Renminbi against the US dollar hit a single-day biggest increase

Yesterday, the RMB-to-dollar spot market closed up 0.51%, the largest single-day gain since the exchange rate reform in 2005. At the same time, the intraday volatility of 492 points also hit a new high since the exchange rate reform in 2005.

According to data released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar was 6.6580 yuan per day, which was also 112 basis points higher than the previous day. In the past two weeks, the central parity of the RMB has shown relatively two-way fluctuations, and the uncertainty of the US dollar has strengthened this trend.

A foreign exchange trader said that the new regulations of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on the lower limit management of the settlement and sale of foreign exchange positions showed the tightening signal of foreign exchange management, and the market cautious mentality was intensified, causing the RMB to fall to the upper limit of fluctuation of nearly 0.5%. The violent fluctuations made the organization's mentality more cautious, and the quotation spreads were significantly enlarged. In the case that the market's bearing capacity was obviously frustrated, individual large-value customers pushed the exchange rate to change instantly, but the trading volume was relatively light.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notice yesterday stating that on the basis of the management of the existing position limit of existing bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange, the bank's position balance is subject to a lower limit management, and the ratio of bank processing and collection of foreign exchange is adjusted from 30% to 20%. According to industry insiders, this new foreign exchange management policy refers to the disorderly flow of cross-border capital. While effectively controlling the influx of hot money, the supply of US dollars will also decrease, which will help ease the future appreciation pressure of the RMB.

Yesterday, the RMB-to-dollar spot market staged a “roller coaster” market. After the announcement of the new regulations of the above-mentioned foreign exchange bureaus, the RMB exchange rate plummeted, which made the cautious mentality of market institutions further intensified and the transaction was rampant. Subsequently, due to certain market-based technical reasons, the quoted price difference of the market inquiry suddenly increased, and the closing price “abnormal” rose to 6.6440 yuan, up 341 basis points from the previous day.

As of press time yesterday, overseas non-deliverable forward foreign exchange (NDF) market one-year US dollar / RMB NDF reported 6.4450 yuan, 6.4720 yuan at the end of the previous day; overseas renminbi against the US dollar immediately reported 6.5950 yuan, compared with the previous day 6.5900 yuan fell slightly. In the domestic market, the US dollar closed at 1150 points against the one-year swap mid-term premium, which is equivalent to the market's belief that the renminbi against the US dollar will reach 6.5290 yuan a year later.

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