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Overcapacity in traditional industries
According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, the GDP growth rate in 2013 was 7.7%. In the first quarter of this year, it was 7.4%, 7.5% in the second quarter, and fell to 7.3% in the third quarter.
As for the decline in growth rate, Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the first is the overcapacity of traditional industries accumulated over the years, and the second is that the cumulative effect of continuous adjustment of real estate has increased this year. These two factors will affect the production, consumption and investment of related companies in the short run.
Lian Ping, a senior economist at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, and Tang Jianwei, a senior macro analyst, believe that the downward pressure on the economy in the third quarter was mainly due to the weak investment growth, and the main reason for the decline in investment growth was the rapid decline in real estate investment.
From January to September, real estate development investment grew by 12.5% ​​year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.6 percentage points from the first half of the year. For real estate, Sheng Laiyun said that the trend of real estate differentiation adjustment this year is still continuing. The adjustment of third- and fourth-tier cities is much larger. Some local governments have liberalized some measures to restrict purchases after entering the third quarter. The central bank made some new regulations on the policy of restricting loans on September 30, following the real estate market. The trend will continue to be observed.
Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closed down. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2,720.66 points, down 0.72%; the Shenzhen Component Index was 8106.92 points, down 1.19%. A number of brokerage analysts said that the third quarter GDP growth rate announced yesterday was 7.3%, a new low since the first quarter of 2009, triggering market concerns about further economic downturn.
It is expected that the economy will pick up slightly in the fourth quarter.
For the macroeconomic situation in the fourth quarter and this year, Sheng Laiyun said that the economy is likely to develop steadily and rapidly in the fourth quarter and in the next period.
The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center also said in the report that although the economic growth rate has continued to slow down, the economy still shows some positive phenomena, including a good export situation, stable consumption growth, a rise in the tertiary industry, and employment. The ability to enhance is equal. Therefore, it is expected that the economic environment in the fourth quarter may be slightly better than the third quarter, the economic growth rate may stabilize slightly to 7.4%, and the annual GDP growth may still maintain a reasonable range of around 7.4%.
China National Capital Corporation said in its report yesterday that the policy will remain largely unchanged. The slowdown in investment still brings downward pressure on economic growth. The monetary policy has a lot of room for relaxation, including continuing to reduce interest rates in the interbank market and continuing to inject liquidity into the interbank market. CICC expects that the growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter of this year will rebound from the third quarter, and the growth rate will be close to the third quarter. The growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter will be 7.2% year-on-year, and 7.3% for the whole year.
Guan Qingyou, executive director of the Minsheng Securities Research Institute, also believes that the economy will pick up slightly in the fourth quarter, and the downward pressure on the economy will temporarily ease. Real estate sales supported by policies such as non-repayable housing seem to be showing signs of recovery. At the same time, Guan Qingyou also mentioned that the most deteriorating moment of the economy is far from over. In the past, the heavy surplus of heavy industry capacity retained by the real estate boom will restrict the Chinese economy for a long time. Only after waiting for the production capacity to gradually clear out and the risks to be exposed, the economy is likely to usher in a long-term prosperity.
Third quarter GDP growth rate hit a new 5-year low
Abstract The National Bureau of Statistics released macroeconomic data for the first three quarters of this year on October 21. In the first three quarters, the GDP was 4,190.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Looking at the quarter, the first quarter increased by 7.4%, the second quarter increased by 7.5%, and the third quarter growth rate fell...
The National Bureau of Statistics released macroeconomic data for the first three quarters of this year on October 21. In the first three quarters, the GDP was 4,190.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. In the quarter, the first quarter increased by 7.4% year-on-year, the second quarter increased by 7.5%, and the third quarter growth rate fell to 7.3%, the lowest since the first quarter of 2009. Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the slowdown in growth was mainly due to the fact that the economic restructuring has exceeded the expectations since the third quarter.