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The oversupply situation of the global solar energy industry in the past few years has led to the decline of polysilicon prices. Most new investors are unable to sustain losses. Since 2012, the operation of the production line has been suspended, which has effectively reduced the effective production capacity of global polysilicon to the current relatively loose supply and demand. In 2014, there may be a significant rebound in the market, but the polysilicon production line needs a quarter of time to resume work. EnegyTrend believes that the supply and demand situation of polysilicon in the first quarter of next year will be tight and even in short supply.
According to relevant data, in 2013, the global polysilicon output was around 170,000 tons, and the conversion was about 31GW. The average quarter supply was about 7GW~8GW. Looking forward to 1Q14, EnergyTrend estimates that the demand for silicon wafers is about 8GW, but in terms of current output, the supply of polysilicon is about 40,000 tons, which translates to a supply of about 7.2GW. On the other hand, it is currently in the fourth quarter. Demand remains optimistic, and the industry's current shipments are still normal. It is expected that the inventory level will remain normal during the quarter. Considering the situation at both ends of supply and demand, EnergyTrend speculated that the supply of 1Q14 polysilicon may be tight according to current conditions.
The EnergyTrend research institute said that whether the tight supply and demand situation in the first quarter can be resolved depends on several variables: the speed of returning to the mainland polysilicon plant, the status of new capacity input and production (Hanhwa, Tokuyama, OCI, etc), and new capacity. The ratio of semiconductor grade to solar grade products. If the above variables are progressing as expected or even exceeded expectations, the supply and demand situation of polysilicon will be relieved from the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second season.
2014 polysilicon PV module demand is likely to be tight
Abstract The price competition in the solar market is gradually coming to an end. The demand in emerging markets continues to grow, and the demand in 2014 is expected to grow significantly. However, the EnergyTrend Gold membership report shows that the actual grid-connected volume in 2013 was estimated at 28.6 GW,...
The competition in the solar market is gradually coming to an end, and the demand in emerging markets continues to grow. It is expected that demand will grow significantly in 2014. However, the EnergyTrend Gold membership report shows that the actual grid-connected volume is estimated at 28.6 GW in 2013, and the annual component shipments are around 33.3 GW. The overall solar energy supply and demand situation is relatively loose. In 2014, the module shipments were around 40GW, but the actual grid connection was around 39.5GW, and the components will be tight.
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