Fourth quarter steel market or weak first

According to the latest data from the China Steel Association, in the first half of September, the daily output of crude steel of key enterprises was 1.762 million tons, up by 1.29% from the previous month; the national average production of crude steel was estimated at 2.219945 million tons, up by 0.48% from the previous month, still at a high level. At the same time, the statistics show that the key statistics for iron and steel enterprises at the end of September were 12.595 million tons at the end of September, an increase of 144,000 tons from the end of the previous ten-day period, and a year-on-year increase of 1.16%.

"Jin 9" is completely defeated

The high demand for the “Golden Nine” steel market, which was once highly hoped for by the market, has been lost. Analyst Hu Yanping told reporters that the steel market has continued to fall since September, Beijing's tertiary rebar dropped from 3570 yuan/ton to 3400 yuan/ton, and Shanghai enthusiasm dropped from 3640 yuan/ton to 3530 yuan/ton, the market expected The "Kinjiu" demand season was completely frustrated. Affected by this, terminal procurement adopts the "on-demand" purchase strategy under the inertial thinking of "buy up, not buy or fall", and the trading volume of the steel market has dropped significantly.

Estimated data show that as of the week of September 13, steel social inventory was 14.438 million tons, a rise of 27700 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.19%. Prior to this, since the high of 22.51 million tons in late March, steel stocks have fallen for 25 weeks, with a cumulative decrease of 35.95%. After the destocking process lasted for half a year, the industry entered the traditional peak season for consumption in September. However, the social steel stocks of the steel industry have suddenly stopped rising and rebounding, reflecting that the consumption of “Jinjiu” was less than expected, and it has a certain impact on market confidence.

Analyst Meng Chengxiang believes that the expected fall in demand, coupled with the continued fall in the spot steel prices, the market price of some varieties of steel once again showed a certain degree of inversion, steel traders suffered losses, resulting in reduction of steel mills agreed resources to get goods. This can be well verified by adding 30 yuan/ton to the previous policy, which was attached to the price policy of Shagang and other steel mills in mid-September. Judging from the current changes in the downstream industries, it is unlikely that the demand for steel products will be released in September. Even if the steel mills do not increase production, the internal stocks of steel enterprises will continue to increase for some time in the future.

For steel production, Meng Chengxiang believes that the recent steel mill production will continue to maintain a relatively stable pattern. Although “Jin 9” failed, the market still has certain expectations for “Yin Shi”, and the enthusiasm of the latter steel mill production remains relatively high. , Market supply pressure may also gradually rise.

Hu Yanping said that recently the earnings of the steel mills have once again weakened, and it is estimated that the steel production in October will be affected to a certain extent and may decline slightly.

Fourth quarter or weak first

For the fourth quarter of the steel market, Meng Chengxiang analyzed the supply, demand and raw material costs in three aspects and considered that it would be a high-probability event that the operation of “weak, strong, and narrow” was present.

First of all, the steel production enthusiasm continues unabated, and the conflict between steel supply and demand is weak. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to August 2013, the country’s crude steel production was 522 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Among them, the crude steel production in August was 62.28 million tons, with an average daily output of 2.13 million tons, which rose again after three months, reflecting the increase in steel production enthusiasm. Although the steel production volume has remained at a high level, China’s steel social inventories are much lower than the same period of last year. New projects are still in the late stage, and various steady growth measures are still being implemented. Steel demand is generally stable and supply pressure is not stable. Big.

Secondly, from the perspective of the downstream industries, although the industries such as shipbuilding and household appliances are still relatively sluggish, the investment in railway construction has accelerated, and the automobile/machinery manufacturing industry has been very bright. In addition, the transformation of shanty towns has been accelerated and the investment in urban infrastructure has been strengthened. Still relatively stable.

Again, the prices of raw materials such as imported ore will continue to fall. The global iron ore supply growth rate is significantly stronger than the growth rate of iron ore consumption in China. According to statistics, the output of new iron ore from major overseas mines this year is around 60 million tons, and supply pressure will increase significantly in the later period. On the other hand, China's environmental governance has become increasingly stringent. High-pollution industries such as steel have been forced to put forward detailed management requirements. Although the steel production enthusiasm has not diminished, if the policy is strictly enforced, domestic steel companies will demand iron ore later. It will definitely decline. Therefore, the prices of major raw materials such as imported mines during the year have a large downside.

Hu Yanping also said that the steel market will be weak and strong in the fourth quarter. In October, the market will continue to operate weakly. The main reason is that demand is difficult to send high hopes, output is at a high level, supply pressure remains, upstream supply of raw materials, especially iron ore, has increased, and the spread between iron ore and steel prices is still relatively large. Iron ore still has room to make up for losses, which in turn affects steel prices. In November and December, steel prices should stabilize and pick up. The reason is that the market is hopeful for the spring market and there will be a wave of restocking. In addition, the cumulative adjustment time and margins of the market from August to October are both considerable and there is a rebound. Demand; From the previous year's prices, the steel prices rose at the end of the year.