Activated Carbon,Palm Shell Activated Carbon,Activated Carbon For Air Purification Women Cashmere Sweater,Men Cashmere Sweater Co., Ltd. , http://www.nxactivatedcharcoal.com
The growth rate of economic indicators continues to fall, and the control policy should still be stable.
The situation of external demand in the first quarter is relatively stable. The previous wave of new European debt defaults has not appeared; there is still room for manoeuvre in domestic demand growth, and the growth rate of related consumption in automobiles and real estate is expected to rebound in the future. These factors determine that the economic downturn is not violent, and the GDP growth rate in the first quarter may reach about 8.5%. Since the first quarter, the growth rate of some economic indicators in China has continued to fall, which has caused all parties to worry about the lack of economic growth. The China Securities Journal believes that the current level of economic growth is still in the normal range, and the macroeconomic regulation and control departments have increased their tolerance for economic growth, and the macro-control policies will remain stable. The regulation and control trend in the past six months can be roughly divided into two stages. The first stage was in the fourth quarter of last year, the tightening policy was partially loosened, and the relevant departments lowered the deposit reserve ratio and appropriately relaxed the new credit supply control. The fine-tuning meaning and effectiveness of these policies are more obvious. In the fourth quarter of last year, GDP increased by 8.9%, only 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous quarter. The monthly growth rate of indicators such as industry and consumption rebounded. The second stage is the first quarter of this year. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank only lowered the deposit reserve ratio in February, and the monetary policy relaxation expected by market participants has failed. What is more noteworthy is that the government lowered the annual economic growth target to 7.5%, and repeatedly stressed that the real estate regulation and control will not be shaken and promote the reasonable return of housing prices. In this context, the performance of some recent macroeconomic data is not enough to “powerâ€. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in January-February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 11.4% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points lower than that of December last year; the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, and the first negative growth occurred in more than two years; The total retail sales of assets and social consumer goods increased by 21.5% and 14.7% respectively, which was significantly lower than that at the end of last year. In this regard, we should see that economic data in January-February is often disturbed by holiday factors, and more data is needed to judge the economic situation. From another perspective, the current economic downturn has not exceeded expectations, and in fact it contains some positive factors. For example, the situation of external demand in the first quarter was relatively stable. The previous wave of new European debt defaults did not appear; there is still room for manoeuvre in domestic demand growth, and the growth rate of related consumption in automobiles and real estate is expected to rebound in the future. These factors determine that the economic downturn is not violent, and the GDP growth rate in the first quarter may reach about 8.5%. In recent years, discussions about the potential slowdown in China’s economy are not uncommon. China Securities Journal believes that due to factors such as the increase in economic base, rising labor costs, and structural adjustment of the world economy, the decline in the potential growth rate of China's economy is the general trend. But this process will not happen overnight, and will not induce a "hard landing" in the short-term. Driven by economic growth drivers such as urbanization, industrialization, and marketization, China's economic growth rate can be maintained at 9% or higher in the next few years, but unlike previous years, the resource cost to achieve rapid growth is Has been significantly improved. Dealing with the relationship of “stable growth, controlling inflation, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihoodâ€, moderate economic growth will be an important prerequisite. Excessive economic growth will bring inflationary pressures and problems such as low growth quality and unbearable resource environment. However, in the future, China will not be unbalanced growth, nor will it have a balanced recession. Too low economic growth will lead to a series of phenomena such as rising unemployment and slow income growth. Under the premise that the domestic and international economic environment does not undergo major changes, the tolerance of the macroeconomic regulation and control sector to moderate economic decline is increasing. The downward adjustment of the expected economic growth rate during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period is largely a voluntary regulation and a proactive move. The macro policy layer's rise in the downward tolerance of economic growth indicates the government's determination to promote economic restructuring, and it also indicates that it will not stimulate economic growth by loosening the currency. This year, China's economic growth target is 7.5%, and the expected growth rate of investment and consumption is lowered to 16% and 14% respectively. Correspondingly, the change center that triggers regulation will also move down accordingly. For now, the risk of economic downturn is higher than the overheated economy. In this regard, the overall direction of the demand policy will still be loose, but the specific strength may be limited. Among them, under the premise of maintaining a sound tone, monetary policy should ensure the necessary liquidity of the real economy, and there is still much room for further reduction of the deposit reserve ratio, but the conditions for completely turning to easing policy are not yet available. In terms of fiscal policy, the proportion of fiscal deficit to GDP continued to decline this year. The marginal promotion of fiscal expenditure to GDP growth has decreased, and the people's livelihood sector has continued to be the focus of financial support.