Analysis of Operation of China's Steel Industry in 2012

1. Domestic demand support is weak From the perspective of domestic demand, investment growth may continue to slow in the first half of 2012. On the one hand, real estate regulation will continue to be maintained, and will not be relaxed in the short term. The number of affordable housing starts will be significantly lower than that of the previous year, and ** platform debt will enter the debt-repayment period. The weakening of local government’s ability will restrict the growth of investment; On the other hand, in the short-term, China's manufacturing PMI index also showed a clear downward trend, and industrial production is expected to slow down. Therefore, the domestic demand for the steel industry in the first half of 2012 will be less than that in 2011, and industry production will moderately slow.

2. Foreign demand continues to remain sluggish From the perspective of external demand, the world economic growth prospects in the first half of 2012 are not good. The International Monetary Organization and the World Bank have recently lowered the growth forecasts for the world economy, major developed country economies and emerging economies. . First of all, although the US’s employment conditions have recently improved and consumer confidence has recovered, it is still difficult to re-enter a new round of growth cycle. The downturn in the real estate market has not changed significantly. Second, Europe is affected by the debt crisis. The manufacturing industry continues to shrink. The manufacturing PMI index of major countries continues to operate below the dividing line of the economy. The weak pattern in the short term is difficult to change. Finally, Brazil, India, and Russia are affected by the tightening policy. The recent growth rate has slowed markedly, showing signs of capital outflows. obvious. Therefore, the outlook for China's steel exports in the first half of next year remains bleak.

3, iron ore prices are conducive to ease the pressure on the industry operations From the near term, spot prices of iron ore fell sharply, China's tightening of real estate and high-speed rail control measures, iron ore market is short-term oversupply, is conducive to iron ore The further decline in prices.

In the medium term, the international iron ore giants will adopt measures to reduce supply to cope with excessive price declines. Once the domestic and international economic growth momentum stabilizes, the possibility of soaring iron ore prices still exists. Therefore, the Secretary-General of the International Model Association Luo Baihui believes that accelerating global resource allocation and promoting the merger and reorganization of the domestic steel industry will remain an important task for the long-term sustainable development of the steel industry.