China is expected to meet its economic expectations for 2013

Abstract China National Information Center released a report in Beijing on the 2nd that the “steady growth” policy of China’s economy will gradually take effect in 2013. It is expected that GDP will increase by 7.6% and CPI will increase by 2.7%. &nbs
The China National Information Center released a report in Beijing on the 2nd that the “steady growth” policy of China’s economy will gradually take effect in 2013. It is expected that GDP will increase by 7.6% and CPI will increase by 2.7%.

In the "Green Paper on Economic Information: China and World Economic Development Report (2014)" released on the same day, China National Information Center predicts that GDP will increase by 7.6% in 2013, of which fixed assets investment will increase by 20.1%, exceeding 18%. Expected target, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 13%, lower than the expected target of 14.5%, and foreign trade exports increased by about 8%, close to the expected target.

The report pointed out that the “stable growth” policy in 2013 maintained the pertinence and stability of macroeconomic policies within a reasonable range of ensuring that the economic growth rate and employment level did not slip out of the “lower limit” and the price increase did not exceed the “cap”.

The report shows that the contribution of investment to economic growth has increased. The contribution rate to GDP in the first three quarters was 55.8%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, driving GDP growth by 4.3 percentage points. In the first three quarters, real estate investment increased by 19.7%, accelerating by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year. It is expected that real estate investment will increase by 18.5% for the whole year.

In the consumer sector, the report pointed out that the slowdown in household income and the fall in retail prices have slowed consumption growth. Under the influence of strict official consumption policy, the catering revenue growth in January-September slowed by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.5 percentage points. It is estimated that the total retail sales of consumer goods will increase by 13%, lower than the expected target of 14.5%. At the same time, due to the relatively loose currency and increased pressure on wage costs, consumer prices will rise moderately. It is expected that the annual CPI will rise by 2.7%.

In terms of foreign trade, China's foreign trade exports in the first three quarters increased by 8% year-on-year. It does not count the growth of trade exports to Hong Kong only 4.6%. In the third quarter, the export growth rate rebounded to 8.5%. It is estimated that the annual foreign trade exports will grow by 8%, close to the expected target. Imports will increase by 7.5%, and the trade surplus will be US$258.5 billion, up 11.9%.

The report emphasizes that the new government's reform measures focusing on economic quality, accelerating structural adjustment, and enhancing economic vitality and motivation have achieved positive results. The service industry, emerging industries and private economy have become the highlights of the economic development throughout the year.

In the first three quarters, the tertiary industry grew by 8.4%, accounting for 45.5% of GDP, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. In the first half of the year, information consumption was 2.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, and e-commerce transactions amounted to 4.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. In the first three quarters, the investment share of private enterprises in infrastructure construction was close to 25%, with a growth rate of 35.6%.

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