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The over-saturated furniture industry bubble in Xiamen's home market is on the verge of bursting?
“The home plaza was on fire for a while, and then there was very little traffic. There was basically no business.†“I didn’t expect that in just one year, Xinjing’s home plaza would be closed. It’s a pity that such a good location.†Geographically, Xinjing Home Plaza really has the advantage. It is located in the core location of Xiamen's mature commercial districts such as the Lotus Business Circle, SM Business Circle and Jiangtou Business Circle, and has a three-dimensional transportation network. Even though it has the inherent advantages of geographical advantages, Xinjing Home has to leave the market, reflecting the fierce competition in the Xiamen market. However, this is only a glimpse of the home market. Before 2010, Xiamen's building materials and home consumption were mainly concentrated in the island's Alishan building materials market, Taiwan Street building materials market, Jijiajia world, Oriental home, B&Q and other stores. In 2010, Xiyingmen, Red Star Macalline and Ouyada opened in Xiamen. At the same time, Beijing Home Furnishings Jimei also settled in Xiamen. The Ludao home building materials market is welcoming a round of battle. The saying that the store “gets together†has appeared a few years ago, and forward-thinking insiders have long warned about this practice: over-exploitation will lead to disaster. For example, Zou Wenlong, the president of Jisheng Weibang, has repeatedly raised concerns about the current disorder of the furniture market. Of course, the furniture people who are accustomed to measuring the vitality of the company with growth data, especially the store is adhering to the concept of "fast fish to eat slow fish" and "big fish to eat small fish". Therefore, the disaster facing today is a mirror image of the current and future of the industry. As far as the Xiamen home market is concerned, can we explore the furniture market from six aspects now whether it has become ill? The Xiamen home market is also a microcosm of China's first- and second-tier cities, not a "phase." Reliable Demographic Data 2010 Xiamen City Population Census Main Data: According to the main data bulletin of Xiamen City's sixth national census in 2010, the population of Xiamen City at the end of 2010 was about 3.53 million, with a registered population of about 1.8 million, non-resident permanent population. There are about 1.73 million people, and the ratio of registered and non-resident permanent residents is 51:49. There are about 1.86 million people on the island and 1.67 million people outside the island. The island population accounts for 52.7%; (including 929,998 people in Siming District, 931,291 people in Huli District, 304,333 people in Xiang'an District, 496,129 people in Tong'an District, and 580,857 people in Jimei District. There are 288,739 people in Haishu District, including Siming District and Huli District on the island, and the other four districts on the island. Obviously, the island is the main city of Xiamen. The area statistics are too amazing. According to the incomplete statistics of the network data, the current Xiamen home area is more than 1.45 million square meters: the name area percentage notes Jimei home 500,000 square meters, the foreign star, the red star, the Meikailong, 198,000 square meters, the Xiyingmen furniture and building materials square, 128,000 square meters. Ouyada home 100,000 square meters foreign name home international building materials center 120,000 square meters local Jijia home world 100,000 square meters local Jimei home 500,000 square meters (500,000 square meters Jimei (Xiamen) home Expo Park set a set of Jimei home store The body area record will be built into the first MALL in Haixi, following the international management mode of “one-stop†pan-home shopping center.) Red Star Macalline 198,000 square meters, Xiyingmen Furniture Building Plaza 128,000 square meters Rice, Ouyada home 100,000 square meters, Mingjia International Building Materials Center 12 square meters, Jijiajia World 10 square meters, the above six stores area is more than 1.1 million square meters, plus Oriental Home, Xinjing Home (already Close), Mingdu Furniture Square, Zhuang's Home, Times Mercure, Shangshuai Home, Yabide Furniture Plaza, Qijia Home, Jia Nian Minghua, etc. The area has more than 350,000 square meters, not including the island "simple house" a few thousand square meters to 20,000 square meters of small stores such as. The per capita number of people is currently calculated on the island's registered population. At present, the per capita home shopping area in Xiamen has exceeded 0.8 square meters per person. If 4 people are counted as one family unit, Xiamen has a household registration population of 450,000 households, and the family has a home store operating area of ​​more than 3.2 square meters per household. According to the "28 Law" analysis, only 20% of the 450,000 households will purchase, that is, 90,000 families. Then the actual purchase family has a home store operating area of ​​more than 16 square meters per month, which is 192 square meters per year. If the non-resident population participates in the statistics, with a ratio of 51:49, (still with the 28th rule), the actual purchase of households has a household store area of ​​8 square meters per month, and the annual statistics are 96 square meters. Of course, don't forget that the household registration population does not mean that it must be in Xiamen. That is to say, there is still water in such statistics. That is, the actual purchase of households has only a lot of home stores, not less. The more and more scared rents, the average basic rent for home furnishing stores in Xiamen is about 100 yuan / square meter / month (including 20% ​​- 30% of the pool area). The monthly rent paid by the dealer is 100 yuan × 1.45 million square meters = 1.45 billion yuan, and the annual rent is 1.74 billion yuan. That is to say, the Xiamen seller must pay the rent of 145 million yuan per month to the store, which is 4.8 million yuan per day. This account is paid by the actual purchase of the family, which means that the actual purchase of the family is monthly. With a rent of 1,600 yuan, the total amount is 19,200 yuan a year. Can you protect yourself? At present, the retail profit of the home furnishing industry has dropped sharply compared with a few years ago. According to the ratio between single gross profit sales and rent, it is about 3:1. What is the concept that the Xiamen home furnishing industry needs to generate 145 million × 3 per month? = 435 million yuan, will generate 5.22 billion sales per year to allow all dealers to protect the capital. In order to maintain such a capital preservation point, (in terms of household registration statistics), Xiamen citizens must spend 966 yuan per month on furniture, and the annual consumption is 11,600 yuan. According to the analysis of the 28th rule, the actual purchase of furniture for the family is 4,840 yuan per month, and the annual consumption is 58080 yuan. If the non-resident population participates in the statistics, it is still based on the 28th rule, that is, the actual monthly purchase of the family is 2,420 yuan, and the annual consumption is 29,040 yuan. (Even if it is not based on the 28th rule, Xiamen's per capita furniture consumption is about 148 yuan. In 2009, the per capita consumption of Chinese furniture was about 50 yuan, and the consumption in two years increased by nearly 200%. This shows that the bubble is serious.) Achieving sales of 5.22 billion yuan, because the store rent accounted for 30% of the cost is the critical point of the seller's profit and loss, so it can not keep the dealer's daily operating expenses, the early investment recovery is even more distant. Investment risk, winning geometry? At present, the cost of opening furniture in the furniture industry remains high. According to Xiamen sales, the current renovation fee per square meter is about 800 yuan. If the area is 300 square meters, only the renovation fee will be 240,000 yuan, 300 square meters. , plate furniture should be 6-8 million samples, solid wood furniture 10-15 million samples (high-end solid wood furniture is more), plus a small inventory, samples, jewelry and products that need inventory, at least 10 More than 10,000 yuan. If it is a 800-1000 square meter store, it will cost a million yuan, and the decoration and accessories will consume the investment cost. Therefore, Yang Yazhong, president of the China Furniture Sellers Association, said at a forum that many small and medium-sized sellers have gotten into it and will not come out. Because hundreds of thousands of dollars have been invested, even if they are losing money every month, as long as they can afford to lose, they will still support. Because except for the products, the investment costs are not reusable. If you don't do it, it means that hundreds of thousands of yuan have been lost. Wu Haiming, the executive director of the China Furniture Sellers Association in Shanghai, said that he spent a year on the cost of renovations, products and losses in a store in Hangzhou, more than one million yuan. More than one million yuan have been invested, and it is not certain that they will not withdraw. “It’s not a general hardship, but it’s particularly difficult. 80% of the seller’s group is losing money.†Zeng Zhenyu, the rotating president of the China Furniture Sellers Association, told Zhengzhou about his market situation. However, the upstream real estate is still in a deep downturn, the store has benefited others, and it has become more and more serious. There is no meaning of "repentance" at all. Everything seems to imply to the furniture manufacturers: the market is not the worst, only worse. "Conservative estimates, one-third of the sellers will leave or fall this year and next." "I can't hold a lot of people in the past two years," I will stick to the flat shop. If I lose money, I will not hesitate to shut down. "If we can sit together and talk about furniture in five years, it is the greatest relief and my greatest blessing!" Such remarks have been repeatedly mentioned. Is it a fundamental confusion or a deep depression? The group that had previously created the legendary furniture industry had to face such problems today. Is it "who wants to destroy the sky, must first make it crazy?" All of the above data and the voice of the seller are together to prove that the store is over-supplied and the rent is too high. It can be asserted that the reshuffle of the Xiamen home market will begin and will intensify. In fact, cities like Xiamen are everywhere in the country. Xiamen is not a “caseâ€, but a microcosm of Chinese furniture.