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The “6.30†rushing tide has brought a bright mid-year report to PV companies, but after the tide retreat, the performance in the third quarter has shrunk dramatically.
As of November 29, the major domestic and overseas PV listed companies, except Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE), have announced the third quarter results. The analysis found that the net profit of these companies fell compared with the second quarter of this year, and none of them survived, ranging from 16.6% to 292.7%.
Shipments of Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, Artes, and Sunshine Solar declined, with Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) shipments in the third quarter down 297.1 from the second quarter. MW. Yingli Green Energy released its preliminary financial results for the third quarter on November 28. The company expects component shipments in the third quarter of 2016 to be in the range of 360-370MW, which is lower than the 622MW in the second quarter.
Demand in the Chinese market has plummeted, and several component firms are seeking overseas markets. Taking JA Solar (NYSE: JASO) as an example, the company's market share in China fell from 60% in the second quarter to 30% in the third quarter.
In the fourth quarter, the photovoltaic industry is expected to usher in a weak recovery due to the plan to start bidding construction since August. Driven by the performance in the first half of the year, the annual results may also see a large increase.
PV market demand drops sharply after ebb tide
The ups and downs of the photovoltaic industry have always been dominated by policies, and the impact of this year's policies on the market is quite straightforward. This effect can be seen in the second quarter and third quarter results of this year.
In terms of shipments, the six PV companies listed in the US all declined. Yingli Green Energy expects component shipments in the third quarter of 2016 to be in the range of 360-370MW, which is lower than the 622MW in the second quarter.
Among the six companies, Jinko Energy (NYSE: JKS) led the way, with shipments of 1606MW in the third quarter, up 41.6% year-on-year and 110MW from the previous quarter. However, the decline was less than the second shipment of Trina Solar. At the same time, Jinko Energy is also the only company with a gross profit margin of over 20%. This means that Jinko Energy will replace Trina Solar as the largest component supplier in China.
Chen Keping, CEO of Jinko Energy, said in the third-quarter performance report that the total component shipments for 2016 will increase from 6.0GW to 6.5GW to 6.6GW to 6.7GW.
Trina Solar's shipments of 1361 MW in the third quarter fell by 17.9%. In this regard, Trina Solar's chairman and CEO Gao Jifan said that the third quarter results slowed as expected, due to oversupply in the market, market inventory levels increased, China's market demand weakened after the first half of the year, the final total shipments Below the guideline.
The upstream polysilicon manufacturing manufacturer Poly GCL (03800.HK) sold about 1,398 tons of polysilicon in the third quarter, down about 70% year-on-year; wafer sales were about 3,837 MW, down 4.6% year-on-year. The company said that China's domestic PV market has shrunk in the third quarter of this year. Compared with the first and second quarters of this year, demand for polysilicon and wafers declined in the third quarter.
From strong to weak, the direct cause of this market change is the “6.30†rush to install.
At the end of last year, the Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Improving the Pricing Policy for Onshore Wind Power Photovoltaic Power Generation Standards requires that the photovoltaic power generation projects that were filed before 2016 and included in the annual scale management will not be fully invested before June 30, 2016. In operation, the implementation of the 2016 benchmarking price of electricity: the ground photovoltaic power plants in the first-class and second-class resource areas are reduced by 0.1 yuan and 0.07 yuan respectively, and the three types of resource areas are reduced by 0.02 yuan.
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Kong Xiangfen analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald, saying that the policy means that the subsidies for photovoltaic power plants put into operation after June 30 this year will be reduced. As a result, developers have been rushing to pre-empt, and the demand for raw materials, components and other products has increased significantly. In the first half of the year, the annual target of the new PV power plant construction scale of 18.1 million kilowatts was completed. After the tide retreat, demand in the market declined sharply in the third quarter, causing prices to fall rapidly, such as components falling by about 30% during the year.
Yingli Green Energy also said that the average sales price of component products in the third quarter fell by 25% compared with the second quarter, compared with 27%-30% in the first nine months of this year.
The company said that the preliminary results may be further affected by the decline in gross margin in the third quarter. The company expects gross margin to be between 5% and 6%, far below the other five listed PV companies in the US. The gross margin of PV module sales is expected to be in the range of 6%-7%, which is close to the previous forecast of 12.5%-14%.
Compared with the same period of last year, the number of companies with a loss in the third quarter of this year has increased by two. Yanhui Sunshine (NYSE: SOL) lost $20.5 million (about 137 million yuan) in the third quarter, while net profit in the second quarter was $5.5 million (about 36.73 million yuan), which is the company's four consecutive quarters. The first loss after the profit. Li Xianshou, CEO of Sunshine Sunshine, attributed its failure to expectations due to weak demand and reduced shipments and price pressures in the performance report.
Aerospace Electromechanical (600151.SH) lost 2.9 million yuan in the third quarter, with a loss of 140,000 yuan in the same period last year and a profit of 50.02 million in the second quarter of this year. CICC analyzed that the main reason was the weak demand for domestic PV products in the third quarter and the company did not sell power stations during the reporting period.
Expanding the international market to curb the decline
Although the photovoltaic leading enterprises in overseas layouts cannot prevent the decline in performance, they have restrained the decline to some extent by adjusting the sales strategies in the international market.
Jingao Solar is one of the six listed companies in the United States. The third quarter revenue was the only one in the chain. The revenue of 4.2 billion yuan increased slightly by 1.2% compared with the second quarter, up 9% year-on-year. The company's chairman and CEO Qi Baofang said that due to the sharp decline in domestic market demand, the company adjusted its strategy to target sales to several more demanding international markets. From the performance report, the proportion of shipments in the Chinese market fell from 60% in the second quarter to 30%, and the South American market rose from 0% in the same period last year to 20%.
Trina Solar's report also said that India's shipments accounted for 30% of its total shipments in the third quarter.
Of the total revenue of Artes (NASDAQ: CSI), 42.7% came from Asia, 41.1% from the Americas, and 16.2% from Europe and other markets. Compared with the previous quarter and the same period last year, Artes' global performance in the third quarter of this year is more evenly distributed.
This kind of behavior of enterprises, in the view of Meng Xianyu, deputy chairman of China Renewable Energy Society and secretary general of China Solar Energy Society, is because the domestic market is not stable enough and the human factors affecting the market are large. How to find a stable fulcrum in a changing market? For enterprises, stabilizing the domestic market and exploring the international market need to be carried out simultaneously.
Meng Xianxuan told reporters in the 21st Century Economic Report that, like the photovoltaic industry, which is driven by policies rather than pure market mechanisms, the government should ensure that the market develops steadily and there should be no ups and downs.
In addition to the layout of overseas markets, component suppliers are also expanding downstream, investing in power stations and distributed, residential home roofs. Jingke Energy Photovoltaic Power Station added 184MW to 1314MW in the third quarter. Trina Solar's cumulative grid-connected power station is 1302.8MW. Gao Jifan said that he will continue to implement the strategic plan and develop the downstream business steadily.
Atus has invested 948 MW in power plant power generation, and reserves 2GW of solar projects in the later stages. The company’s chairman and CEO, Xiao Xiaoyu, said that the company’s power plant assets are distributed in the United States, Canada, Japan, Brazil, China, Mexico, the United Kingdom and Africa, and that sales of some power stations in Canada and China will be completed by the end of this year or early next year. Sales of US power stations have begun.
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Kong Xiangfen analysis said that the domestic PV power plant investment return cycle is relatively long, the initial investment is large, so in the domestic emphasis on photovoltaic environment, some powerful upstream and midstream PV companies in advance layout. These diversified companies, with upstream raw materials, midstream components and other products, are more likely to control costs by investing in power plants.
As for the fourth quarter, Soochow Securities analyzed that as August, the top runners in various regions plan to start bidding construction, and the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for the photovoltaic industry, PV demand will usher in a weak recovery.
According to the statistics of Solarzoom at the beginning of this month, in the fourth quarter, monocrystalline silicon wafers and single crystal modules have rebounded 16.33% and 6.35% respectively from the lowest point.
In the third quarter results report, GCL-Poly also said that as of the end of the third quarter of 2016, the demand for polysilicon and wafers has rebounded significantly, and prices have also rebounded significantly.
Coupled with the strong pull in the first half of this year, the annual report of PV companies in 2016 will not be ugly. Taking the single crystal silicon leading company Longji (601012.SH) as an example, the third quarter revenue and net profit decreased by 50.15% and 60.01% respectively, but the revenue and net profit of the first three quarters increased by 204.26% and 421.94 respectively. %.
PV companies rush to install after the tide, weak demand in the fourth quarter or weak recovery
Abstract As of November 29, the third-quarter performance report of major domestic and overseas PV listed companies showed that net profit fell by 16.6% to 292.7% compared with the second quarter of this year. From strong to weak, the direct cause of this market change is &ld...
As of November 29, the third-quarter performance report of major domestic and overseas PV listed companies showed that net profit fell compared with the second quarter of this year, ranging from 16.6% to 292.7%. From strong to weak, the direct cause of this market change is the “6.30†rush to install. Demand in the Chinese market has plummeted, and several component firms are seeking overseas markets. In the fourth quarter, the photovoltaic industry is expected to usher in a weak recovery due to the plan to start bidding construction since August. Driven by the performance in the first half of the year, the annual results may also see a large increase.