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Expansion of investigation scope
Looking back at history, the United States announced on October 11, 2012 a "double anti-" final ruling on China's photovoltaics, showing that all Chinese PV products exported to the United States must pay an anti-dumping tariff of 18.32% to 249.96%, and pay 14.78%~ 15.97% countervailing duty. However, China's PV companies have “save the curve to save the countryâ€, and the photovoltaic cells produced in Taiwan are assembled into components on the mainland and sold to the United States to properly avoid tariffs.
Since then, the US Department of Commerce has been forced to announce in June and July this year that it has initially determined that there are subsidies and dumpings for crystalline silicon photovoltaic products exported to the United States from China and Taiwan.
It is understood that the United States has twice "double opposition" to China. It was originally planned to announce the final result on the 11th of this month, but as of now, there has been no news. The Securities Times reporter interviewed that the domestic PV industry's expectations for this result are generally consistent: the tax rate adjustment is not large, but the scope of the investigation will be greatly expanded.
A number of executives from photovoltaic companies in East China told Securities Times that the first "double-reverse" survey in the United States was mainly for crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells, but the second "double-reverse" is likely to expand the investigation to crystalline silicon photovoltaic products. , including batteries, components, laminates, solar panels, and more. However, the specific content also needs to see the official announcement.
In fact, in August this year, the European Commission disclosed the final result of the anti-dumping investigation on China's PV, and the silicon wafer was also excluded. The aforementioned executives all said that according to European and American practices, silicon wafers as upstream raw materials will not be constrained by “double-reverseâ€, but they may be investigated in the downstream, which also has an indirect impact on wafer companies.
Transformation to monocrystalline silicon
Minsheng, a new energy analyst of Minsheng Securities, analyzed the reasons for the negative treatment of “double-reverse†by domestic enterprises. At present, the results of the US “double-reverse†finalization of China’s photovoltaics have not been the focus of the industry’s attention, and the negative impact may have been Market digestion. This year, the installed capacity of new PV in China is obviously not as good as expected. The effect of some PV development support policies has not yet appeared. The demand for Japanese market will decline next year, which may be a more anxious issue for PV manufacturing. The industry seems to have entered the “crazy period†in the near future, but some companies with high product conversion rates and better cost control will still stand out.
In fact, many PV companies have begun to take counter-measures to digest the negative impact of “double-reverseâ€. For example, CLP PV has set up a factory in Turkey. Sunlight Sunshine has foundries in India, South Africa and Poland. In the case of Yingli, it was announced that it would establish factories in Taiwan and Thailand. In addition, because consumer goods are more likely to evade the “double-reverse†risk, many PV companies are entering the consumer segment.
Despite this, the industry generally expects that “double-reverse†will affect domestic PV exports of US$3 billion. Fortunately, the degree of impact on the upstream wafer manufacturing will be reduced. On the one hand, there is no direct investigation; on the Other hand, the market has fully digested, and the wafer companies began to upgrade their products.
A photovoltaic company CEO told reporters that due to historical habits, higher conversion efficiency, and stronger single-crystal power generation capacity, monocrystalline silicon is actually more recognized in overseas markets. In the future, the substitution of monocrystalline silicon for other silicon wafers will become stronger and stronger.
US PV dual-reverse final cut will be less impact on monocrystalline silicon enterprises
Abstract Following the launch of anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on solar photovoltaic products from China at the beginning of this month, the results of the second "double opposition" final ruling by the United States to China will also be disclosed in the near future. Although the results are not known, the industry generally expects that the scope of this final ruling will be from...
Following the launch of anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on solar photovoltaic products from China at the beginning of this month, the results of the second "double opposition" final ruling by the United States to China will also be disclosed in the near future. Although the results are not known, the industry generally expects that the scope of this final ruling will be extended from batteries to photovoltaic products, but silicon as the upstream raw material is likely to "escape this robbery." In addition, the industry also expects that China's PV exports of more than US$3 billion will be affected. As most of the downstream products are made of polysilicon, the future performance of polysilicon wafer enterprises will be variable, but the monocrystalline silicon wafer enterprises with high conversion efficiency will be affected. Or reduce, this "double-reverse" is also forcing more silicon manufacturers to transform into more efficient conversion of monocrystalline silicon.