Wen Jiabao: Development of the Economical Macroeconomic Expectation

Wen Jiabao held a seminar on economic situations and listened to opinions and suggestions from economic experts and people from the business community.

The prospect of China’s economic development has become one of the hot spots in the global capital market.

On June 29 and the first day when global stock markets fell sharply, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council convened a symposium on economic situations in Beijing from the areas of macroeconomics, finance, employment, and capital markets, and automobiles, steel, shipbuilding, and textiles. , electronics, banking, real estate and other industries, many parties to listen to economic experts and business people opinions and suggestions.

Will China's economy bottom out again? What measures will the Central Committee take in the second half of the year? For these hot topics, "Daily Economic News" reporter interviewed a number of experts.

Economic development meets expectations

The forthcoming June macro data will have an important impact on the direction of the market in the second half of the year.

This morning, the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing will release the June Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index. In May, the index fell 1.8% year-on-year, and outsiders are concerned that the June index may have a "second consecutive drop."

On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the second quarter macro data. Domestic and foreign institutions predict that the first quarter GDP growth rate has reached 11.9%, and the second quarter GDP growth rate will slow down to 11%. The growth rate of GDP may slow down quarter by quarter, leaving the outside world worried about the Chinese economy or a second bottom.

Since the beginning of the year, the central government has begun to adopt more flexible macro-control policies. At the forum, Wen Jiabao pointed out that China's economy is currently developing in the expected direction of macro-control.

Experts, scholars, and business leaders who participated in the forum also believed that the current economy has maintained a trend of recovery. The pattern of market-driven consumption, investment, and exports jointly stimulating economic growth has basically taken shape. The stability and sustainability of growth have increased. It is expected to maintain rapid growth throughout the year.

According to informed sources, Fan Gang, vice chairman of the China Economic System Reform Research Association, participated in the above-mentioned forum. In May, when Fan Gang attended a forum, he pointed out that the fundamentals of China's economy are good, and there is no need to worry about the second bottom.

Two major problems: exports and inflation

In spite of this, the Chinese economy still faces many pressures in the second half of the year.

Although China’s exports returned in May and once grew by nearly 50%, according to Huo Jianguo, dean of the Ministry of Commerce, export is still a short board among the troika. In the second half of the year, China’s exports are under greater pressure than they are. Six months.

Huo Jianguo told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the increase in export pressure in the second half of the year was due to two major external factors:

First, the overall economic recovery of foreign countries once again entered a vigilant wait-and-see period, and the demand for products is not high. Second, the European debt crisis has brought about the devaluation of the euro and has directly affected China's exports.

Inflation is also a serious situation. In May, the CPI has broken through the 3% “warning line” at the beginning of the year. Coupled with the influence of many unfavorable factors such as the floods in the south, rising food prices are an indisputable fact, which has aggravated the inflation situation.

Since the National Development and Reform Commission has recently adopted administrative measures to intervene and manage inflation expectations, the side also shows this.

What are the policy responses in the second half of the year?

What measures will China take in the second half of the year?

In these two forums, Wen Jiabao stressed that we must consistently handle the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations, maintaining the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, and enhancing the pertinence and flexibility of macroeconomic controls. Sex, improve the level of macro-control, grasp the strength, pace and focus of policy implementation, and further consolidate and develop a good economic situation.

Wen Jiabao said that it is necessary to focus on the current and long-term planning to lay a foundation for the stable and rapid economic development in the next year and beyond. We must seize the current favorable opportunity and focus on promoting economic restructuring, institutional reforms, and changes in the mode of economic development so that macroeconomic regulation will not only help overcome short-term difficulties, resolve current prominent conflicts, but also help build a sustainable development system and mechanism, and ease economic growth. The long-term development of institutional and structural contradictions.

The research team of Wang Tao, UBS chief economist, believes that the government will not introduce any new, major tightening policies in the second half of the year. However, the market remains uncertain about tightening policies including real estate.

Huo Jianguo made some suggestions on export, and reminded that although the foreign trade policy in the second half of the year still needs to be adjusted, changes in policy must always consider the affordability of the company.