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Multi-party game, dark war, turbulent power shortage, forced energy marketization
Although the National Development and Reform Commission denied the rumors of rising electricity prices last month, it suddenly announced at the end of last month that the sales price was raised by an average of 0.03 yuan per kWh (not including residential electricity). At the same time, temporary price intervention measures were implemented on coal for power generation, stipulating that the increase in contracted coal prices in 2012 should not exceed 5% of the previous year's contract price. This is also the second "intervention" after the NDRC conducted a temporary intervention on the price of thermal coal in June 2008. At the start of the annual coal contract negotiations, the “intervention†of the NDRC at this time is more intriguing. The resource tax reform initiated in early November has made the entanglement of interests between the western provinces and the eastern provinces more complicated, and at the same time added variables to the coal-fired price game. The industry believes that the increase in electricity prices may solve the urgent need for coal-fired stalemate, but the price of electricity and coal prices will not be broken until the price of electricity rises. Many experts have said that monopoly and opacity are the root causes of the "electricity shortage". Breaking the monopoly and deepening the reform of the electricity market system is the fundamental solution. The relevant person in charge of the China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as the China Electricity Council) also said that to resolve the tight supply and demand situation of electricity, from a deeper level, it is necessary to gradually form a scientific and reasonable electricity price formation mechanism. Hong Kong Commercial Daily reporter Deng Mingyu's root cause of power shortage: the price of electricity cannot catch up with the price of coal . The price adjustment is the third price adjustment this year, and each time the price adjustment is at the time of "electricity shortage", the "price adjustment" is questioned. When the electricity price was raised for the first time this year, it caused a lot of controversy in the industry. Even the relevant officials and scholars of the power sector themselves admit that "the price hike has no fundamental relationship with the power shortage." Bai Jianhua, deputy chief economist and director of the Strategic Planning Institute of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, said that the root cause of the power shortage is China Power. Structural problems in the industry. Among them, the lack of cross-regional power transmission capacity, one of the examples is when Huazhong, East China and other power shortages have to be limited. Because of the lack of transport channels, China's largest "power supply" in Inner Mongolia, about one-third of the thermal power units in the Mengxi power grid were forced to stop, and more than 42% of the wind turbines abandoned the wind. At the same time, some analysts pointed out that in 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the electricity price in some areas twice: from April 10, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the on-grid price of 12 provinces, the increase rate is around 0.02 yuan / kWh; June 1 The National Development and Reform Commission also raised the sales price and on-grid price of non-residents in 15 provinces and cities. However, since March this year, domestic coal prices have soared in the off-season. Take Qinhuangdao Shanxi You Mix 5500 kcal coal price as an example. In March 2011, the price was about 770 yuan / ton, and has now risen to 860 yuan / ton. Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, said that for every 0.01 yuan increase in electricity price, the cost of coal is only 28 yuan per ton, and the price increase of coal far exceeds this. Especially after the price increase, coal will increase in price. Therefore, the price increase is a drop in the bucket for alleviating the losses of power companies. The power shortage has been forced to force the price of the palace. Recently, the country's largest power gap is about 40 million kilowatts. The contradiction between power supply and demand in Central China and South China, which lacks coal and lacks water, is most prominent. The relevant person in charge of the China Electricity Council recently told the media that the domestic coal price continued to rise and the electricity price failed to be linked in time, which was the root cause of the power shortage and the serious losses of the thermal power enterprises. The coal-electricity contradictions accumulated over the years have tended to deteriorate this year and will have a major impact on China's power security. At the same time, the relevant person in charge of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission also said that the lack of coal shutdown resulted in low utilization of large-capacity units. The industry report released by China Electricity Council recently showed that from January to July this year, the total power loss of Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian and China Power Investment Corporation's five power generation groups totaled 7.46 billion yuan, an increase of 8.27 billion yuan, including thermal power business loss of 180.9. 100 million yuan, an increase of 11.3 billion yuan. According to the statistics of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, due to the high coal price, the thermal power industry in power companies is in a state of serious losses. Since 2008, the five major power companies have suffered losses in recent years. During the three years from 2008 to 2010, the accumulated losses of thermal power in the five major power companies reached 60.257 billion yuan. If you count other thermal power companies, the loss of the thermal power industry, which has fallen into a quagmire in recent years, may reach hundreds of billions of yuan. The proportion of thermal power generation in China is as high as 70%-80%. Regardless of how the thermal power business loses, thermal power is the most important component of China's power generation industry, and the pattern is difficult to change in the short term. Therefore, some experts said that large-scale thermal power bankruptcy is impossible. Once the thermal power enterprises are difficult to support, the government will inevitably increase the feed-in tariff. At the same time, the position of the power sector emphasizes that the rise in coal prices and the rise in electricity prices are the root cause of the "electricity shortage", and even the necessity of rising electricity prices is expressed by the height of "electricity safety." It is worth noting that in April and June this year, the power sector has raised electricity prices twice in a row. Both of these upward adjustments were during the "electricity shortage" period. Some commentators said that the power sector has forced the "electricity price" of the palace with the toughness of "taking power and self-respect", showing the industry's "overlord". Especially in the "electricity shortage" period, regardless of the will of the central government, the will of the power sector cannot be ignored. The final result of raising the price of electricity is the best evidence. The resource tax reform has intensified the contradiction between coal and electricity. The coal price in the Mainland is even stronger at the time of power shortage in winter. Although CCTV and other official media have conducted in-depth discussions on the phenomenon of high coal prices, and pointed out that the reason for the high coal price is mainly due to the high transportation costs. However, with the start of the resource tax reform, the reason for the high coal price seems to be far more than the high freight rate. An intriguing phenomenon is that the resource tax reform has just started, and trade associations in Shanxi and other western resource provinces have begun to require coal enterprises to limit production. Why does the new resource tax directly lead to "limited production"? Some experts have analyzed that the resource tax is still being implemented, which makes many western provinces think that the increased resource tax is not enough compared with the local environmental protection. On the other hand, an industry insider in the east bluntly said that even if the power shortage is serious, it is difficult to increase the inventory from the western coal, because the large coal-producing provinces only release the external transportation if they guarantee sufficient supply of coal. coal. Of course, this is also to maintain the benefits of the local downstream industry. According to industry analysts, the power generation of 1 ton of standard coal is about 3,300 kWh, and this 1 ton of coal is worth more than 500 yuan for the big coal-producing province. The local area only receives a resource tax of up to 8 yuan; but 3300 The kilowatt-hour industrial electricity is worth about 3,000 yuan, and the tax revenue generated at the local level is far greater than 30 yuan, which is not a local benefit generated by other downstream industries. Therefore, the essence of the game between resource provinces and resource-consuming provinces is regional GDP and financial benefits. A further step behind it is the game between local government performance and interests. In the case of resource shortages and continued power shortages, some economically developed provinces in the east, that is, resource-consuming provinces, have taken measures to increase energy conservation and emission reduction. Taking Guangdong as an example, the latest statistics show that in the first three quarters of this year, Guangdong's electricity consumption increased by 8.66%, supporting 10.1% of GDP growth. Low power support and high growth fully demonstrate the progress of energy saving and emission reduction in Guangdong. It is reported that Guangdong has basically established a long-term mechanism for orderly power management. The mechanism is organized by the government according to the annual power supply and demand balance forecast and the relevant state policy organization, and is implemented by the local power supply bureaus. In accordance with the national energy conservation and emission reduction policy requirements, priority is given to ensuring the electricity demand of high value-added enterprises, and strictly restricting the use of electricity by enterprises with high energy consumption, high pollution, high input and low output. It is under this mechanism that Guangdong, the largest economic province with a GDP of 1/9 of the country, has a maximum power consumption peak load of 7.4 million kilowatts, which minimizes the impact of power shortage on the economy.