Log shortage 2011 wooden furniture prices may rise sharply

In the early winter of 2010, the prices of Northeast Mufang and newly cut logs increased again, and the history of log price increases was rare. Industry insiders predict that the huge increase in log costs will inevitably cause the price of Northeast timber to soar in 2011!

Smooth supply and demand, Northeast timber market is still booming

From October to November last year, due to the Guangzhou Asian Games, the overall demand for the wood processing industry in South China has not continued to grow, but Northeast Wood has once again become the "focus" of the wood market due to its excellent sales performance and strong price trends. According to the Northeast material distributors of the timber market in Guangdong Province, the performance of some stores in the first 11 months even exceeded the same period in 2006 and 2007; the supply and demand of most varieties are booming and continue to sell well. The market is booming beyond expectation, and the inventory of many stores in the market is in a hurry, making it difficult to fully guarantee customer demand.

The sales performance of Dongbei timber continued to rise, and the prices of Dongfang Mufang also rose. From the end of October to the present, the prices of northeastern timber have risen again, and the prices of various specifications and grades of basswood, birch, catalpa, oak, and ash willows have increased by between 10% and 20%. For example, different specifications grades of lime The price of wood is increased by 200 yuan / m3-300 yuan / m3, the price of catalpa of different specifications is increased by 200 yuan / m3-300 yuan / m3, and the price of oak of different specifications is increased by 400 yuan / m3-500 yuan / m3.

According to reports, from September to October, the freight rate slightly increased, but did not cause the market price of Northeast timber to increase; since the end of October, the cost of raw materials of Northeast timber increased, directly triggering a new round of price hikes in Northeast China's northeastern timber industry. The material rally has not stopped.

The tight supply of Northeast logs has become a popular commodity

The timber market in Northeast China is very hot! Both supply and demand are booming, and the quantity and price have become red, which has become the norm in the market, but the tight supply has become a new problem for timber dealers and downstream enterprises.

Many dealers believe that in recent years, news of the ban on logging and the reduction of timber production in the Xing'an Mountains and other regions in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, as well as the implementation of various timber protection measures in Russia, the supply of various Northeast logs will become increasingly tight. In fact, the same is true. For example, the harvest volume of related forestry departments in Heilongjiang fell sharply from 4.4 million cubic meters in 2011 to 900,000 cubic meters. It can be seen that in 2011, the logging volume of Northeast China will continue to be reduced, and the year-on-year decline in log supply has become a foregone conclusion. Not only that, in future years, the forestry authorities in various regions in Northeast China will continue to lower their timber harvesting quotas.

The implementation of the cutting policy has created a situation of "more monks and less porridge" in the northeast timber market, and this situation will also become the norm. In recent years, even if the wood operators have a large amount of funds, it is difficult to ensure that they can purchase sufficient supplies. Sometimes, there is even a phenomenon that "there is no money to buy logs," especially hot-selling varieties such as linden, birch, ash, etc. are hot. The newly cut logs were robbed by traders early. This situation has rushed a lot of information and lagging timber dealers.

Costs rise sharply

It is foreseeable that the resource gap formed between the quantity of log mining in Northeast and the overall demand of the downstream industry will increase year by year, and the contradiction between the supply and demand of Northeast timber will be difficult to resolve effectively for a long time. The fact that the supply of logs from Northeast China is declining year by year will strengthen the price increase trend of Northeast timber, and this strengthening effect has already emerged.

Some dealers pointed out that in 2010, the performance of Northeast timber was excellent and the annual price increase was not small, but this may only be the "prelude" to the sharp increase in Northeast timber prices in 2011. Northeast logs that have been newly cut this winter have raised prices sharply, and a new wave of price increases is brewing.

It is understood that since November, the price increase of various logs is really rare. For example, the price of newly produced linden logs of different specifications has been increased by 300 yuan / m3-600 yuan / m3; the cost of birch logs with a thickness of 18 cm The price has risen by 660 yuan / m3; the price of some speckled mangrove logs has reached 5,700 yuan / m3.

In addition, the prices of other logs, such as elm, oak, catal and pine, all rose to varying degrees. The increase in Northeast logs is not small, but the current price is not the final price, and the price of Northeast logs is still rising. It is speculated that in 2011, the price increase of Dongfang Mufang should not be lower than that of logs, and the price of related products will hit a record high. Some "sniffing" sensitive companies have begun to hoard goods, snapping up Northeast materials at relatively cheap costs, in preparation for the coming year.

Some dealers revealed that at present, during the season of new wood production, local forestry departments and middle traders continue to slightly adjust the price of plateau wood in order to test the market's ability to bear. When the supply of goods is sufficient before and after the Spring Festival, the price of Northeast logs may rise Retreat, but even so, its decline will be very limited.

Strengthen the weakening of Northeast timber trade increase variables

Industry insiders pointed out that regardless of the short-term trend or the long-term trend, the prices of Northeast timber are already in the upward channel, and the impact of rising prices every year on timber operators and wood processing enterprises is obvious.

First of all, high quality and low price is a major feature of Northeast timber. With the development of this situation, the volume and price advantages of Northeast timber have gradually weakened. Many wood processing enterprises either reduce the purchase volume of Northeast timber, or buy low-grade Northeast timber, or even use other timber as a substitute to reduce their dependence on Northeast timber. Wood in Myanmar, Africa and other places will have a broader market.

Secondly, with the increase in log costs, coupled with other costs such as transportation costs and labor wages, the actual trade profits of Northeast Timber have been declining year by year. For timber traders, the profit of Northeast Timber is basically fixed, and the increase in comprehensive costs has caused the profit rate to fall. When the investment benefits are not ideal, the risks of the Northeast Timber Trade will increase, and the survivability and competitiveness of the relevant companies will weaken simultaneously. Competition in the Northeast Timber Market will become increasingly fierce.

Third, the price increase of Northeast China's timber will also promote the primary processing enterprises to improve their processing technology and management level, and increase profits by increasing the output rate and cutting high-quality lumber. At the same time, furniture, wood products and other industries also need to ensure a higher qualification rate. Improve product grades and added value to alleviate cost pressure with higher efficiency.

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