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According to the weekly price forecast model of the Information Research Center, this week (2013.12.2-12.6), the domestic steel market price will maintain slight fluctuations, the market price of long products will decline slightly, and the plate market price will stabilize steadily. The national steel price index is expected to fluctuate around 138.7 points. The average price of steel is around 3610 yuan, and the average price fluctuates around 20 yuan. Among them, the long steel price index is expected to fluctuate around 156.1 points, and the small fluctuations will decline by about 0.3 points; the sheet price index is expected to It fluctuates around 117.5 points and fluctuates around 0.1 point.
According to the market research data of the Information Research Center, domestic long products market prices will decline slightly this week (2013.12.2-12.6). The plate market price will stabilize steadily; the raw material market price will fluctuate slightly, and the iron ore market price will fluctuate slightly. The coke market price will rise slightly, the scrap market price will remain stable, and the billet market price will decline slightly.
1. Domestic steel market fluctuates slightly this week. Week 48 of 2013 (2013.11.25-11.29) The national comprehensive steel price index reached 138.7 points, up 0.02% from the previous week and 5.31% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long products price index was 156.4 points, up 0.12% from the previous week, and down 2.33% from the same period of last year; the LGMI sheet price index was 117.4 points, down 0.14% from last week and down 9.71% from the same period of last year. 1).
According to the market research conducted by the Information Research Center, in the 48th week of 2013, the prices of iron and steel raw fuel and steel products in some regions were measured in 17 categories and 44 specifications (varieties): The market price of major steel products fluctuates slightly compared to last week. The rising varieties have slightly decreased, the flat varieties have increased slightly, and the falling varieties have remained basically unchanged. Of these, five species rose, down 4 from the previous week; 23 were flat and 4 more than last week; 16 varieties fell, unchanged from last week. The price of domestic steel raw materials market has been steadily increasing, the market price of iron ore has been steadily increasing, and the market prices of coke, scrap and billets have remained stable.
2. This week, the steel market oscillated upwards. The 48th week of 2013 (2013.11.25-11.29) The performance of the main contract 1405 in the rebar market has improved. This week's closing price rose 56 points from last week. This week, the main force is 1405, with 152.3 million hands, minus 48,310 hands, and most of the reductions in positions are also short.
3. This week, the nation's steel stocks have been continuously declining. At present, the nation's steel stocks have declined for seven consecutive weeks. The declines in building materials and sheet stocks have all slowed slightly. According to the market research conducted by the Information Research Center, on November 29, steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country were 12,44.71 million tons, a decrease of 98,700 tons, or 0.79%, from the previous week, a slight slowdown from the previous week's decline rate of 0.15. Percentage. In terms of sub-categories, the country’s wire rod social inventories were 1,050,400 tons, which was 0.95% lower than last week, a 1.36 percentage point slower than last week's decline rate, a decrease of 9.64% from the previous month and an increase of 3.94% from the same period of last year. Rebar social inventory was 4,504,700 tons, down 0.90% from last week, a slight slowdown of 0.19 percentage points from the previous week's decline rate, down 6.88% from the previous month, an increase of 0.79% over the same period last year; The amount was 316,800 tons, a decrease of 4.54% from the previous week, and it changed from a rise of last week to a decrease, which was a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month and an increase of 23.56% from the same period of last year; the social volume of hot coiled coils was 3.6516 million tons. Weekly decrease of 0.06%, a slight slowdown of 0.84 percentage points from the previous week's decline rate, down 2.67% from the previous month, an increase of 15.23% over the same period last year; cold rolled coil social inventory of 15.459 million tons, down 0.95 from last week %, from last week’s rise to decline, down by 3.07% from last month and 0.1% from the same period of last year; plate stock in society was 1,377,800 tons, down 1.15% from last week, slightly lower than last week’s decline rate. There was a slowdown of 0.08 percentage points, a decrease of 6.89% from the previous month, compared with the same It rose 2.57%.
4. Focus on market factors this week Macroeconomics:
[Industrial Profit] From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 13.7% year-on-year to RMB 4,626.3 billion.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 4,626.32 billion yuan, an increase of 13.7% over the same period of last year. The growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the first nine months of the year, of which the main activity profit was 46884.2. Billion yuan, an increase of 5.4% over the same period of last year, was an increase of 0.1% from January to September. From January to October, in 41 industrial sectors, the profits of main activities of 26 industries increased compared with the same period of last year. The profits of main activities of 13 industries decreased compared with the same period of last year. The losses of main industries of the two industries changed from the same period of last year. profit. In October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 581.04 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1% over the same period of last year. The growth rate was 3.3 percentage points lower than that in September, of which, the main activity profit was 566.9 billion yuan, an increase of 6% over the same period of last year. It dropped by 1.5 percentage points from September.
Industry News:
[Steel profit] From January to September, the iron and steel industry realized profits of 127 billion yuan, up 39.9% year-on-year
According to statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission, from January to September, the iron and steel industry realized a profit of 127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.9%. Among them, the profit of the ferrous metal mining industry was 64.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1%; the profits of the iron and steel smelting and processing industries were 52.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8 times.
[Steel profit] In October, large and medium-sized steel enterprises realized a total profit of 1.716 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.46%
According to the China Iron and Steel Association statistics show that in October, and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises realized sales income of 309.144 billion yuan, growth of 0.96%; to achieve profits of 8.075 billion yuan, down 20.17%; total profit of 1.716 billion yuan, down 47.46% 18 loss-making enterprises, an increase of 4 households, the loss reached 20.93%; losses amounted to 1.123 billion yuan, a loss of 19.60%.
From January to October, large and medium-sized steel companies realized a total sales revenue of 308.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.25%; realized profits and taxes of 77.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.70%; and realized a total profit of 12.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year turnaround; the cumulative loss was 27, The year-on-year decrease of 6 households resulted in a 31.40% loss; the cumulative loss was 12.169 billion yuan, which represented a 58.68% year-on-year decrease; and the sales margin was 0.43%, a year-on-year increase of 0.57 percentage points.
At the end of October, the net receivables of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises were 112.778 billion yuan, an increase of 1.13 billion yuan month-on-month and an increase of 0.10% from the previous quarter; the net payables amounted to 420.176 billion yuan, an increase of 7.862 billion yuan month-on-month, an increase of 1.91%; The finished products used 1813.19 billion yuan of funds, a decrease of 2.012 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous quarter.
[Rough steel production for ten days] In mid-November, the daily output of crude steel was 2.319 million tons decreased by 0.57%
According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid-November, the daily output of crude steel of key enterprises was 1.75 million tons, a decrease of 12300 tons, and a contraction of 0.7% from the end of the month; the national average production of crude steel was 2,131,900 tons, a decrease of 12,300 tons. It decreased by 0.57% from the previous quarter. In mid-November, the value of crude steel production of non-key enterprises was 382,000 tons, which remained unchanged from the previous period, accounting for 17.9%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month. In mid-November, the key statistics of iron and steel enterprise stocks at the end of the third quarter was 13.934 million tons, an increase of 1.008 million tons from the end of the previous period, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.
Downstream demand:
[Ship] China Shipbuilding completed 34.8 million dwt in January-October, down 25.4% year-on-year
According to the statistics from the China Shipbuilding Association, from January to October, the country's shipbuilding completed 34.8 million dwt, a year-on-year decrease of 25.4%; the number of orders for new ships was 46.44 million dwt, an increase of 183% year-on-year; at the end of October, the ship’s orders were 1.1787 billion dwt. , an increase of 1.1% year-on-year, an increase of 10.2% from the end of 2012.
In January-October, the number of completed export ships was 29.3 million dwt, down 24.5% year-on-year; orders for export vessels were 43 million dwt, an increase of 228% year-on-year; at the end of October, orders for hand-held export vessels were 1.0313 billion dwt, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Export ships accounted for 84.2%, 92.6% and 87.5% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders received, and hand-held orders, respectively.
[Mechanical] In October, the national sales volume of the internal combustion engine increased by 5.42% year-on-year to 4.967 million units.
According to statistics from the Internal Combustion Engines Association, in October, the country completed sales of 4,967,400 internal combustion engines and completed a total of 51,202,100 units, an increase of 5.42% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.27%, and an increase of 6.20% year-on-year. The completed power was 16978.78 kilowatts, and a total of 156,472,380 kilowatts was completed. In October, the auto and motorcycle market had a certain rational return compared with September, which was a 3% drop from the previous month and had a greater impact on the decline in the overall market of the internal combustion engine industry.
In terms of the supporting market for internal combustion engines, in October, the sales volume of passenger vehicle internal combustion engines was 1,346,700 units, cumulative sales volume was 12,885,800 units, a decrease of 3.02% compared with the previous period; commercial vehicle sales of diesel engines were 351,900 units, and cumulative sales volume was 3,295,500 units, an increase of 5.20 times month-on-month. %; construction machinery with internal combustion engines sales of 51,500 units, total sales of 557,800 units, growth of 6.46%; agricultural machinery with internal combustion engines sales of 509,100 units, total sales of 5.482 million units, a decline of 3.35%; marine engine sales of 04,600 units, total sales of 43,600 units, growth of 11.05%; generating units with internal combustion engines sales of 217,000 units, total sales of 2,758,400 units, down 16.48 percent; garden machinery with internal combustion engines sales of 243,000 units, total sales of 3,008,600 units, growth of 8.84%; The sales volume of motorcycle internal combustion engines was 2,218,200 units, and the cumulative sales volume was 22,670,600 units, a decrease of 7.47% compared with the previous period; the total sales of internal combustion engines were 43,700 units, with a cumulative sales volume of 512,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 63.99%.
Production cuts support the narrow fluctuations in the steel market
At present, the macroeconomic situation is stable and the output of steel mills has declined. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel of key enterprises in mid-November was 1.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous month; the national average production of crude steel was 2,131,900 tons. , MoM fell 0.57%, while the steel market has entered the off-season, and the market demand is gradually reduced. It is expected that the domestic steel market will continue to fluctuate this week (2013.12.2-12.6).