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Interpretation of the 12th Five-Year Plan: From a big manufacturing country to a big service country
Recently, an eye-catching move in the investment community is that Shanghai, Ningbo and other places have set up private equity funds that specialize in modern service industries. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" announced not long ago has repeatedly pointed out that "the development of modern service industry" should be accelerated, and the market quickly responded agilely. Looking at the process of global industrialization and the changes in the industrial structure, a basic law is the rapid development of the service industry in the middle and late stages of industrialization. In the past half century, the service industry in the industrialized countries soon surpassed industry in terms of employment and value added, and became the largest share of the national economy. The experience of the pioneering industrialized countries shows that an important source of efficiency improvement in modern economic growth is the development of the service industry. This has played an important role in the structural adjustment of the national economy, the reduction of economic development costs, and especially the reduction of transaction costs. In the next ten years, China is likely to increase from the current per capita GDP of 4,000 US dollars to about 10,000 US dollars, entering the ranks of developed countries. Where is our adjustment and development space in the future? If you only rely on the secondary industry, this is not realistic or not, because the secondary industry is an industry with high capital investment, high energy consumption and high energy consumption. The data shows that the current ratio of China's three industries to GDP is between 45% and 50% for the secondary industry, 40% for the tertiary industry, and 10% to 20% for the primary industry. In developed countries, the ratio of three industries to GDP is generally 70% to 80%, and the United States accounts for 77%. We urgently need to change the situation that economic growth is over-reliant on the secondary industry, accelerate the development of the tertiary industry, and coordinate the industrial structure of the first, second and third. At present, the development plan for the service industry during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is still under development. We should have some basic points in accelerating the development of modern service industry. First, we must vigorously develop the service-oriented service industry, focus on the development of the production service industry, and drive the development of our entire service industry. The second is to standardize and upgrade the service-oriented service industry, and vigorously develop community service industries such as community health, housekeeping services, and child care. The third is to pay attention to improving the service industry oriented to the countryside. Consumer services are primarily services that are tailored to individual needs. China is currently in a period of transition to industrialization in the later stages of industrialization. According to the experience of developed countries such as the United States and Japan, with the advancement of industrialization, social products are continuously enriched. After the basic needs of the people are met, service demand begins to grow rapidly, which will promote the overall rapid rise of the consumer services sector. Maintain the first 20 years of post-industrialization. At present, the consumption structure of residents is changing, and China's consumer service industry is entering the fast lane of development. In the early stage of industrialization, the consumption service expenditure of Chinese residents accounted for only about 20% of the total consumer expenditure, and then continued to rise, and has now reached more than 40%. Compared with the United States and Japan, this proportion still has a large room for growth, and the main driving force comes from the overall upgrade of future residents' consumption. In addition, the modern service industry development plan should increase the promotion of the productive service industry and increase the cultivation of new models and growth points of the productive service industry. We have mentioned such a high status in the producer service industry because in the context of the current transformation of China's manufacturing industry, the development of the production service industry is an important way to increase industrial added value and optimize the allocation of social resources, as well as to achieve technological progress and An important factor in the transformation of intensive economic growth driven by efficiency. According to estimates, the growth rate of G DP during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is expected to be 8%. In 2015, the proportion of China's service industry in GDP will increase to 55%, reaching the level of India in 2009; the productive service industry accounts for 55% of the service industry. , reached the level of South Korea in 2007. By 2015, the added value of the producer service industry will reach 15.8 trillion yuan, and the compound growth rate will reach 21% in the next five years. In the new five years, we should stand at the height of advancing economic restructuring and development mode, strategically plan the development of modern service industry, and seek to transform from a manufacturing power to a service power.