Coal prices or rising cement costs will rise in November

With the approach of the heating period in winter and the increase in coal consumption, domestic coal prices continue to hit historical highs, but international coal prices have continued to decline. International and domestic prices are nearly 100 yuan per ton/ton. Many coastal power plants are importing coal, which may make domestic price rises more restrained. However, in the interview, experts comprehensively analyzed that coal prices may still slightly increase in November.

The reporter's review of the Qinhuangdao Coal Information Port shows that the ex-factory price of coking coal and anthracite in some areas has started to rise since the end of September, and that coal prices have already risen.

The latest round of Bohai steam coal price index released on October 26th refreshed the highest price since the index was released. The current average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal was 853 yuan per ton, up by 6 yuan from the previous week* **/ton, an increase of 0.71%. Among them, Qinhuangdao coal price, which is known as the barometer of China's coal market, continues to rise. Among them, thermal coal prices of 5,500 kcal and 5,800 kcal have risen by RMB 5/ton from the previous period, which is RMB 850 to RMB 860. ~910 yuan***/ton, the remaining coal prices remain unchanged.

Unlike the continuous rise in domestic coal prices, coal prices in the international market have continued to decline. As of the week of October 28, the thermal coal price index of Newcastle Port in Australia was US$117.89 per ton, which was a seven-week decline in thermal coal prices in the Port for the seventh consecutive week, a decrease of US$6.43, a decrease of 5.18%; South Africa’s Richard Port Thermal Coal The price index reached US$108.70 per ton, which was the fourth consecutive week of decline, with an overall decrease of US$10.84 in seven weeks, a significant drop.

In November, the amount of thermal power generation and coal consumption for power generation will both rise, and the power plant may appropriately increase the amount of coal imported to keep coal inventory at a relatively safe level.

With the widening domestic and foreign price differences, some power plants have greatly increased their enthusiasm for purchasing thermal coal from overseas in order to reduce losses. Calculated at the current exchange rate, Australian thermal coal prices will be around 100 yuan less per ton than domestic prices without taking into account fees such as transportation and miscellaneous fees.

An analyst from Qinhuangdao Port told reporters that from an international point of view, the prospects for the international economic situation are unclear. Although the debt crisis in Europe has not yet been resolved, the international commodity prices and international oil prices will continue to fluctuate. The international coal price will not change in the short term. It may rise sharply and the amount of imported coal is not expected to decrease significantly.

However, as the market's growing concern over the economic slowdown at home and abroad continues to intensify, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Some coal mining companies have significantly reduced their enthusiasm for purchasing, and have obviously suppressed the increase in coal prices. At the same time, bad weather such as strong winds and fog may be visited more frequently during the autumn and winter seasons, which will also affect the normal shipping of coal in the port to some extent. Therefore, overall, the domestic coal market is expected to rise slightly in November.