Cement demand is still not optimistic

Yesterday, the cement industry stocks fell across the board. Market researchers pointed out that as the decline in both real estate and infrastructure investment growth rates is difficult to reverse in the short term, cement demand is not optimistic. Investors should wait patiently for the cement industry to pick up market demand for further intervention.

Recently, with the reduction of deposit reserve ratio, it has triggered speculation that the market has loosened tight monetary policy. However, due to the lagging effect of macroeconomic control effects, the decline in both real estate and infrastructure investment in China will be difficult to reverse in the short term. Therefore, the demand for cement plates remains Not optimistic. At the same time, although the profitability of the cement industry hit a record high in the first half of 2011, it also led to an increase in profitability in the first half of 2012. In addition, as the market expects that the price of cement will be lower than this year at the beginning of 2012, coupled with a pessimistic outlook for demand, it cannot be hoped that the cement industry will achieve “amount premium”.

Wanlian Securities Research pointed out that to grasp the trend of the cement industry must pay close attention to demand, the country is limiting the cement production capacity, is expected to net increase in cement clinker production capacity of less than 60 million tons next year. Due to the limited increase in supply, as long as the cement industry's demand growth rate remains at around 4%, a positive new supply and demand margin can be realized, which will provide sustainable support for the cement industry's upward trend.

In view of this, the investment ideas can be grasped from the following three aspects: First, the companies in the region where the cement industry is expected to continue its boom; Second, companies that participate in the integration of the southwest and northwest markets, and the market share will increase further; Third, the demand is affected. Macro-control policies have a smaller impact on companies.