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On August 23, according to my steel network monitoring data, the average price of Φ20mmHRB335 rebar in 24 major cities nationwide was 4157 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the previous day's price; the average price of 3.0mm hot coil was 4365 yuan. / ton, down 33 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. The monitoring of the domestic spot trading platform Xiben Shinkansen shows that the mainstream price of wire and thread in Shanghai is lowered by RMB 20/ton, and the market bearish atmosphere is more obvious.
From the perspective of the futures market, the day's steel plummeted, and the main thread 1101 contract finally closed at 4,261 yuan / ton, down 67 yuan / ton from the previous working day settlement price, a drop of 1.55%.
Even rose for 5 weeks, exceeding 350 yuan / ton
After the domestic steel market rebounded and rebounded in mid-July, steel prices have risen for five consecutive weeks. As of August 20, the average price of Ф6.5mm high line, Ф18-25mm rebar, 20mm medium plate, 5.75mm hot roll and 1.0mm cold plate of 28 major cities in the country rose compared with mid-July. 410 yuan / ton, 364 yuan / ton, 377 yuan / ton, 297 yuan / ton, 281 yuan / ton.
Just last week, first-line steel mills collectively pushed up. Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Anshan Iron and Steel (000898) and other steel mills collectively raised prices, ranging from 150-1000 yuan / ton, of which Baosteel rose more moderately. However, on August 21, Shagang introduced some product price policies in late August, the price of high-line and rebar remained unchanged. The ex-factory price of Φ14-25mmHRB335 rebar is now 4130 yuan/ton, which also shows the steel factory's cautiousness for the market outlook. .
At present, for the steel industry, the steel prices of various varieties have generally rebounded from the bottom by more than 350 yuan/ton. So far, the willingness to sell the plates and the set of plates has begun to strengthen, and after the terminal has actively stocked the goods, the recent purchase intention has begun to turn. weak. Coupled with the frequent fluctuations in the property market, the peripheral market data is bearish, dragging down the overall decline in the capital market, and the demand wait-and-see atmosphere is naturally more intense.
Steel price rise pressure reproduction
According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten days of August, the steel association members produced a total of 14.13 million tons of crude steel, and estimated that the national crude steel output was 17.19 million tons, and the daily output was 141.3 and 1.719 million tons respectively, which was lower than the average daily output in late July. The increase of 29,000 tons and 77,000 tons indicates that steel mills are rapidly resuming production as market prices rebound.
At present, the cost of steel mills continues to rise. The average price of imported iron ore in China was US$141.38/ton in July. As of August 23, the current mainstream price of Indian fines (63.5% grade) is US$157 (CIF), and the cost of steel mills in the second half of the year. The pressure is still large. Analysts in the industry believe that the falling price of steel prices will be affected by the bottom position of the mining price, and the rise and fall of steel prices will also develop the fluctuation cycle of “long-term declineâ€.
According to the monitoring data of the Nishimoto Shinkansen, the total inventory of construction steel in major cities in the current period was 7,737,500 tons, a decrease of 90,700 tons from last week and a decrease of 1.22% on a week-on-week basis. Although the current steel inventory of construction is still in the downward channel, other steel products such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled and plate are still maintaining their positions, especially the hot-rolled inventory has been rising for several consecutive weeks. The current supply pressure is still greater than the demand level. .
This round of steel prices began to rise with the stock market in early July. Under the guidance of futures and electronic trading, spot steel prices have also risen to this day. My steel network believes that market demand does not support the continued rise in steel prices, and steel prices continue to have insufficient upward momentum.
According to data from the Xiben Shinkansen trading platform, Shanghai's terminal purchases fell by 28.88% last week, which is the third consecutive week of terminal sales. The impact of early demand heavy volume overdrafts has begun to be reflected in the near future.
Steel price: rising for 5 weeks, exceeding 350 yuan, regaining upward pressure
With domestic steel prices rising for five consecutive weeks, steel prices have already faced adjustment pressure. On the 23rd, Jigang reduced the ex-factory price of rebar by 50 yuan/ton, and the wine steel also lowered the ex-factory price of rebar and wire by 50 yuan/ton.