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Zhang Liqun pointed out that the reasons for the major changes in the Chinese economy in 2008 are completely different from those of the developed countries such as the United States, and the recovery of the Chinese economy and the trajectory of the developed countries are completely different. "China's economic development first has a broad domestic market. After that, there are good factors to support economic development. In the context of sustained and rapid economic development, more and more products will satisfy people's growing needs. In terms of employment, the number of jobs will continue to increase, and income will continue to increase, providing a lasting support for the expansion of consumer demand," Zhang Liqun said.
According to statistics released by relevant departments, China's economic growth rate in the first four months of this year has generally rebounded. Zhang Liqun said that this shows that the effect of the policies adopted by the previous government to stimulate investment has already been shown very quickly. For the economic growth in the second quarter, he believes that the GDP growth rate is significantly higher than the first quarter.
Zhang Liqun pointed out that from the perspective of investment, the government has invested in infrastructure on a large scale this year in order to stimulate the economy. The investment in the early stage was mainly land development. The investment in land development was large, and the investment growth was obvious, but the order was formed. Rarely, the pulling effect on industrial production is limited. After the completion of land development, with the acceleration of construction activities, various orders will obviously accelerate growth, and the investment will be obvious to the whole industry and other industries. From the perspective of upgrading the consumption structure, it has recovered quickly. In the context of rapid growth in demand for automobiles and housing, market-led demand is expected to gradually pick up. The recent government-led investment growth has been accelerating, so the accelerated growth of domestic demand is sustainable. From the perspective of external demand, foreign trade exports increased by -22.6% in April, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from January to March, and exports continued to maintain a negative growth of around 20%. There was no further deterioration.
Based on the above analysis, Zhang Liqun pointed out that while domestic demand is accelerating growth, and the external demand situation has not deteriorated further, the trend of increasing economic growth rate is expected to continue, and China's economy has initially entered an upward channel.
Zhang Liqun also pointed out that external demand may still fluctuate greatly. There are also many unstable factors in the accelerated growth of domestic investment consumption. If it is not possible to adjust the total demand growth, the economic recovery may show certain fluctuations. In addition, the economic recovery will be accompanied by structural adjustments in various aspects. Finally, compared with the huge scale of production and supply potential, although the growth of total demand will continue to accelerate, the demand will remain relatively insufficient relative to supply over a long period of time. The relationship between supply and demand will be balanced or partial supply exceeds demand. There will also be a pattern of oversupply, which will lead to more intense market competition and lower price increases. Domestic demand growth is accelerating, although it will not change the pattern of total supply and demand soon, but it will drive economic growth to accelerate, which will result in low-price, high-growth economic operation characteristics.
In response to the above situation, the government should adopt a targeted policy and actively promote structural adjustment by promoting the role of the market mechanism to promote economic recovery and maintain a healthy and sustainable situation.
Zhang Liqun: China's economy has initially entered the recovery channel
Zhang Liqun, deputy secretary-general of the Academic Committee of the Development Research Center of the State Council and researcher of the Macroeconomic Research Department, said at the "2009 China Trust Summit Forum" on June 5 that the Chinese economy has initially entered the recovery channel.