China's mineral demand will increase by 15 to 20 years

“At present, China’s mining industry is in a period of deep downward adjustment. The key to the recovery is the downside and the time for adjustment. The only way out is to deepen reforms, speed up structural adjustments, carry out a new round of scientific and technological innovations, and increase labor productivity to tide over the difficulties. Wang Jiahua, executive vice president of the China Association of Mining Industry, recently proposed at the 2014 China National Mining News Press Conference that the current mining situation should be correctly judged from the perspective of economic globalization.

Regarding the domestic mining situation, Wang Jiahua said that the contribution of China's mining industry to the macro-economy has not stagnated, and the demand for mineral products is still growing, but the growth rate has slowed down. “According to the statistical data in the first half of the year, 10 kinds of non-ferrous metals increased by 6.7% from the same period of last year, iron ore increased by 7% over the same period, and oil and gas increased by 1% year-on-year. Coal is the only remaining balance with last year. Iron ore imports In the first half of the year, it increased 19% year-on-year. Ten non-ferrous metals, especially copper, increased by 34% year-on-year.”

In addition, the painstaking period of structural adjustments has emerged in the mining industry: excess production of certain minerals such as coal; environmental pressures continue to increase; exploration investment decreased by 13.7%; drilling work volume decreased by 21.7% year-on-year; The company's stock value in the GEM of Toronto decreased by about 70% to 80%. **Breaked the bottleneck. The business experienced unprecedented difficulties. The price of mineral products continued to fall. China's 14 world's top 500 mining companies suffered losses.

Wang Jiahua believes that the tough period of China's mining deepening reforms has already started, and it has created a backlash mechanism. In the path of green development, scientific "going out" and establishing China's risk exploration capital market, China Mining has reached a consensus. “Mining is the orientation of the primary industry and has been recognized by the academic circles and formed a consensus in the industry. Prime Minister Li Keqiang has given instructions for the research report of the China Coal Mine.”

“The Chinese economy has the highest contribution rate to the global mining economy and has supported prosperity in the downside. Without China, iron ore prices could not be maintained at US$90/ton.” Wang Jiahua stressed that the responsibility for falling mineral prices this year is not China. “The growth rate of China’s GDP has been reduced from double-digits to 7.5%, but the absolute number is still growing, and it has little impact on the international market. However, the lack of development of emerging economies and the slow recovery of developed economies have led to an increase in global mining capacity. No more countries consume, causing the price of minerals to fall.”

How long will this round of downswing continue? Will the ten-year mining golden period be revived? In this regard, Wang Jiahua believes that the length of the downturn depends on the “fundamental aspects” of China’s mining industry and the development of other emerging economies. “As far as macroeconomics is concerned, China’s rigid demand for mineral products is still 15 to 20 years in the future. If India's GDP maintains a growth rate of 6%, after 15 years, it will enter the historical node where the mineral resources just need to grow rapidly and take over China's 'bracket', so that the price of mineral products can remain stable, otherwise, the price of mineral products will not rise much. ."