Industrial profit in the first 10 months decreased by 3.4% year-on-year

Abstract According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 30, the industry's profits in 22 regions in the country from January to October were 1,786.5 billion yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year, and the decline was 5.7 percentage points lower than that in January-September. The decline in industrial profits has continued to narrow this year, experts say...

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 30, the industry's profits in 22 regions in the country from January to October were 1,786.5 billion yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year, and the decline was 5.7 percentage points lower than that in January-September. Since the beginning of this year, the decline in industrial profits has continued to narrow. Experts pointed out that the rebound in demand is the basis for narrowing the decline in corporate profits. The trend will continue during the year, and corporate profits are expected to turn positive early next year.
Demand recovery has boosted corporate profits. "Responsive recovery is a major factor in narrowing corporate profits." Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at the China International Exchange Center, told reporters. The data shows that among the 39 industrial sectors, 34 industries have seen their profits increase or decrease from January to September. Among them, the profit of rubber products industry increased by 61.0%, the chemical fiber industry increased by 143.8%, the transportation equipment manufacturing industry increased by 33.7%, and the food manufacturing industry increased by 28.4%.
In fact, the decline in industrial profits in China was significantly narrowed in August this year. Since then, the good situation has continued. Wei Fengchun, chief macro analyst of CITIC Securities, pointed out that the continued slowdown in the decline in industrial product prices has also provided room for the recovery of corporate profits.
The data show that from January to October, the income of the main business in 22 regions of China reached 3,248.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the period from January to September.
The profit growth of the enterprise at the beginning of next year may be positive. "China's domestic demand will maintain rapid growth, and the foreign trade situation will start to improve. Therefore, demand will further increase, and the trend of corporate profits will continue." Zhang Yongjun told reporters.
Wei Fengchun pointed out that the profit data of Chinese enterprises will be more attractive in November and December, but the current rate of improvement of corporate profits is not fast, mainly due to the serious problem of overcapacity, and the recent rise of some public goods, such as water price and coal price, and labor force. The rise in cost prices has increased the burden on businesses.
Wei Fengchun said that the profit growth of Chinese enterprises may turn positive at the beginning of next year, and may return to the level before the financial crisis in the middle of last year after the second quarter of next year. However, in general, the recovery of corporate profits will be a slow process, which will be a U-shaped recovery. Next year's restructuring will become an important regulation target of the government, which is an important development for some high-tech enterprises with high added value. Opportunities, and for some companies with high energy consumption and serious pollution, profit growth may be affected. But overall, the recovery of corporate profits will not change.
"Corporate profit is a lagging indicator of economic operation, and it is also an important criterion for judging whether the impact of the crisis on China has completely subsided." Wei Fengchun said that after the corporate profits reached the pre-crisis level in the third quarter of next year, it may indicate that the economic stimulus policy has expired. .
However, Wei Fengchun pointed out that such an exit does not mean reducing the government's investment in economic stimulus. Instead, it will shift the investment input of "emergency" in the short-term to the consumption investment with the goal of long-term economic development, which is only a structural adjustment.

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