Ammonium Phosphate in Xia City has become difficult to come by

In the first three months of this year, the domestic ammonium phosphate market is expected to continue for manufacturers and distributors, but disappointment continues. In summary, ammonium phosphate has been tepid and stumbled along the way. Looking ahead to the summer market, due to the continuation of the domestic surplus and the lack of optimism in the international market, it is very difficult for ammonium phosphate to rise.

Looking forward to Lianlianlihao limited profit in the second half of 2012, the two major bad markets have laid haze for the market this spring: First, the domestic and international diammonium market continued to slump in the second half; Second, domestic manufacturers and distributors have been pessimistic about diammonium export since the fourth quarter. These two factors directly led to negative domestic stockpiles of winter storage since November last year.

However, the two good news in mid-December last year and mid-February this year have also given a boost to the domestic ammonium phosphate market, which has caused the price curve of ammonium phosphate to rise twice in the first quarter.

One of the positives is the release of the New Deal for Chemical Fertilizer Exports in mid-December last year. According to the policy, in 2013, the three major ammonium phosphate exports were loosened: In the tax rate, the export tariffs for diammonium and monoammonium fell from 7% to 5% in the off-season; in terms of time, the off-season export window period was extended by one month (May 16~ October 15); On the price, the export base price for 64% diammonium off-season rose by 100 yuan to 3,500 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the 57% diammonium export base price was raised by 300 yuan to 3,200 yuan.

At the beginning of this policy, the industry generally believed that it would form a strong pull on the price of ammonium phosphate in winter storage. From the monitoring of the front-line market by this newspaper, the news did indeed have a positive effect on the warming of ammonium phosphate, but the effect was far less than expected.

According to the newspaper data, in early December, diammonium manufacturers to stimulate dealers winter reserve goods, 64% diammonium northeast to the station price once fell to nearly 3,000 yuan, northeast large dealers shop delivery price is also as low as 3,150 yuan. Two weeks after the Tariffs were issued, the main northeastern diammonium arrived in mid-January and rose to 3,150 to 3,200 yuan, and the wholesale price rose to 3,200 yuan. Compared to diammonium, monoammonium reacts more sensitively. Before and after January, domestic monoammonium market experienced price increases for the first time after four months of heavy losses. Before and after January, orders from Hubei, Sichuan, and Anhui increased, and the 55% powder factory price quickly rose to 2350-2370 yuan. The price increase this time has also become the only rise of ammonium in the spring market.

The good news of the New Tariff has only lasted for less than a month. Afterwards, the domestic diammonium went into dullness and the monoammonium warmed up again into the winter. According to the newspaper's monitoring, from mid-January to mid-February, the wholesale of diammonium mainstream in the northeast is maintained at about 3,250 yuan, and the goods are taken as the main force; the wholesale goods in the North China and Northwest markets are also on the sidelines. During this period, one ammonium was cold and gradually concentrated, and the 55% powder mainstream factory report dropped to 2,300 yuan, but orders were still hovering.

The second benefit for the diammonium market this spring is the iron price adjustment in mid-February. On February 17th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document stating that the freight rates for the railways were raised. The domestic fertiliser price for fertilizers rose by RMB 15/t per kilometer. This is undoubtedly a decisive factor for ammonium diammonium, which generally requires long-distance railway transportation. Because February is still in the peak season for preparing spring planting plants, the price adjustment of iron transport will directly lead to the increase in the cost of arrivals, and the desire of dealers to grow will be strong. Manufacturers will also have the desire to push up. An interview with this reporter showed that the price of iron transport directly led to a rise in diammonium prices from late February to early March. In early March, the wholesale price of diammonium in northeast China rose to 3,300 to 3,350 yuan, and the offer price of manufacturers arrived at 30 to 50 yuan. However, this round of price hike lasted only for more than ten days. After continued low temperatures and spring floods in the northeast and large quantities of North China's spare parts, diammonium fell into a quiet state when it was time to stop. The northeast and north China markets have not yet emerged. Shipped in Vaughan City.

Unlike diammonium, the price of iron transport has not been favorable to mono-ammonium production. Instead, mono-ammonium has entered the down channel: the mainstream ex-factory price of 55% powder dropped from 2,300 yuan to 2,200 yuan. It has not yet bottomed out. The reason for this is that some companies have revealed to reporters that the prices of iron shipments have caused the compound fertilizer companies that originally required signing materials to wait and see. "Compound fertilizer plant is more than a single ammonium preparation, the freight rate increases, the company originally intended to buy at the bottom of the purchase began to consider taking goods from the hands of the surrounding traders, manufacturers receiving orders is very poor." Sichuan manufacturers said.

From December of last year's tariff new policy to the mid-February mid-February price adjustment, the domestic ammonium phosphate market has stumbled all the way this spring. Both favors have not pulled the ammonium phosphate out of the low price quagmire, and domestic sales have not seen strong sales in spring. situation.

In the face of the surplus manufacturers, the first time in the domestic market, the repeated breakthrough of the ammonium phosphate market has fallen into silence. The fundamental reason for this is that supply exceeds demand. In this case, although the manufacturers hold group battles, the overall profitability is still not optimistic.

According to statistics from the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, China's output of diammonium reached 14.66 million tons in 2012, an increase of 15% over the same period of last year, reaching 1.91 million tons. Last year, exports of diammonium 39.34 million tons decreased by 2.1% year-on-year. The increase in output was reduced, which led to an increase of nearly 2 million tons of domestic diammonium supply last year.

Specific to the supply and demand of the ammonium phosphate market in the first quarter, the overall situation is in serious oversupply. According to the data provided by the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, at the end of September 2012, diammonium enterprises had an inventory of 1.26 million tons, and the total output in the fourth quarter was 3.89 million tons, and the export volume was 1.23 million tons. According to the analysis, the first quarter of 2013 was a period of high tariffs. Under normal circumstances, there will be 3.9 million tons of diammonium entering the market. As a whole, the winter storage and diammonium market supply in spring will exceed 7.8 million tons, while the demand for diammonium in spring will not exceed 5.4 million tons. The impact of over 2 million tons of diammonium excess production on the spring market can be imagined. In this case, it is not difficult to understand that diammonium has been tepid for two consecutive years.

Compared to diammonium, monoammonium prices are more clear. In 2011, the dual-fertilizer export momentum pushed the mono-ammonium to a rare boom. Last year, the double-folding of the dual-fertilizer and the mono-ammonium export pushed the mono-ammonium into the bottom. According to customs data, a total of 595,000 tons of ammonium had been exported last year, down 31.2% year-on-year, and the previous two-factor export of monoammonium indirectly exported less than 1 million tons, which was a 70% drop from the same period last year. Last year, when the production of ammonium changed little compared to the same period of last year, this export temptation had a direct negative impact on the ammonium market in the first quarter of this year. According to the newspaper's monitoring, since the spring of February this year, especially the Spring Festival, due to the expectation of the domestic spring plowing market and the export of the New Deal, the domestic ammonium utilization rate has rebounded significantly from the end of last year. Last year's surplus plus the increase in production this spring, a single ammonium continues to decline. Shen is hard to reverse.

In the face of continued depressing market conditions, the company's strategy of uniting and building ammonium phosphate stabilized became a major aspect of the market in the first quarter. Diammonium has shown the trend of the manufacturers to cross the border since the end of November last year. According to past practice, shortly after the end of the annual production and sales of phosphate and compound fertilizer, the large companies in Southwest China will throw a settlement price to stabilize the winter storage market. However, last year it did not, until after the delay in February before this year, large manufacturers announced the settlement price one after another. Until now, they had been sending goods to the downstream with prepayments, guaranteed deposits, and interest-bearing, and the settlement price had remained unresolved for a long time. This approach has, to a certain extent, promoted the progress of the large wholesalers' procurement and ensured the continuous operation of the company. From the monitoring point of this newspaper, the company's Baotuan only realized the low-profit and even capital-protection operations.

According to the first quarter of this year, domestic ** to the factory price of 1,300 yuan, phosphate rock and synthetic ammonia are based on market prices, the first quarter of domestic 64% of the mainstream price of diammonium in the 2800 yuan, while shaved to interest rates, security and other policy preferences, the Northeast The actual mainstream price of diammonium in the previous winter was about 3,100 yuan. To eliminate shipping costs, manufacturers' profit margin is less than 100 yuan. The profitability of dealers is not optimistic. In March, the wholesale sales of diammonium from dealers in North China and Northeast China had dropped to 3,200 yuan. Even if the integrated manufacturers provide the winter storage policy, the profitability of dealers is also very small.

The mono-ammonium situation is even more tragic. Purchasing raw materials according to the current market price, the manufacturer's 55% monoammonium cost price is about 2,300 yuan, and the current ex-factory price of monoammonium in the spring has been in the ups and downs of 2,300 yuan. At the end of March, it was depressed to 2200 yuan or so. The profitability of the company is evident. The majority of private enterprises are ammonium, which are sensitive to the market reaction. The deep trend of ammonium in this spring can be described as the most genuine reflection of the phosphate supply and demand situation.

Difficulties inside and outside the summer market to look forward to the summer market, ammonium phosphate is facing both internal and external pressures, making it difficult to get started.

From the domestic point of view, the summer will enter the high nitrogen fertilizer season, and the demand for phosphate fertilizer will be significantly weakened. Diammonium has a large excess supply in spring, and more than 2 million tons of diammonium surplus will be transferred to the summer market. A small amount of domestic digestion will be absorbed by the export.

According to the usual practice, starting from May, the trend and expectation of domestic ammonium phosphate will mainly depend on the export situation, but at present, the international market is not optimistic. In the first quarter of this year, the prices of major international diammonium distribution centers were all lower than last year. In the first quarter of 2012, Saudi Arabia’s diammonium FOB prices were maintained at US$540-625, while this year’s prices were maintained at US$470-530, with spreads ranging from US$70 to US$95. Outside of Saudi Arabia, the first half of this year, the price of the Baltic Sea off the Baltic Sea, also fell sharply from the same period of last year. The spread was at most 130 US dollars and the lowest was 40 US dollars. Although international diammonium FOB prices have continued to rise since March this year, the current FOB prices are still 10 to 40 US dollars lower than the same period last year. In April, international diammonium stagnated and remained at 510-530 U.S. dollars, which is still lower than the US$550 FOB price in the 2012 window period. Last year, the FOB price of US$550 had left the company on the verge of a loss. If the international diammonium market did not improve significantly before mid-May this year, the export situation this year will be rather severe.

From the perspective of international demand, the current purchase of diammonium in India is still deserted, and Saudi Arabia’s export of ammonium phosphate to China has intensified. Demand is not strong, prices are low, and diammonium export prospects are not optimistic.

An ammonium international market is also not optimistic. In the first quarter of this year, FOB Baltic's FOB price fell by 40 to 60 US dollars compared with the same period of last year, and Morocco's drop was also above 40 US dollars. Such a low price can only make domestic manufacturers look abroad.

Raw material prices are also difficult to form a support for the ammonium phosphate market. In the first quarter of this year, China's CIF price remained low year-on-year. Since January, ** China CIF prices have remained at around US$170, compared with around US$205 during the same period last year. With the prices of synthetic ammonia and phosphate rock held steady year-on-year, the current prices have already lowered the manufacturers' expectations for the future market.

In summary, domestic demand is not in season, international prices are low, raw materials support is weak, and the ammonium phosphate market is still difficult to emerge from the summer.