October changes in oil prices most of the gas station sales promotions

During the long domestic holidays, the international crude oil market is not calm. Many factors, such as weak economic data, disputes in Turkey and Syria, have caused the international oil price to soar.

Experts believe that unless the international oil price continues to fall sharply, the expected reduction in domestic oil prices in October may not be realized. However, due to the relative abundance of domestic oil resources, many gas stations are competing to promote “benefit” and consumers are expected to enjoy “price reduction benefits” in advance.

International Oil Market Represents "Roller Coaster"

During the long domestic holidays in China, under the influence of weak economic data and geo-strategic tensions, the international oil price has experienced a “roller coaster” that has plunged.

The newly announced September China Service PMI and the Eurozone PMI both fell sharply. The signs of a slowdown in China's economy have emerged, the degree of economic contraction in the euro zone has deepened, and the market's concerns about global oil demand have increased. On October 3, the New York WTI oil price fell below the $90 mark and closed at $88.14 a barrel, a decrease of 4.08%; Brent oil fell below the $110 mark and closed at $108.17 a barrel. The decrease was 3.05%.

However, international oil prices have not been sluggish. With the escalation of the conflict between Turkey and Syria, the oil supply in the Middle East has been greatly affected, and international oil prices have been pushed up significantly. On October 4, the international oil market almost completely restored the decline in the previous trading day. New York WTI oil prices and Brent oil prices rose more than 4%.

On the last trading day of the first week of October (October 5th), New York's WTI oil price fell another 2%, falling back to below 90 dollars per barrel; Brent oil price fell 56 cents, still at 110 dollars per barrel Above.

Chen Chaoze, a senior analyst at Galaxy Chemicals, said that since the beginning of October, international oil prices have fallen more or less, but Brent's oil prices have been supported by geopolitical factors, and the trend has clearly been stronger than New York's WTI oil prices. Among them, the New York WTI oil price fell by a total of 2.31 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 2.51%; Brent oil price decline is relatively limited, only 37 cents per barrel, a decrease of 0.33%.

In October, the domestic oil price cut still remains variable According to China's current "Oil Prices Management Measures (Trial)", when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes for more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted accordingly.

The latest domestic oil price adjustment was on September 11. In theory, the time for a new round of domestic oil price adjustments on October 10 will be met. Taking into account the performance of the previous international oil price shocks, research institutions had predicted that the domestic oil price is expected to usher in a downward adjustment in late October.

On October 3, the international oil price plummeted and hopes for a reduction in domestic oil prices increased. The international oil price rebounded sharply the following day, and the domestic market's original expectation of a drop in oil prices was disrupted.

According to the monitoring of the East Oil and Gas Network, as of October 5, the change rate of crude oil in the three places was -1.796%, and there was still a certain distance from the -4% drop in oil price to the red line.

"The frequent fluctuations in international oil prices have increased the variable in the domestic oil price later." Cheng Ruifeng, an analyst at Oriental Oil and Gas Network, said that the current Brent oil price is near 112 dollars per barrel. If the Brent oil price runs below 108 dollars per barrel, In late October, the domestic oil price reduction window is expected to open. If Brent’s oil price remains unchanged at the current price, it may be difficult to realize the downward adjustment of oil prices.

Zhong Yu Information analyst Guan Haiwen also believes that due to the recent fluctuations in international oil prices, the decline rate of crude oil changes in the three places began to narrow. If international oil prices did not continue to fall sharply, the conditions for domestic oil price cuts in October may not be met. , The price adjustment window may be postponed.

"Oil shortage" has not appeared at the gas station to compete for "Lee Lee"

Although it is still unclear whether domestic oil price cuts are expected to be fulfilled in October, the current crude oil price changes in the three regions are in negative fluctuations, which means that the probability of oil price cuts is higher than the probability of upward adjustment.

Affected by this, there are relatively few speculations on oil products in the market, and this year, with the overall abundant oil resources, in the September-October in which the “oil shortage” is most likely to occur, not only does the oil shortage appear in the country, but instead Many gas stations competed for price reductions.

At a private gas station in Shanghai’s Baoshan District, the reporter learned that there is a discount of 0.5 yuan per liter for gasoline price 93. According to the preliminary statistics of the national gas station information monitoring website Yukeke.com, after the domestic oil price increase on September 11th, there are nearly 200 gas stations in Beijing that carry out discount promotions. Among them, the maximum discount rate of gasoline per liter can reach 0.65 yuan.

"The private gas station brand is not as loud as PetroChina and Sinopec, and it can only attract customers through price and service." A private gas station chief in Shanghai said that his gas station had long-term price cuts and promotions. This year's profit margin is larger than in previous years, mainly because of the sluggish demand.

The gas station chief told reporters that this year obviously felt that the amount of refueling of logistics vehicles had decreased compared with last year, and the overall sales of gas stations also fell by 35%-40% year-on-year.

An expert from the China Petroleum Planning Institute told the reporter that in September, October and early November, it was the domestic autumn harvest agricultural oil and construction infrastructure oil season. Although there have been short-term oil shortages in individual regions this year, resource dispatch has been quickly resolved. As a whole, the supply of domestic oil products market is relatively abundant this year, and there is a low probability of widespread “oil shortage”.

Xu Peidan, assistant general manager of OilerNet, stated that the weak demand for oil products this year, and gas stations want to promote sales volume, many PetroChina and Sinopec's gas stations, which were rarely discounted in the past, also joined the ranks of sales promotion. If the oil market remains adequate, it is expected that the situation of benign competition in domestic gas stations will continue in the future, and consumers will benefit from it.