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Reuters commentary (June 17)
The LME market, which has a record high of US$3,400, is supported by the fund’s buying interest. The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price rose to a record high on Friday. Analysts and traders said that the supply of tightening worries and renewed interest in investment funds have driven copper prices up. At the end of London trading hours, copper prices surged to a record high of US$3,400 per ton, which was a US$12 increase from the closing price of the on-exchange trade. After copper rose to this level, it is expected to continue to challenge 3,500. A trader said, "All the factors are currently favorable to copper prices - short-term supply is extremely tight, strong demand and the weak dollar, together led to more buying interest, and thus continue to push up the price set a record high." Bache Financial analyst McMillan Said, "The situation of supply shortage is beyond the imagination of many people - no one dares to take the liberty." LME three-month copper intra-day trade closed at $ 3,388 per ton, up 1.5% from Thursday's close of 3,317. McMillan said, "This It was the result of the combination of CTA buying and short covering. The copper price rally also surprised many people. I'm not sure how the market outlook will be, but it may continue to rise to 3,500." **Short-term supply shortages** The decline in copper stocks and supply worries, coupled with exchange rate factors and strong Chinese demand, have all contributed to the current rally. Short-term supply constraints have overwhelmed the long-term supply surplus, prompting the copper market to regain strong buying. Analysts said that the shortage of copper supply has been maintained for more than two years, but there are already signs of excess supply, and as more copper is mined, supply in the second half may increase. However, the LME Friday Library The decrease of 2,150 tons to 36,150 was the lower point in 31 years. This supported the spot/three-month inverse price difference to rise to an eight-and-a-half year high of 267 US dollars. However, ABN AMRO analyst Moore said there are copper stocks elsewhere. Although LME The inventory between the United States and the China Exchange is only about 80,000 tons, but copper produced by producers and consumers is about 10 times that of the former. It has been increasing since the end of 2004 and is now close to 800,000 tons. Moore said, "Maybe Someone should suggest to producers that some of the stocks in their hands should be released to the exchange. But who would be willing to do the one that pierced the copper bubble?†In addition to the low inventory, this week the market is also shrouded in supply. Worryingly, this was due to a strong earthquake in northern Chile on Monday evening. **Other metals lag behind** Adams of BaseMetals.com said, "Although copper prices are strong and may continue to rise after consolidation, but traders and production Traders may sell on this rally, making it difficult for copper prices to rise further. "Although the industrial metals of other LME trades have also risen, but the gains are not obvious." In addition to copper and alloys, other LME metals are still higher than they were before. High point low 1 At about 0%, their trend is more in line with the fundamentals, rather than following copper prices. "Aluminium closed at $1,777 per ton, up $33; zinc rose by $8 to 1,317 per ton. COMEX Copper ---- COMEX Estimates End-to-end volume New York copper ended sharply higher on Friday, with index contracts hitting a new 16-year high and spot monthly contracts hitting record highs as supply shortages and signs of solid demand are attracting fund investors into the market. The United States created a current account deficit in the previous quarter. The drop in the U.S. dollar caused by the record also contributed to the rise in copper futures. A New York trader said, “This week has performed well. The commodity market has been sought after again. Crude oil, gold and copper all closed at a strong technical level. The London Metal Exchange copper There is very little left in the library, which has fallen sharply again today. Investors are actively buying, producers are selling in small quantities, and the fundamentals and technical strength are strong." July July copper contract closed 3.45 higher at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). US cents, to 1.6040 US dollars per pound. Intraday repeatedly refreshed 16-year high, higher to 1.61 US dollars. Spot monthly contract rose to a record high of 1.69 US dollars per pound, to close at 1.6895 US dollars, up 4.60 cents. Some traders Think that given this week Strong level of copper prices near future there will be no small gain. COMEX estimated final volume compared with up to 30,000 ports, port Thursday traded 23,494 Increase 1,796 Thursday mouth open contracts, to 107,087 ports.