Petrochemical industry will face deep structural adjustment

Statistics show that in the first two months of this year, China’s petrochemical industry is facing unprecedented severe challenges, and the benefits continue to decline, which is a 61.8% year-on-year decline.

At the 2015 petrochemical industry development conference recently held in Beijing, several industry experts pointed out that the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” will be a period of low and medium oil prices. As the uncertainties faced by the development of China’s petrochemical industry continue to increase, the industry structure will become more inconsistent. Sharpening, the petrochemical industry has reached a new stage where it must rely more on technological innovation to lead and support industrial transformation and upgrading. Under such circumstances, the "13th Five-Year Plan" for the petrochemical industry should make major changes in its development strategy.

Increased uncertainty

In the fields of petroleum and chemical industry, the global industrial structure has been deeply adjusted. With the advantage of scientific and technological innovation, advanced economies have accelerated the diversification of raw materials and high-end products, which has created great competitive pressure on China's petroleum and chemical industries. In particular, since the second half of last year, with the sharp fall in international oil prices, the instability and uncertainties in the development of China's petrochemical industry have continued to increase.

“It is expected that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, oil prices will continue to move in the middle and low levels. The global oil supply and demand will remain relatively loose until 2020, and there will be no significant rebound in demand. The oil price will remain at 50-90 USD/barrel, and it may stabilize in the later period. "The dean of the Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning of China, said Bai Yu.

Bai Xi made a research and analysis on the development of China's petrochemical industry under low oil prices. She pointed out that in 2014, at the initial stage of falling oil prices, oil and gas and chemical consumption still maintained a certain increase, which had little impact on the economic benefits of the upstream industrial chain of the industry. However, after the declining trend has continued for a certain period of time, the overall macro economy has become weak, and the profit point of the industry has shown a trend of shifting to downstream products in the industrial chain. Taken together, in 2014, the growth rate of the industrial output value was less than 10%, and the contribution rate of the midstream and downstream industrial chain products was prominent.

“Under the current pricing mechanism for oil products, the oil refining industry and oil refining companies, including oil refining, have a significant positive volatility in oil industry prices. The higher the oil price, the higher the profitability of oil companies; the lower oil prices and the higher profitability of enterprises. According to historical data, the profit level of the chemical industry is relatively stable, and when the crude oil (Brent) price is between 70 and 90 US dollars/barrel, the profit level of the chemical industry is the best, and too high or too low oil prices are not conducive to industry profitability. If during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the oil price (Brent) can be maintained at 70-90 U.S. dollars per barrel, it will be the best profitable range for the chemical industry, and it will also ensure that our coal chemical industry will be competitive." He further said.

According to data from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, from the current appearance (under current static conditions such as coal price), the profit and loss points of coal gas and coal oil products are at the price of 65-75 U.S. dollars per barrel and 75 respectively. - 85 US dollars / barrel, chemical products such as olefins and methanol, the profit and loss point in the oil price of 65-70 US dollars / barrel.

Change from "Following" to "Leading"

The reporter learned from the meeting that, from the perspective of economic aggregates, at present, the total amount of petroleum and chemical industry in China ranks second in the world, second only to the United States. The total chemical industry exceeds that of the United States and ranks first in the world. However, the income level of the main business of China's petroleum and chemical industry is still lower than that of the United States.

"Although China's economic fundamentals have not changed for a long time, economic growth has shifted gears, transformation of development methods, and industrial restructuring have caused pains in the development of enterprises, constraints on resources and environment, oversupply of production capacity, rapid increase in costs, and decline in product prices. Such as the formation of the market forced mechanism, the industry is facing a series of outstanding contradictions and challenges." Li Shousheng, executive vice president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation.

The data shows that in 2014, the cost of the petroleum and chemical industries continued to rise. The main operating income cost per 100 yuan was 84.40 yuan, an increase of 0.84 yuan year-on-year. In the first two months of this year, the efficiency of the petrochemical industry continued to decline, dropping by 61.8% year-on-year.

"Although China's petroleum and chemical industries have made some breakthroughs in the technology of high-end chemical products in recent years, there is still a considerable gap between the total capacity and the overall level of technological innovation and developed countries in the world. Therefore, overall, Look, China's oil and chemical industry's product technology structure is still low-end, backward and homogenized." Li Shousheng pointed out.

Experts at the meeting pointed out that the next five years will be a crucial period for China's petrochemical industry to "turn the way and adjust the structure." Leapfrogging from a petrochemical country to a strong country is the strategic goal of the industry's "13th Five-Year Plan" development. To achieve this goal, the “13th Five-Year Plan for Development” should make a major change in its development strategy, and it should be committed to shifting from a "following type" strategy to a "leadership type" strategy, or to a hybrid strategy that combines both. .

Innovation is an important driving force

In Li Shousheng’s view, the key to transforming China’s “large petrochemical industrial country” to “a powerful petrochemical industrial country” is to formulate a centered on independent innovation and an emphasis on the upgrading of industrial structure, in order to leapfrog a large petrochemical country to a strong country. The goal is to upgrade the industrial structure.

Li Shousheng pointed out that in the past, the growth model of the petrochemical industry was an expansion of scale, relying primarily on labor cost advantages to gain market competitiveness. The limited ability to innovate has become a weak link in the development of the entire industry. The R&D investment intensity of enterprises is generally low, and the lack of technological innovation talents. The collaborative innovation system of production, learning, and research with enterprises as the main body has not yet been fully established. The transformation rate of scientific and technological achievements in the entire industry is only about 30%, which is difficult to form a strong support for industrial transformation and upgrading.

Experts pointed out that currently China's petrochemical basic products have become saturated, and there is a huge market for high-end products, which will become a new opportunity for the development of the petrochemical industry.

Bai Hao believes that the development strategy of the “13th Five-Year Plan” for the petrochemical and chemical industries should be based on the optimization of the petrochemical industry, new chemical energy, new chemical materials, and traditional chemical industry as the main development direction, with diversified raw material routes and high-end product structure. , Intensive industrial layout, ecologicalization of energy conservation and environmental protection as the main development path, with science and technology innovation and institutional innovation as the main driving force, promote China's petrochemical industry transformation and upgrading.

Premier Li Keqiang proposed to implement "Made in China 2025" in this year's "Government Work Report." According to sources, "Made in China 2025" has now been reviewed by the State Council's executive meeting and will be officially released in the near future.

"'Made in China 2025' is a three-step action plan for the first 10 years. The petrochemical chemical industry is an important part of China's manufacturing. Therefore, we must implement the outline of the 'Made in China 2025' plan in the formulation of the industry plan and stick to it. Innovation-driven and intelligent transformation.” said Pan Aihua, Deputy Director of Raw Materials Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

Li Shousheng believes that high-end petroleum and chemical manufacturing (mainly including chemical new energy, new materials, high-tech fine chemicals, and modern coal chemical and other sophisticated technologies and petrochemical products for new markets), strategic emerging petroleum and chemical industry Industries (mainly including life sciences, bioengineering, chemical pharmaceuticals, high-end new materials, environmental engineering, etc.) will become the general trend of industrial restructuring and should be the investment direction that the industry will focus on in the future.