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The subsidy is lowered, and the component price is forced downward. According to the Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Adjusting the On-grid Electricity Price of Photovoltaic Power Generation onshore Wind Power, the on-grid tariff of photovoltaic power generation will be adjusted once a year according to the cost change. Therefore, the photovoltaic power price in 2018 will inevitably come down again. Relatively speaking, everyone is more concerned about the extent of the downward adjustment. According to the forecast, the downward adjustment of the next PV grid price will increase, which should be between 0.15-0.2 yuan. What is different from previous years is that the probability of distributed PV subsidies that have not been lowered for four years will be lowered in 2018. In other words, PV subsidies will be fully reduced in 2018. In order to maintain the rate of return, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will inevitably fall further. How should the cost of photovoltaic power generation fall? From the point of view of cost reduction, system components other than PV modules have only room for inverter price reduction, and the reduction is limited. Other products including brackets, electrical equipment, and cables are relatively rigid in price, and this part of the cost is difficult to be greatly reduced. As a result, the burden of system cost reduction remains on the component side. Therefore, in the case of a comprehensive reduction in subsidies, the price of PV modules will be further reduced in 2018. The decline in component costs depends on process optimization and battery efficiency. In terms of process optimization, there has recently been a popularization of process optimization such as diamond wire cutting; in terms of battery efficiency improvement, there is a expansion of PERC batteries, and there will be a development of new high-efficiency batteries such as N-type double-sided batteries. So in general, the decline in subsidies will largely lead to a drop in the price of components. From the current component process improvement and battery efficiency improvement, the industry has already prepared for the subsidy. The subsidy is in arrears and will be alleviated in 2018. Relatively speaking, photovoltaic power generation is an industry with a long investment cycle, so the capital flow of PV companies is particularly important. However, the existence of subsidy arrears has caused PV companies to bear additional financial pressures, and the debt ratio of PV companies is generally high. Lin Boqiang, president of the China Energy Policy Research Institute, said recently that with the rapid expansion of wind installations, the gap in new energy subsidies is increasing dramatically. In 2012, China’s “new energy subsidy†account has a surplus of 15 billion yuan, and by 2016 Turned to a deficit of about 70 billion yuan. In 2017, China's PV installed capacity has increased substantially, and in just nine months, it has brought about nearly 30 billion yuan in subsidies. According to the policy, the subsidy for new energy should be compensated by the renewable energy surcharge collected in the sales price, but the subsidy from the renewable energy surcharge can not keep up with the growth of new energy power generation. At present, it is necessary to completely solve the problem of subsidy arrears, and only accelerate the development of new energy power generation and accelerate the exit of new energy subsidies. However, it still takes several years for the subsidy to completely exit. If there is no new policy, subsidy arrears will always be a problem. So before this, the state still needs other policies to alleviate the problem of subsidy arrears. What is worth looking forward to is the green card trading policy. The National Energy Administration officially launched the voluntary subscription of green power certificates on July 1. Wind power and photovoltaic power generation enterprises can apply for green certificates through renewable energy power generation projects and sell them to subscribers. The price is not higher than the renewable energy price of the corresponding power of the certificate. Additional fund subsidy amount. According to the “Notice on Trial Implementation of Renewable Energy Green Power Certificate Issuance and Voluntary Subscription System†issued by the National Energy Administration, according to the market subscription situation, renewable energy power quota assessment and green power certificate mandatory constraint transaction will be launched from 2018 on time. . If the renewable energy power quota assessment and the green power certificate mandatory transaction are initiated in 2018, it will be a feasible solution for enterprises that are suffering from subsidies and are struggling with shortage of funds. Since wind power and photovoltaic power generation companies sell green energy certificates for renewable energy, the corresponding electricity consumption is no longer subsidized by the national renewable energy tariff. Therefore, the implementation of the mandatory binding of green certificates will also ease the pressure on subsidies. In addition, the promotion of the distributed “wall sales†model is also expected to ease the pressure on subsidies, because in the “sold wall sales†mode, distributed PV has a higher rate of return, which will enable users to access the Internet at a lower price. For enterprises that hold a large number of ground-distributed photovoltaic power plants but are trapped in subsidy arrears, they can obtain stable cash flow income through the “selling wall sales†model and greatly improve the company's capital operation. According to the plan, before June 30, 2018, the National Energy Administration will summarize and evaluate the pilot work of distributed power generation market-oriented transactions, improve the relevant mechanism system, and determine the scope and time of promotion as appropriate. In general, in the face of subsidy arrears, the country is looking forward to solving problems through multiple means, and other relevant policies may be introduced in 2018. Non-photovoltaic costs are reduced, industry standards tend to improve. At present, although the photovoltaic industry is getting closer to the goal of cheaper Internet access, it is still necessary to further reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation in order to achieve comprehensive affordable Internet access. However, while photovoltaic power generation has significantly reduced costs through various process improvements and battery efficiency breakthroughs, non-photovoltaic costs such as land and tax have remained high, and this situation is expected to improve. In September 2017, the National Energy Administration issued the “Notice on Reducing the Tax Burden of Enterprises in the Field of Renewable Energy†(Draft for Comment), which released the “Policy to extend the VAT and refund 50%†and “Exemption†It is good to collect the land occupation tax and to stop the local government’s arbitrary charges. In addition, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the State Council Office of Poverty Alleviation and the National Energy Administration also issued the “Opinions on Supporting Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation and Standardizing the Use of Photovoltaic Power Generation Industry†in September 2017, and once again clarified the regulations on the use of land for photovoltaic power station construction and relaxed The use of land for the benefit of the country and the benefit of the country. If the above policies are well implemented, non-photovoltaic costs will be significantly reduced. In addition, due to the rapid development, it is difficult for the various standards of the photovoltaic industry to keep up with the market. Without standards and norms, it is difficult for the industry to maintain good development. At present, China's photovoltaic industry is in urgent need of an industry standard system with authority, wide coverage and ability to meet the development of the industry. In this regard, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Certification and Accreditation Administration issued the "Notice on Improving the Technical Indicators of Major PV Products and Strengthening Supervision Work". By 2020, China will initially form a scientific and rational, technologically advanced and coordinated photovoltaic industry standard. The system basically realizes the full coverage of the basic standards and key standards of the photovoltaic industry, and generally meets the needs of the development of the photovoltaic industry. It is worth mentioning that there will be 8 new standards implemented in 2018, which may be able to explain the lack of photovoltaic industry standards. On November 23, the National Energy Administration issued the No. 10 announcement in 2017. The announcement showed that the National Energy Administration approved 204 industry standards, which were implemented on March 1, 2018, including 8 photovoltaic standards. The eight criteria are: 
The industry is shuffling soon, the company faces the challenge of life and death. Although the national policy is full of benefits, it is an indisputable fact that the market competition is becoming more and more fierce. The industry is opening a new round of reshuffle, and the company faces the challenge of life and death. First of all, for the upstream enterprises, due to the strong rise of the single crystal industry in recent years, there is a tendency to gradually replace polycrystals. It is predicted that the single crystal penetration rate will reach 27% as of 2016, and the ratio is expected to exceed 35% in 2017. In the future, the single crystal permeability will reach more than 50%, becoming the main force of high-efficiency products. The rise of single crystal is bound to squeeze the living space of the polycrystalline industry, and some polycrystalline enterprises cannot escape the fate of bankruptcy. In addition, it is understood that the polycrystalline faucet's GCL-Golden wire cut polycrystalline transformation progress exceeded expectations, the proportion of diamond fiber products in November has exceeded 90%, the remaining B5 machines at the end of the year have also been completely remodeled, currently 100% Implement orders next year. The transformation of the diamond wire brings higher cutting speed and lower silicon consumption. There is no doubt that polysilicon manufacturers that cannot popularize diamond wire cutting technology will gradually be eliminated. For component manufacturers, the future will be the world of efficient components due to the requirements of “cost reduction and efficiency increaseâ€. At present, high-efficiency products such as PERC components, black silicon components, double glass components, and double-sided components will become the darling of the market. And those components with low efficiency and backward technology will gradually withdraw from the stage. Without future technological advantages, enterprises that cannot produce high-efficiency components will have difficulty keeping up with the development of the industry. For downstream power station investors, due to the distributed outbreak, the focus of PV development has shifted to the central and eastern regions, and the land cost in the central and eastern regions is relatively high. Due to the scarcity of high-quality roof resources, the development of household photovoltaics may trigger a wave of “grabbing the roofâ€. In view of the fact that distributed PV is still in the early stage of development, it will be well received by the market for its popularity and the products that have taken the lead in brand image and gained good reputation. Summary Overall, despite the pressure of subsidy reduction, the industry itself is becoming more efficient, and non-photovoltaic costs are expected to decline, so the downward adjustment of subsidies should not have an excessive impact on the industry. In addition, the implementation of industry standards and regulations will allow the market to mature. It is expected that distributed photovoltaics will continue to grow rapidly in 2018, and the proportion of new installed capacity is expected to exceed 50%. On this basis, the photovoltaic market in 2018 will continue to grow. The inflection point of the photovoltaic industry may come soon.
Shengji will decline: In 2018, the photovoltaic industry will turn the corner?
The 2017 year is coming to an end. The achievements of China's PV industry in this year have attracted worldwide attention. In the last month of 2017, we will look forward to the development prospects of the PV market in 2018. I still remember that at the beginning of this year, after the unprecedented wave of rushing in 2016, the industry is holding on to the glory of the glory. It is widely expected that it will be difficult to continue the 2016 event in 2017. But in fact, in 2017, the photovoltaic industry once again achieved leapfrog development, and the achievements were even more shocking than 2016. After the continuous breakthrough, can the photovoltaic industry in 2018 continue to be hot? Under the pressure of falling subsidies and cheap Internet access, will it be extremely prosperous in 2018, ushered in the adjustment period of the industry?