China's energy into the reform on the eve of oil shortage is difficult to solve

Although the industry's long-awaited energy plan for the 12th Five-Year Plan failed to come out in 2011, the basic ideas for energy development in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” have already taken shape, and all development goals have basically surfaced. "Energy development set the tone. In particular, the development of traditional energy sources such as coal, electricity, oil, and natural gas, after many years of tangling, has witnessed an upsurge of industrial change that has come to an end. 2012 China's energy industry will go where we will wait and see.

On January 10, the National Energy Economic Work Conference was informed that China’s total energy consumption will be controlled at about 4.1 billion tons of standard coal in 2015. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, we will gradually establish a mechanism to effectively and reasonably control the total amount of energy. Research will be conducted on the introduction of fossil energy excise duties and the ad valorem of crude oil, natural gas and coal resources will be assessed.

According to reports, by 2015, China's total energy consumption target will be controlled at around 4.1 billion tons of standard coal. From the perspective of energy composition, coal accounts for 70% of China's total energy consumption, followed by oil and natural gas. It can be seen that to achieve the target of 4.1 billion tons of energy consumption, the control of fossil energy consumption is a major issue. The Opinions proposed that in the future research will be conducted on the levy of fossil energy excise duties, the realization of natural gas and coal resource tax ad valorem, the study and formulation of differential resource taxation policies linked to recovery rates, and the improvement of special energy income systems such as oil.

The so-called force-reversing mechanism is to strictly limit the total energy consumption of various local governments, and then to force local governments to adjust the industrial structure, change the mode of economic growth based on energy consumption, and then start from various aspects to curb local energy consumption. The rise.

Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that levying fossil fuel energy consumption tax will push up energy prices, and that it will be difficult to collect taxes. If resource taxes are already imposed, fossil energy excise tax will not be introduced soon. The "V" period is more likely to be an individual pilot. To control the total energy consumption mechanism, it is necessary to have a relatively long-term process to exert its inflexible role, and it is difficult to bear fruit in the short term.

Comment: Once implemented, the total energy consumption control plan means that on the basis of the variable control of energy consumption per unit of GDP, the total amount of energy consumption will be increased as a quantitative control index. This will effectively restrain local governments from excessively pursuing GDP while ignoring energy consumption, improving the quality of economic development everywhere, and accelerating the transformation of China's economic growth pattern.

In order to realize the goal of energy conservation and environmental protection, the country’s gradual control of the total consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas in the future will be the trend of the times, and regulation through taxation policies will be one of the important means. Fossil energy consumption tax regulates energy consumption through prices, which can affect users' consumption habits and prevent excessive waste.

Oil shortage problem is difficult to solve

In recent years, the contradiction between the supply and demand of domestic refined oil has always been sharp, and the shortage of diesel oil will occur during the peak demand season.

From January 1, 2012, China's import and export tariffs will be partially adjusted. In order to actively expand imports and meet domestic economic and social development and consumer demand, in 2012 China will implement a lower tentative tariff rate for imports of more than 730 commodities, with an average tax rate of 4.4%, which is more than 50% lower than the MFN tariff rate. These products include refined oil and so on.

Because China has a high degree of energy dependence and consumes a lot of oil each year, diesel shortages have occurred throughout the country. The reduction of import tariffs is intended to amplify the volume of refined oil imports in 2012 and reduce the chance of recurring diesel shortages next year.

The introduction of this policy, to a large extent, also hopes that the two major oil companies can increase the import of refined oil and ensure the supply of domestic refined oil.

Comments: Cut tariffs on refined oil imports, there is no doubt that the import volume can be increased, and to some extent ease the tension of oil supply. However, there are still many questions about whether the oil shortage will stop there.

As early as October of this year when there was a wide range of oil supply tensions, industry insiders said that it was not really oil shortage, but that the two oil companies were unwilling to give oil to private companies because they were dissatisfied with the oil price cuts at the time.

As the "two giants" firmly grasp the right to import crude oil and refined oil, making them the sole excuse of this tariff reduction and the biggest beneficiaries. In the face of repeated domestic oil supply tensions, the "two giants" have increasingly enlarged their bargaining power in the manipulation of the market.

Therefore, if the refined oil pricing mechanism is not straightened out and does not relax the import monopoly of petroleum and refined oil, all companies are allowed to import petroleum and refined oil. The oil shortage may not end here.

International oil prices are still high and volatile

EU diplomats revealed on January 4 that EU countries have reached a preliminary agreement on banning Iranian oil from entering the EU, and it has not yet been decided when the ban will be implemented. According to the EU foreign ministers’ meeting in December last year, the EU will hold a summit on January 30th, when it is likely to introduce a formal oil embargo on Iraq.

The news that the EU intends to introduce an embargo order has touched the nerves of international oil prices. Brent crude oil prices have risen more than 1 percentage point, and oil prices have soared to more than 113 US dollars. In the plate, oil prices hit a new high for the past seven weeks.

According to Zhongyu information statistics, international crude oil surged nearly 30 US dollars/barrel under Libya’s turbulence from February to April 2011, while Libya’s crude oil supply only accounts for 0.5% of global supply, but Iran’s crude oil supply accounts for More than 4% of global supply is equivalent to one-third of China's demand. If the Iranian problem deteriorates, it will surely push up oil prices.

Zhongyu oil analyst Shen Tao said that in 2012 international oil prices will at least push up to 150 US dollars / barrel above.

At present, China's refined oil price adjustment mechanism, when the international market crude oil (Brent, Dubai, Xinta) prices for 22 consecutive days of moving average price changes exceed 4%, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices can be adjusted accordingly. Under the general trend of rising international crude oil prices, the price of refined oil products in China is gradually rising or unavoidable.

Comments: In 2011, the overall crude oil price was in a wide range of shocks. At present, the domestic refined oil price trend basically keeps in line with the international oil price. In 2012, due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, the European debt crisis and other factors, it is expected that international crude oil will maintain a higher trend.

Although this year China's refined oil price mechanism is expected to be adjusted, but before the adjustment, the level of international oil prices will still directly affect the level of China's refined oil prices.

Pricing reforms or boosting gas prices

The National Development and Reform Commission decided to launch pilot reforms of natural gas price formation mechanisms in Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region starting from December 26. The industry believes that this marks the brewing of the reform of the formation mechanism of natural gas prices that has been brewing for a long time. The pricing mechanism of natural gas has begun to become market-oriented.

For a long time, the problem of inverting the prices of domestic and imported natural gas in our country has been severe, and price reform has long been a voice.

According to Jiang Jiemin, chairman of CNPC, at present, CNPC’s natural gas loss is more than RMB 1 per cubic meter, and it is expected that the loss of CNPC's oil and gas business will exceed RMB 20 billion this year.

Since 2005, China has adjusted its domestic onshore natural gas factory benchmark prices three times. This time, Guangdong and Guangxi were chosen as pilots. The NDRC said that the reason is that these two places are emerging natural gas markets. At present, there is no domestic supply of onshore pipeline natural gas, and gas sources are closer to the international market.

In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that the ultimate goal of China's natural gas price reform is to liberalize the ex-factory price of natural gas, which is formed by market competition. The government only manages natural gas pipeline transportation prices that are naturally monopolized.

Some analysts said that in the short term, the natural gas prices in the pilot areas will not increase significantly, but with the gradual expansion of the scope of natural gas reform and the gradual increase of imported natural gas, natural gas prices will continue to rise.

Comments: Natural gas is a scarce resource in China, and the supply and demand are also in short supply. The price reform of natural gas can solve resource allocation problems more reasonably and effectively, and ensure the balance between supply and demand of natural gas.

The highlight of this price reform is the change in the pricing method of natural gas, which was changed from the original “cost-plus” method to the “market-based net-return” method. This will transform cost-to-market competition into a more flexible way of highlighting the price of natural gas. The status quo in the market.

Price reform is only a part of the reform of the natural gas market, and it is even the core part. However, the fundamental reform of the natural gas market is not just a one-sided solution to price reform. The current small-scale price reform is a price reform carried out without the introduction of natural gas marketization reforms. It is still a transitional reform.

"Stop price order" coal price rose slightly steadily

Throughout 2011, from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, coal prices were too high. In the end, what is the price of coal?

Once, Zhou Lianqing, the director of Huadian International, told reporters that 11 years ago, that is, in 2000, the average price of coal was 227 yuan per ton. By the end of 2010, it had reached 799 yuan. By 2011, the average price of thermal coal has exceeded 850 yuan. Ton.

Several times the price of coal has risen. This has brought about a huge loss in the downstream thermal power industry. The current situation of thermal power companies generating power and losses is irreconcilable to the NDRC.

As a result, at the end of 2011, the NDRC put forward guidance on coal prices. The 2012 annual key contract coal prices could be raised by up to 5%, including 5500 kcal thermal coal in the northern ports including Qinhuangdao Port. The price cannot be higher than 800 yuan/ton.

Due to policies or market factors, in short, after the Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal prices fell for 8 consecutive weeks, last week was the first week of 2012 has fallen to the NDRC limit of 800 yuan / ton, and continued to decline this week trend.

As for the trend of coal prices in 2012, among the many coal experts interviewed by the reporters, they all believe that the trend of coal prices will remain unchanged, but the price increase rate will tend to slow down compared with 2011. Zhang Yulin, research director of China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., said that because the current electricity market has not yet achieved full marketization, government intervention is necessary.

Comments: Coal as a non-renewable resource, the price increase is positive. However, for a country, the impact of the change in coal prices will not be overstated. It is not an exaggeration. Otherwise, the NDRC will not issue a “limit order”.

However, coal has already become market-oriented. The state's administrative intervention is fashionable and long-lasting. It is ultimately market supply and demand that play a leading role in coal prices.

Thermal power is expected to turn deficits in 2012

In 2011, the regulatory authority made adjustments to the on-grid tariff for different regions three times. The average price increase for the last three cents was very strong, which gave thermal power companies hope for turning losses.

The reason for the multiple price hikes is simply because the electric power industry, once known as the “electric tiger,” has lost its prestige in recent years, especially in 2011, and has been accompanied by a series of losses. The number.

Although the production data of the five major power groups in 2011 have not yet been seen, the data from the first half of the year are sufficient to control the situation. According to the CEC National Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis Report, Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian, and China Power Investment Corp.’s five major power generation groups recorded a loss of 15.38 billion yuan in thermal power production in the first half of 2011, a year-on-year increase of 9.52 billion yuan.

Under heavy losses, coal prices continued to rise slowly due to the slow rise in electricity prices. Ten years ago, the average price of one thousand kilowatt-hour electricity was 335 yuan, and it only rose to 410 yuan after ten years.

The apparently unequal gains in the upstream and downstream changes are the most intuitive performance of the market coal and planned electricity, and the loss of thermal power is inevitable. And the system is not able to change in the short term, and the NDRC’s timely punching becomes necessary. In the first two quarters of the fine adjustment price, the majority of thermal power companies’ enthusiasm for generating electricity has not been mobilized. After the third price adjustment, several power plants have expressed that if the coal price does not continue to rise, the price of the on-grid price increase can cause the company to turn losses. For profit.

Comments: Under the heavy burden of high coal prices and high financial costs, thermal power companies with thermal power generation as the main business prefer to shut down the shutdown group in 2011 and are reluctant to generate electricity. Visible thermal power industry losses have been very serious.

However, the solution to the institutional contradictions will not be realized by half past one half.

Although the administrative intervention can not solve the problem, it can at least solve the urgent problem, so that thermal power companies can step out of the cycle of loss.

Break through the schedule for the reform of the electricity price for coal and cattle at the top

According to the Central Economic Work Conference, it is necessary to gradually rationalize the relationship between coal and electricity prices. Industry experts pointed out that although they have not seen any substantial progress, the negative impact of the coal market plan has reached the point where it must be resolved. In 2012, it is expected to become the year of ice-breaking of top coal cows.

In recent years, the state has always stayed in the administrative scope for the reform of electricity prices, and most of the reforms will increase electricity prices, mainly through the NDRC's fine-tuning of electricity prices at different times to resolve emerging issues. The biggest price adjustment is still in 2011.

Starting from April 2011, the NDRC successively raised the on-grid tariffs in different provinces, including increasing the average price of commercial and agricultural electricity in the 15 provinces and cities by 1.67 cents per kilowatt-hour from June 1.

However, in 2011, when coal-fired bulls lasted for almost a year, many adjustments were still made in a planned economy and administrative methods were used to solve the problem. The current status of market coal and planned electricity has not changed.

The above experts pointed out that the central economic conference at the beginning of this year clearly showed signs of changing the existing coal-fired power system. The reform of the coal power price system will surely proceed, but it is only a matter of time. Obviously, the government has put this issue on the agenda, and 2012 will also be a crucial year to resolve this issue.

Just as the Development and Reform Commission raised the price of electricity for the third time in 2011, another issue was also raised for the first time. That is, residents have to implement the ladder price issue. The previous tariff adjustment did not make any changes to the residents' electricity prices. This year is also the first year of the residents' ladder price trial.

Comments: The emergency solution of the regulatory authority alone cannot completely solve the problem of coal-fired bulls. The government must have realized this point. This rationalized the coal-electricity relationship, and the key to electricity price reform is still the market coal and planned electricity. An institutional reform.

Buying mineral heat at home and abroad is still hot

Referring to many domestic energy companies, especially coal, petroleum, and electricity, etc., the active purchase of minerals at home and abroad can become a common concern in 2011. An industry expert who asked not to be named told reporters that for the energy companies in the next ten years, it can be said that investment is the best way to invest. In 2012, it will still be the main direction for domestic energy companies to invest.

Regardless of quantity or amount, M&A completed by domestic and foreign energy and mineral industries in 2011 is far ahead of other industries. According to statistics of Zero2IPO Research Center, the number of M&A transactions completed by the energy and minerals industry in 2011 was 153, accounting for 13.2% of the total M&A transactions. The amount of M&A transactions reached US$ 21.983 billion, accounting for 32.8% of the total M&A transactions.

It is worth mentioning that various companies are keen on domestic and foreign coal mines. With the rise of coal prices in the upper reaches and the loss of downstream thermal power, a phenomenon that occurred in 2011 was that thermal power companies actively purchased minerals and actively expanded to the upstream, but most of them were still concentrated on the acquisition of domestic coal resources. The five major power groups all participate in them, among which Huadian International has coal mine assets that it owns or controls in Inner Mongolia and other provinces and cities.

For coal companies, some of the focus is on foreign coal resources.

In the very last few days of 2012, Yanzhou Coal completed the largest coal resources M&A project in Australia, and created a new overseas acquisition of mineral resources through the exchange of shares and cash.

However, buying mines has brought high returns to these energy companies, and it has correspondingly high risks. Cases of failure are also numerous. Minmetals' $6.5 billion acquisition of overseas copper abortions is one of them.

Comments: Most mineral resources are non-renewable resources. While the global mineral resources are declining, buying minerals is undoubtedly a relatively high rate of investment. How to purchase more minerals abroad at the right price and in the right way is a question that domestic energy companies need to consider.

Take Yanzhou Coal as an example, why overseas mineral acquisitions are able to flow smoothly, because the exploration road in Australia in the past 10 years has given it a good understanding of the local environment. Knowing to know the other way, so that companies can avoid more cost loss caused by abortion.

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What is the direction of energy change?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released the 2011 edition of the World Energy Outlook report. The report warns that there are few signs that the changes that are desperately needed for global energy trends are ongoing. If we do not change our direction in time, we will be buried on the way forward.

The report proposes that the door leading to warming control within 2°C is closing, and the delay action is a wrong economic account: Before 2020, less investment of $1 in the power industry will result in an additional investment of $4.3 after 2020. Compensate for increased emissions.

The pace of nuclear energy development will not slow down

Although the nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has cast a shadow over the future of nuclear power, the IEA predicts that the global nuclear power capacity will increase by 70% from 2011 to 2035, a slight decline from the 2010 forecast, because most of them have nuclear power projects. The state has reaffirmed that it will strengthen the supervision of the safety of nuclear power, but it will not slow down the pace of nuclear power development.

According to IEA, low-nuclear power will create opportunities for renewable energy in the future, but it will also stimulate demand for fossil fuels. Ultimately, it will cause additional upward pressure on energy prices, causing additional concerns about energy security, making climate change more difficult and more difficult. expensive. For those countries that have limited local energy resources and have long relied heavily on nuclear power, the consequences are particularly serious. This will also become more challenging for emerging economies to meet their rapidly growing power needs.

The end of the era of cheap oil

The IEA pointed out that although the short-term pressure in the crude oil market is being eased in the context of decelerating economic growth and the return of Libya's oil industry to the market, by 2035, the international average oil price will remain at a level close to $120/barrel. The dependence of the oil market on a small number of oil-producing countries will increase. From 2011 to 2035, more than 90% of the global new oil demand will be met by the Middle East and North Africa. If the investment in the Middle East and North Africa is one-third lower than the $100 billion needed each year, consumers may face an oil price of $150/barrel in the near future.

The IEA expects that global oil demand will increase from 87 million barrels per day in 2010 to 99,000 barrels per day in 2035, and net growth will come from transportation needs of emerging economies.

Coal consumption will surpass oil

The IEA pointed out that in the past 10 years, coal has met almost half of the world's new energy demand, and by 2035 coal demand will increase by another 65% and surpass oil. The more efficient coal-fired power plants and the widespread use of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology will be beneficial to the long-term development of coal, but CCS technology still faces management, policy and technical barriers.

The IEA also predicts that India’s coal consumption will double, replacing the United States as the world’s second-largest coal consumer and becoming the world’s largest coal importer after 2020.

Natural Gas Development Enters a Golden Age

The share of natural gas in the energy structure will grow rapidly and even usher in the golden age of development. Russia will become the largest beneficiary country. The IEA stated that the biggest challenge facing Russia is the increase in development costs of oil and gas fields and the improvement of energy efficiency. Russia will continue to maintain its position as an important supplier to the European natural gas market, but its export of fossil fuels has begun to shift to China and the Asia Pacific region. If Russia increases energy efficiency to the same level as that of OECD countries, its primary energy consumption will be reduced by nearly one-third, saving 180 billion cubic meters of natural gas, which is close to its 2010 net exports.

The share of renewable energy will increase

According to the IEA, according to the hypothetical main scenario, global energy demand will increase by 1/3 between 2010 and 2035, of which 90% will come from non-OECD member countries.

The share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption will fall from about 81% today to 75% in 2030, and the share of renewable energy will increase from the current 13% to 18% in 2030.

The IEA predicts that supported by the annual renewable energy subsidies, the proportion of non-hydro renewable energy in power generation will increase from 3% in 2009 to 15% in 2035, and subsidies will increase by almost 5 times to 180 billion US dollars. China and the European Union will account for nearly half of the growth.

Although the cost of subsidies per unit of output is expected to decline, most renewable energy sources need continuous support during the forecast period. Although subsidies support is expensive, it is expected to play a profound role in energy security and environmental protection.

To accommodate more renewable energy power, additional investment in transmission networks is required, which accounts for 10% of total transmission investment, and in the EU, this figure is 25%.