Methanol price in recent months is strong

Current price difference

Methanol prices rebounded for three consecutive weeks and fell back on Thursday. Participants were not enthusiastic and the market was not optimistic. The spot price of Jiangsu's ports was stable at around RMB 2,720/t, and the current price difference was slightly higher. Shandong manufacturers shipped quotation stabilized, Lunan reported at 2480 yuan / ton, compared with the benchmark price of 240 yuan / ton, there is a good arbitrage space. Shandong's cargo will impact the east China port market for some time to come.

Import costs

At the beginning of the week, the price of methanol in the outer disk rose. The quoted price of CFR China's main port rose by US$4/ton to US$360/ton, which was converted into the duty-paid price of imported CFCs at 2,780 yuan/ton, which was higher than the domestic port methanol price during the same period. It is understood that due to the earlier period of sharp rise in Europe and the United States methanol prices, the market part of the goods flow to Europe and the United States, is expected in December domestic imports to Hong Kong will be reduced to support the external disk prices.

Port inventory

Port stocks began to rise. According to statistics, last week's port stocks showed a pick-up trend, with Jiangsu port stocks rising to more than 430,000 tons, and South China port stocks rising to 130,000 tons. Although the market is expected to reduce the amount of imported methanol to the international market, due to the considerable arbitrage between the price gap between southern Shandong and Jiangsu, Shandong domestic methanol is transported to ports in large quantities to increase port inventory.

Upstream raw materials

The domestic thermal coal price fell weakly. This week, the price index for the Bohai-Round Coal (Q5500) fell to RMB 638/ton, which was RMB 2/ton lower than last week, indicating that domestic coal prices remained weak. In November, China imported nearly 29 million tons of coal, a record high. The market’s demand for coal increased, while domestic coal prices were affected by imported coal and prices fell.

technical analysis

The price of the methanol index began to fall after touching the upper 2790 pressure level on Tuesday, and the price fell on Thursday with the collective chemical industry weakening. From a technical point of view, there is a golden dividing line under the support, with the KD indicator turning its head high to form a Sicha, showing negative trends. Judging from the domestic commodity futures market, chemical products have shown signs of weakening, and they have maintained negative thinking in the later period.

Operation suggestion

The current spot price of methanol is stable. The impact of methanol on the port market in Shandong Province has a certain impact on the port price and inventory in the later period, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price-intensity capability in Shandong in the later period. In addition, the domestic methanol production capacity of coke oven gas gradually increased, due to lower costs, lower the average price of the methanol market. Taken together, the previous year's price of methanol may be consolidated, and the probability of significant volatility is relatively small. It is advisable to operate short-term, focusing on support at 2,700 points.