Petrochemical product prices still have room to rise

In March, under the influence of the Japanese earthquake and triggered a nuclear power crisis and tension in the Middle East, the East China Chemical Market rose or fell. Compared with February, liquefied gas rose 8%, carbon 5 rose 10.8%, butadiene rose 15%, carbon ten rose 12.5%, ethylene oxide rose 5.5%, acrylonitrile rose 6%, polyvinyl alcohol rose 5% , Vinyl acetate rose 14%, low-density polyethylene rose 1.7%, and acrylic fiber rose 3.8%; only a small amount of ethylene glycol and terephthalic acid products fell, falling 1.7% and 0.25%.

In April, there are still some uncertainties affecting the domestic petrochemical market, and the impact of the surrounding petrochemical market will be even greater. Although Japan has now moved from disaster relief to post-disaster reconstruction, the nuclear crisis caused by the earthquake has still not been effectively controlled. The radioactive pollution caused by nuclear leakage is gradually spreading and it is difficult to eliminate in the short term. In addition, the situation in the Middle East is still very tense, and the changes are complicated and confusing. As a result, oil production and exports are blocked, and international oil prices have risen sharply. This will not only bring greater input inflationary pressure to China, but will also exert pressure on China's economy and refinery manufacturers, and it will also seriously impede the recovery of European and American economies.

In February this year, China's import and export have already experienced a deficit, and it is estimated that a similar deficit will occur in March. High oil prices will aggravate this trend. However, the role of macroeconomic control policies is gradually emerging. China's economic growth rate is gradually slowing down and the overall operation will be relatively stable. This will increase the ability to cope with uncertainties overseas.

Despite the recent large differences in prices of petrochemical products, some products with large gains in the early stage, such as butadiene, ethylene oxide, and liquefied gas, may experience slight corrections in the case of larger profits. However, with crude oil prices at a high level, lower producers’ production costs have increased, domestic cracker installations have increased overhaul, and market supply has decreased. In particular, the sales of most products enter the peak season, which will form a certain support for the market. If there is no special situation, the price of most products in April still has room to rise, especially the price trend of fine chemical products can be worthy of attention.