Excessive refining capacity and direct pricing mechanism

The large-scale "oil shortage" in 2008 still leaves people with a scary heart. Today, two years later, the concern over the excess refining capacity has been overwhelming; two years ago, the highest international oil price reached 147 US dollars/barrel, when the domestic No. 93 gasoline was more than 5 per litre, and in 2010 the international oil price hovered at US$ 70/ Near the barrel, while the domestic No. 93 gasoline is more than six per liter. Everything is afraid of comparison. A comparative problem emerges. Through the fog of overcapacity debate, behind the rise and fall of oil prices, the crux of all contradictions are directed at the current domestic oil price mechanism.

Time back two months ago, despite the general expectation that the price of oil is facing downward adjustment, since June of this year, there have been no adjustments to oil prices for more than two months. Some people and the media pointed out that due to the failure of the National Development and Reform Commission, the domestic oil price has missed three opportunities for downward adjustment and thus missed the opportunity to benefit the people. According to this National Development and Reform Commission, there is no phenomenon of "the price of oil rises fast and falls slowly, and rises more and falls less". Faced with numerous doubts and demands for reforms in the market, the NDRC has already started to evaluate the effectiveness of the current oil price management measures and established an open and transparent market-based oil price formation mechanism once again on the agenda.

The current pricing mechanism for refined oil products has changed the arbitrariness and arbitrariness of pricing in the past. It has taken a major step in market-oriented reforms, and its role cannot be denied. This new mechanism stipulates that: within 22 working days in a row, when the crude oil price in the international market rises by more than 4%, the domestic refined oil price will increase accordingly; when the crude oil price in the international market drops by more than 4%, the domestic refined oil price will also decrease accordingly. . The new mechanism is still essentially in the semi-market stage under the guidance of the government. It seems fair and reasonable, but there are still problems such as large randomness, too generality, insufficient transparency, and strong lag. During the interview, the reporter learned that the current oil pricing mechanism mainly has the following three problems.

First of all, linking the price of a product to the rise or fall in the price of raw materials is to subsidize the loss of the refinery with financial subsidies. In effect, it uses all the taxpayer’s money to subsidize refined oil consumers. Although the profits of fixed refineries have also guaranteed the domestic refineries to some extent, Not affected by changes in international crude oil prices, but does it mean that petrochemical companies do not need to bear the risk of changes in raw material prices as other companies do?

In fact, refineries can achieve drought and flood protection through new pricing mechanisms. The cost-plus-profit pricing mechanism essentially implies that the larger the scale of the refinery is, the more profits will be generated, thereby stimulating the expansion of refinery production capacity. This year, 30 million tons of new oil refining will be built. With regard to production capacity, under the factors of weak global economic recovery and apparent decline in the domestic economy, there are growing concerns over excess refining capacity.

Secondly, the price adjustment rule is also "seeing flowers in the fog," and the specific rules are transparent and fuzzy. The “maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel, based on the crude oil price in the international market, is defined in the pricing mechanism, and the domestic average processing costs, taxes, reasonable circulation costs, and appropriate profits are to be determined”. How much should these costs and "appropriate profits" be? Moreover, the "may" adjustment in the rules is not necessarily an adjustment, leaving greater flexibility. The details of the calculation of the moving average price and other details based on any formula have not yet been released by the National Development and Reform Commission, and relevant departments are required to further solve the problem.

Thirdly, according to the provisions of the Measures, the adjustment of oil prices needs to take into consideration the changes in the average moving price of 22 consecutive working days in the international crude oil market. "This obviously has a certain lag," and two weeks or two weeks is the reporter's acceptance of more time in the feedback.

It is precisely because of the lagging nature of the current mechanism that China’s oil prices have risen while international oil prices have fallen, or that the price of refined oil has fallen while international oil prices have risen and oil prices have gone upside down. This is not conducive to the marketization and internationalization of refined oil product reforms in China. . In addition, the lagging nature of the current mechanism may easily lead to guessing changes in the price of oil based on changes in international crude oil price whenever the critical price adjustment point appears, and adopt corresponding countermeasures, resulting in market fluctuations.

Recalling the mechanism for the formation of refined oil prices, it is not difficult to find that the road to refined oil prices has not been smooth. The reason is that the price of oil is not simply a market-oriented approach to the international market. It is backed by the status of business operations, changes in international prices, supply and demand in the domestic market, the degree of scarcity of resources, the ability of all parties in the society, and national energy security. Multiple considerations have made each adjustment of refined oil prices a game between the interests of all parties. From this perspective, we may be able to better understand the prudent attitude of the government's current pricing mechanism reform.

From a global perspective, there are fewer and fewer countries currently priced by the government, and most countries have already implemented market-oriented pricing mechanisms for refined oil products. Although there have been such problems in the reform of refined oil products, there are more or less flaws in the mechanism for the formation of refined oil prices, but the direction of marketization for reforms is a general trend, which is also considered to be fundamental in redressing the current domestic oil price and oil refining chaos. . Many people in the industry have stated that under the current situation that international oil prices continue to weaken, it provides a favorable opportunity for reforms in the market-oriented reform of domestic oil price formation mechanisms.

Whether it is the "oil shortage" or "excess", the refined oil pricing mechanism has certain responsibilities, the pricing mechanism is not perfect, and all sorts of weird phenomena will continue to be staged. Continuing to reform and improve the existing oil price management measures to make them more scientific and reasonable is undoubtedly an urgent task.