China's automobile after-market "river and lake": the four "sects" and many masters, who is ups and downs?

[Hui Cong Auto Parts Network] "The world is the trend, the long-term must be combined, the long-term must be divided" is the first sentence of the first trip of the Three Kingdoms, used to describe the Chinese automotive aftermarket is also quite appropriate. China's first automobile has been produced offline since 1956. After several stages of development and precipitation, the automotive aftermarket is gradually becoming the focus of power capital chasing, but the excessively fragmented million B end plus local princes, this Although the automobile after-market has experienced a long-term and inevitable trend, it is also difficult. But whether it is integration or integration, integration is the general trend, this is fundamental.

- rivers and lakes -

"There are people and places where there are rivers and lakes." Although many martial arts novels are not directly stated, the contents are all explaining this truth, and China's automobile aftermarket is also a river and lake. There are stories and sects in places where there are rivers and lakes. Resentment, everything is right and wrong.

This article is from the perspective of the story of the rivers and lakes and the sects of the automobile aftermarket. From the three years of review released by the Ministry of Transport document No. 186, the overall market has made certain progress and improvement. Although the author is also a "sacrificial" in the market progress, it is undeniable that the research and development of the underlying data and information systems Application, practitioners are more open and pragmatic, policy is released one by one, capital is of the order of magnitude (basically there is no single within 50 million, we can only know after the actual situation), the post market is in the line "The status of the field has been the theme that can not be ignored when the capital predators are laid out (eat, wear, live, and travel, the automobile market belongs to the "line" field), after all, it is called "the trillion-level market", otherwise the author Will be the fish on the board.

- Jianghu Story -

Like all the rivers and lakes in the competition, cheats, treasures, status, the main line of post-market competition is: through the standard and certification of the auto parts manufacturers and their products, and the linear circulation of the auto parts after the production of the line The construction of the auto parts supply chain with relatively large scale and monopoly status, if at this time, the world should be half. Looking forward to the future, if the problem of auto parts supply chain is completely solved, the auto repair chain operated by brand scale can be divided into another half of the world, thus providing truly cross-regional, standardized and high-quality maintenance services for hundreds of millions of car owners in China.

But the author has a suspense for the future: Is the upstream auto parts supply chain and the downstream auto repair chain two "kings" or a "king"? Or have you been separated by princes for many years? The answer can only be answered by the future market. The essence of the battle for the throne is to revolve around the control of the industrial chain in the three major areas of auto parts production-distribution-consumption. It is also a dispute between the authorization system and the sectarians in the post-independence market. It is also magnified by China manufacturing and overseas manufacturing, and There is no war of smoke between the countries. In this regard, we only discuss the story of the rivers and lakes, others are not discussed.

The main categories of the post-market are: auto parts manufacturing enterprises, auto parts supply chain enterprises, auto repair chain enterprises, vehicle manufacturing enterprises, and the main top players are: financial institutions, insurance companies, governments, BAT and other Internet categories. There is also a group of mass players - the post-market practitioners, is also a force that cannot be ignored. After all, water can carry a boat, but also overturn the boat, especially the socialized division of labor based on platform + personal trends, the booming of the Internet + Let the author have more imagination space for this (financial institutions and insurance companies are a kind of people in the eyes of the author, so they are separated because of industrial discussion).

- time conditions -

"Tian Shi, Ge Li, Ren He" is the precondition for success, which is derived from the summary of numerous wars by the military law. However, in terms of the “daytime” of the post-market business war, the author believes that the Chinese auto aftermarket is not yet fully equipped with the best weather conditions for the following reasons:

1. The average age of the car is still less than 5 years;

2. The indicators of per capita vehicles are far behind the developed countries;

3. The fragmentation pattern of each segment of the entire industrial chain has formed a foundation;

4. China's unique market mechanism and business culture atmosphere;

5. The battlefield for industrial breakthroughs is in China, but the war is global;

6. The logical relationship between the volume formed by the market structure and the basic business rules.

Based on the above six points analysis, if you want to control the industrial chain in a short time through a certain amount of capital or the Internet, it is basically difficult to achieve, including the top-down promotion through policy, it will be more difficult.

The commercial war in the aftermarket of the automobile must be a three-dimensional multi-dimensional war. To participate in this feast, although “Tianshi” is not yet fully equipped with the best conditions, the industrial layout is urgent and cannot be lost. The status quo of "Tian Shi" determines that the development rhythm of post-market projects must be coordinated with the market, otherwise it is likely to face failure.

- sect insights -

Auto parts manufacturing enterprises - auto parts manufacturers are the big business in the trillion dollar market in the world. The latest data of the global top 100 parts list shows that there are five companies in China, which is also the best in history. The best ranking is the first. 14 people. At the same time, from the perspective of market share, the Chinese market accounts for 40% of the global market share, which also shows the importance of the Chinese market. However, the disadvantages of Chinese companies are also obvious, as the product form is still dominated by OEM or low-end products.

Auto parts manufacturers face a typical global war, and many of their competitors are 100-year-old companies. Therefore, the large-scale development of China's automobile industry also relies on researchers to make more breakthroughs in raw materials and sophisticated technology. The integration of this martial art is a typical integration of heavy capital and heavy technology through continuous innovation.

Auto Parts Supply Chain Enterprise - This martial art includes auto parts dealers in auto parts distribution and auto parts dealers in various types of wholesalers and retailers, including various types of warehousing, packaging, logistics, distribution companies, and various vertical developments. Single product supply chain and auto parts chain. The author used to be an auto parts dealer who has been operating in Guangzhou for more than ten years. Finally, the auto parts dealers in this article are classified as auto parts supply chain companies. This martial art is an industrial area with relatively concentrated dispersion, chaos and difference. There are still few enterprises with real turnover of more than 1.5 billion in this kind of innovation platform, and the traditional business has reached this level of business, indicating that the model of innovation platform is still difficult to explore the breakthrough of the industry. :

Auto parts dealers will not be wiped out in the next ten years, but the market share contraction and decline is the fastest. The main bottlenecks are: the industrial barriers of authorized enterprises, the compliance of business operations and the non-cooperation and non-opening of some auto parts dealers themselves. Mentality.

The self-built full-line online and offline auto parts supply chain platform has a very low probability of success, and the vertical supply chain and supply chain integration capability of single-category categories will gradually increase, especially the vertical supply chain with upstream superior resources. The platform, because of its deep interest binding with the upstream auto parts manufacturing enterprises, has obvious market competitive advantages.

There should be no chance for a pure Internet auto parts trading platform without strong resources to endorse. This track has become a master. The threshold for forced entry will also be high. The main reason is that the advancement of Internet technology, especially cloud technology, has led to more and more IT solutions for SMEs, and the cost is getting lower and lower. However, the construction of an online platform with an all-industry pattern is still a short-term, and the main bottleneck is that the integration of high-end talents and capital in the industry has certain constraints.

The warehousing and logistics functions of the auto parts supply chain enterprises are recommended to be completed in the form of cooperation or contract. The author believes that industry people must always understand a simple truth: we are doing the automotive industry, not in the warehousing, logistics, IT and other industries, automotive-related services are the core. Self-built warehousing and logistics are not as good as taking time and energy to do customer service. Although warehousing and logistics have the uniqueness of the auto parts industry, it is a different industry from the auto industry. Enterprises with assets of more than 10 billion can try to build positions across the country, and innovate enterprises to build a large number of warehouses or build logistics. It is good luck to get investment. The author believes that it may only be a matter of time before the innovation platform takes a lot of money to invest in warehousing, inventory, logistics, or failure to be compiled.

Auto parts chain is the direction that some platforms and enterprises are working hard now, but the author believes that auto parts chain is only responsible for the transition function in the process of industrial integration, and the cycle should still be 3-5 years. After the online traffic of the auto repair enterprise reaches 80%, the main functions of the auto parts chain must be transformed into an extension of the regional service of the innovation platform. Otherwise, it is difficult to get out of the fate of the traditional auto parts dealer.

There is still a big problem in the innovation platform to operate the auto parts chain, which is to compete with the existing 400,000 traditional auto parts dealers. The author suggests that the strategic planning of innovative projects can start from the offline auto parts chain, and it is very important to establish a win-win mechanism with traditional auto parts dealers.

The circulation of auto parts products has become a trend from the marketing concept of how to sell products to the marketing concept of “product + service”.

Where does the original auto parts dealer go, the author suggests the following:

1. Adhere to sound management, abandon all non-profit projects and try to embrace quality innovation platforms in stages;

2. The expansion of scale must ensure sustainability, ensure the proportion of inventory inventory, accounts receivable and turnover is reasonable, and ensure a virtuous circle of business operations;

3. Profit diversification into projects with higher income and more reliable income outside the industry, and make more plans for the family;

4. Compliance or not is always the biggest risk of operation. All aspects of non-compliance will be managed as soon as possible. If it is necessary to adjust the business model and operating structure, it must be adjusted as soon as possible;

5. Opportunities for realizing the realization of industrial assets should be well grasped and serve the users with care;

The entry barriers for auto parts supply chain enterprises will continue to increase by tens of millions. At present, the market has not yet seen a climate and a pattern of enterprises to come out.

The counter-production of the market in the face of policy restrictions will also affect the growth and expansion of auto parts supply chain enterprises, and the impact of the formulation of relevant standards on policies will be gradually enlarged;

Once again, the auto parts dealers are asked to put down their shelves, accept innovation, and uphold the attitude of openness, cooperation and mutual benefit. The possibility of becoming a backbone of industrial change still exists.

Auto repair chain enterprises - the status quo of auto repair chain industry This article is no longer a story, just ask some old drivers, there are unpleasant experiences of repairing cars. However, as a whole, the auto repair enterprises have undergone great changes in recent years. No matter the business environment, business philosophy, regional cooperation, supply chain exploration, and team management, they are constantly making rapid progress. The reform and innovation of auto repair enterprises has always been at the forefront of auto parts supply chain enterprises. This is worthy of recognition and worth learning from auto parts supply chain practitioners.

With regard to auto repair enterprises to improve their management level, improve management quality, and improve profits, there may be numerous articles on this analysis in the future. This article will not be repeated. The author mainly discusses the perspectives of chain development:

How much can an auto repair chain do in China? This is unknown because the management super-chain has the rigid condition requirements of “time, location, and people”. Is the cost of integrating regional princes controllable? Is the risk of regional princes controllable? The management and interest distribution models of the princes still require constant exploration and experimentation.

Auto repair chain platform enterprises are basically a set of models or a set of ideas to fight the world. Nowadays, the world is the status quo of all the philosophers, and the pattern or concept of a set of models and concepts has become unacceptable in some areas. How to deal with them?

The final assets must be securitized, or combined with financial instruments such as finance and financial leasing to reflect higher value. Most of the current auto repair business operations are leased. The accumulation of asset management and business in the industrial park is the main direction of the future, but there is no good model in China. The author communicates with some real estate developers. Most of the real estate people in the industry can't find directions and act too conservatively. The author believes that real estate resources outside the industry may break through the industrial property bottleneck faster than the real estate resources in the industry, let us wait and see. Capital is always priced, and auto repair assets that cannot be priced by capital are worthless.

The future of the auto repair chain is too unknown. The author's direct feeling is that the integration of the auto repair industry may be longer than we think. The next 3-5 years should not be integrated, so it should be before 2020. The golden age of the development of princes everywhere may be the last window of the rapid development of the princes;

When developing around, the princes should remember that they should not chain for the chain. All expansion is based on the core of commercial value: profit-oriented development, and profit is more important than scale.

The whole vehicle manufacturing enterprise (hereinafter referred to as the "master factory") - the main engine factory is the core enterprise of the industrial chain, and is also the core enterprise of the auto parts supply chain, although this advantage is acquired by the auto parts of the auto parts, global car, new energy There are a lot of uncertainties in car making, but at this stage, all the changes and innovations that are going on in the Chinese automotive aftermarket, and the changing interest distribution system are all trying to break through the licensing system of the OEM. "To beat the local land," the main engine factory is the industry's largest local tyrant. The OEMs are also changing, but they are very cautious, mainly based on the consideration of short-term and long-term balance of interests, and it is the hardest to make their own lives.

The mainstream attitude of the OEM to the independent post-market is: through the original self-built after-sales system as the main force, to obtain more incremental share, the dominant idea is to defend. Most OEMs are still trying to be independent after-sales, and they can't talk about the real big-bang and open their arms. As the core enterprise of the industry, the strength and influence of the OEM is absolutely not to be underestimated. The main points are as follows:

The team that chooses the innovative project from the OEM, especially the choice of the team leader, is one of the key factors for the success of the independent aftermarket. Choosing the right leader and building a mature and reliable team is a success. basis.

The system of the main engine factory involves state-owned enterprises, central enterprises, foreign capital, military enterprises, etc. Major decisions involve the examination and approval of ministries and commissions and local government departments. How to design long-term operations for reform and innovation within the system, and the mechanism for integrating with the market is crucial.

In the process of operation, the sharing and coordination of the overall resources and innovation projects of the main engine factory is the key to ensure the successful operation of the initial stage of the project. For innovation, it must be tolerant, and we should look at the current problems with a development perspective. If the innovation sector is opposed to the traditional sector, innovative projects are difficult to develop effectively.

Innovative projects must be able to take advantage of the OEM and be in harmony with the independent market. The above two points are fundamental to the success of the independent after-sales project.

The status of independent after-sales market in China's automobile aftermarket is a foregone conclusion, and the authorized market will not disappear because of the development of independent market. At this stage, how to authorize the market to use its original market position, actively establish dialogue with independent after-sales market, create and cooperate The symbiotic situation and the common interests. If the advantage of the OEM is used to suppress the independent after-sales market, it will bring a bad experience to the owner, and ultimately the host factory itself.

- "Master" insights -

Financial institutions - No matter what stage of development in the future automotive market, capital will continue to strengthen the depth of intervention. In the end, the chain of financial flows in the industrial chain will be reduced to capital control. This need not be discussed again. The author expounds some personal feelings about capital:

Numerous cases in the automotive industry, especially in the automotive aftermarket, prove that investing in the industry to do practical things and teams is more reliable than the so-called trustworthy but unfamiliar people in the capital. I don’t understand the capital cronies of the industry. I just get the investment because of the personal relationship with the capital. I believe that there will be more industrial teams and enterprises in the industry, and they will get more capital’s favor and recognition, even though there are still industries. Many projects are purely TO capital.

The speculative capital is decreasing, the industrial capital is increasing, and it is good for the industry as a whole, which can alleviate the investment success rate caused by the ignorance of capital to the industry. However, industrial capital will have an impact on the innovation boundary of the project. The layout of industrial capital is based on its own original industry considerations and will limit the upper limit of the development of innovative projects.

The best means of integration and integration of the industry is the combination of industry and finance. Some projects may be suitable for capital-based and industry-assisted integration. Other projects are suitable for industry-based, capital-assisted integration, and pure capital or industrial integration. In fact, it is very passive and at the same time high cost. The overall integration of industry and finance is relatively efficient and low-cost, and the competitive advantage of integration will also be highlighted.

Insurance companies - mainly refers to auto insurance companies, the typical diamond king of the post-market. The amount of money spent in the post-market every year is in the hundreds of billions, especially the top three people, Ping An, and the Pacific.

Almost all insurance companies, like the OEMs, have actively established independent innovation projects in the post-market. Each insurance company has different market entry points but the same goal: reducing claims costs, reducing false claims, and improving customer satisfaction to renew.

The author's point of view on the insurance company is basically the same as that of the OEM. See the point of view of the OEM. The difference between an insurance company and a mainframe factory is that it is more open, but the cooperation threshold is higher, and there are more business requirements for connecting with the internal organization of the insurance company.

BAT - Regarding Internet companies such as BAT, the author believes that at this stage, it is mainly interested in financial flows and C-end owners, but the current stage of the industry is mainly on the B side. The layout of BAT in the post-market is not ideal, but it cannot underestimate the impact of the Internet on the industry.

Popular players - the biggest imagination space and variables in the post-market, for the following reasons:

1, C-end owners pursue personalized service;

2. The rejuvenation of the post-market group is destined to pursue a more free working space;

3, platform + personal mode has been successful in more areas such as travel;

4. The aggregation of key factors on the line and the fragmentation resources under the line may be more suitable for the future development of the industry;

5. More top talents are still in the state of Qianlong.

Editor in charge: Shi Yangyang