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PV demand is still concentrated this year, and overcapacity in Europe has caused prices to fall.
“I personally feel that the global PV market will continue to show an upward trend in 2011, but the momentum will slow down.†Dr. Murray Cameron, President of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), last week's SNEC 5th (2011) International Solar Energy At the Industry and Photovoltaic Engineering (Shanghai) Exhibition and Forum, the reporter of the "First Financial Daily" said this. When the PV industry experienced a surge in product prices in 2008, a sudden drop in 2009, and a high-profile recovery in 2010, it is gradually transitioning to normal orbit. Experts and industry insiders are also trying to answer three questions about the industry: What will be the demand this year? Where is the potential market? What problems still exist in the industry and how to solve them? Demand will continue to grow At this PV Forum, companies are feeling that the PV orders on hand are now sufficient. A senior executive of Jiangsu Greenbaoer Photovoltaic Co., Ltd. told this reporter that the production line is now full every day and it is expected to ship 100 MW in the first half of the year. According to the investigation of Guolian Securities, several major PV companies, including Yingli Green Energy, can basically cover the production capacity in the first half of the year. A senior executive of Shanghai Juheng Solar Energy Co., Ltd. told reporters that the photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year is relatively good. The possible reason is that the German PV price subsidy reduction policy will be in the second half of the year, and the reduction policy is not as big as originally expected. The reduction of PV price subsidies in Italy and other places has not been announced yet, and its implementation time is similar to that of Germany. It is estimated that the installed capacity of the German and Italian markets this year may be more than 120% last year. Zhao Yuwen, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that there will be detailed data on PV installations last year in March. "But most people expect installations to be around 15G watts to 16G watts in 2010." According to French local media Reported that in 2011 the French government may change the previous subsidy policy for the project to cap. In the first half of this year, the country's new installed capacity is likely to reach 1,000 megawatts to 2,000 megawatts. If the amount of photovoltaic installation is increased, the demand for manufacturing including polysilicon, silicon wafers, components and photovoltaic equipment will be driven. Jiangxi LDK expects that in May this year, a total of 1600 megawatts of batteries in Hefei, Anhui, will be put into production, and battery component manufacturers including Trina Solar, Suntech Power, CSI Artes, etc. It may be 50% or higher than 2010. Another supplier of PV upstream raw materials, GCL-Poly (03800.HK), plans to gradually increase the production capacity of polysilicon and wafers to three times the current capacity. For example, its polysilicon production capacity will be expanded from 21,000 tons to about 60,000 tons. Andy London, manager of the battery slurry supplier, Heraeus Photovoltaic Business Unit, also said that due to the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry in 2011, the company's output is expected to double. “We have greatly strengthened the company's pulp production in 2010. Now we will continue to increase the factory and expand production capacity.†He also said that the company is also researching a new product line. “We are the latest N. The type of photovoltaic cells are designed with special front and back silver paste products.†The market may be more stable, and the supply of polysilicon and wafers will increase, but not as large as expected. In addition, the production capacity of PV modules is also released faster, so it is difficult to see the surge in component prices in the short term. It is estimated that there will be a volatility in the whole year. PV module prices may fall by around 20%. Wang Liusheng, a researcher at China Merchants Securities (20.24, 0.25, 1.25%), predicts that global component production capacity will be between 30G watts and 40G watts this year, but demand may only be around 20G watts to 25G watts. “European regions have always been The main battlefield of the photovoltaic industry, but this year's demand growth, but still can not keep up with the expansion of PV production. The price of PV prices will be everywhere in Germany and other places, "I think the price decline will exceed 20%. Because at the end of February this year, the price of PV modules has fallen by more than 10% from the end of December last year. "Where is the market? Another question for the photovoltaic industry is: Where is the most promising market? Murray Cameron said that the German market can be launched in the short term, on the one hand from the region's PV price subsidy policy. The intensity is very strong and the policy direction is clear, and the return on investors' returns is also guaranteed. In addition, because the sun exposure conditions in Germany may be more prominent to some extent, “especially in southern Germany, the sun is more abundant. . The larger PV market may be concentrated in Asia and South America, such as China, Singapore, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil in South America. Of course, Saudi Arabia, Australia in the Middle East. And South Africa will also have huge prospects. According to EPIA's forecast, it is estimated that a total of 66 countries are in better sunny conditions, and PV installed capacity is expected to reach 405G watts by 2030, when 300 million people can get stable. Electricity supply accounts for about 2.5% to 6% of the electricity generated by these countries and regions. At present, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in Germany is about 2% of the total electricity in the country. If the installed capacity of photovoltaics can reach 50%, then the whole Germany's photovoltaic industry's development maturity is enough. A government official responsible for the management of the photovoltaic industry told reporters that China's current policy is still based on the "Golden Sun" and other photovoltaic incentive policies have been introduced this year. It is not clear whether the PV price policy will be introduced. The official said that some US companies have chosen to be in China. State-owned enterprises have built photovoltaic power plants, which is based on the fact that the former is not sure of the PV price in the Chinese market. The US company is the first solar cell manufacturer, First Solar. On January 5 this year, First Solar and China Guangdong Nuclear Power Solar Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “CGNâ€) signed a memorandum of understanding, and the two parties will jointly develop a 30 MW AC project for Erdos (21.00, 0.31, 1.50%) photovoltaic power plants. In this memorandum, CGNPC will be responsible for the project construction, procurement and construction (EPC) work as the main body of the project. According to the news released by the first solar energy, the company is expected to build a total of 2G watt photovoltaic power plants in Ordos. The completion of the fourth phase, it is estimated that all projects will end in 2019. 2G watts may be equivalent to about 4 times the total installed PV in China last year. "The domestic PV market has been opened, but compared to some overseas regions, the intensity does not seem to be big enough. Assuming that the PV price in each region cannot be determined, some investors who are very cautious and have their own funds to develop will feel more adventurous. Moreover, the price of PV modules in the Chinese market is often kept low, so the willingness of component factories to supply directly to the power station is not strong enough. Wang Liusheng stressed that the opinion of Jingao Solar CEO Fang Peng is more clear. He believes that the PV industry association, the current bidding and the state's policies on the photovoltaic industry have not played a large role in stimulating the start of the industry. China) should shorten the learning cycle as soon as possible. "If it is not resolved from the policy, the industry will be difficult to develop. However, the aforementioned officials also believe that enterprises cannot rely solely on national policies, but need to reduce costs and increase efficiency through market competition. Wang Liusheng said that if there is no bidding low price, the cost of components and other links will not be strong. Compression, it is even less likely to reduce the price of photovoltaics. What problems need to be solved? Under the fiery heat, what issues should China's PV industry need to pay enough attention to? Trina Solar (TSL.NYSE) Director Gao Jifan, CEO and CEO, said that counterfeit goods in overseas markets are really a headache. "No matter whether it is a famous trademark or a non-famous trademark, there will be counterfeit products. I think this is a kind of harm to Chinese companies. In addition, although the Philippines and other countries have great potential for demand in the photovoltaic industry, after all, the investment in photovoltaic power plants is long-term. If there is no double insurance for political and economic development, then the investment attraction of photovoltaic power plants in the region is still not attractive. In fact, when a photovoltaic power station is built, based on the annual PV price subsidy, the power station is estimated to have a fixed rate of return of 6% each year. However, if the government cuts all the original subsidies, then the power station can only It’s an empty shell, and the company will lose its money. Whether the future industry leaders are growing PV companies or some large multinational companies. Fang Peng has pointed out that some large companies have already acquired PV companies in China (most famous) The example is that South Korea’s Hanwha Group has acquired Jiangsu Linyang Solar.) In addition, China must have some national-level laboratories or international-level laboratories to strengthen investment through cooperation in order to continue to make its own manufacturing technology and R&D technology. has seen an increase.