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In June, the province’s electricity consumption was negative, and economic growth was slowing down.
A power executive in a major province recently ruled two people. In the past, when the newspaper called the power-related figures, he was very polite to introduce them one by one. However, when he consulted the Japanese newspaper on July 9, he said that he was very embarrassed. "The numbers are not coming out, there is nothing to say." The reporter learned that the emotional change of this person, or because of the negative growth in electricity consumption in the region in June, this situation still exists in three provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. According to the local energy regulation department's electric power report, the national social electricity growth rate in June was about 4%, still in the low-speed range, even lower than the national electricity consumption of 5% in May. A middle-level official of the China Electricity Council told this newspaper that the last social use in the above four provinces is not negative, but it will take a few days (final data comes out), but the current national electricity demand is indeed not high, which is certain. The national energy and macro authorities have recently held analysis meetings. The preliminary conclusion is that the downward pressure on the economy is increasing and the effective market demand is insufficient. However, some experts believe that it is unlikely that the state will change its regulatory policies. Bank of Communications analyst Tang Jianwei told this newspaper that from the current situation, the economic growth rate in the second quarter may fall to the annual target of 7.5%, while the economy in the first half of the year is likely to be lower than 8%, and the annual economic growth rate is expected to be 8 About %, you can complete the expected goal. Tang believes that "the key is to do structural reform measures, because the bank's funds are still a lot, and the loan can't be loaned out." From July 6th to 8th, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council came to Jiangsu Province to investigate and mention that China is currently The economic operation is generally stable, but the downward pressure is still relatively large. It is necessary to further increase the intensity of pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, adhere to the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy, and pay special attention to improving the structural tax reduction policy and continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. In June, the reporters with low power demand were informed that the three regions with negative growth in electricity consumption in China, namely Hubei, Jiangxi and Shanghai, have become positive in June. But this does not mean that the current electricity situation in the country is improving. According to the current electric energy report of the local energy regulation department, the total electricity consumption in Zhejiang, Jilin, Henan, and Yunnan was negative in June. This has made power people in some places confused, but the negative growth of power is caused by the economy, or because of the cool weather this year. It is still being analyzed. According to the June Express, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society is about 4%, which is lower than the growth rate of about 5% of the total social electricity consumption officially announced in May. However, when the newspaper verified this, the above-mentioned middle-level officials of the China Electricity Council said that 4% and the negative growth of power in various places have yet to be confirmed. However, the economic downturn is certain. Director of the Energy Research Center of Xiamen University Lin Bo bluntly, the above-mentioned provinces total electricity consumption growth rate if indeed slowing down, "explained their GDP is relatively weak, there is another factor is relatively large base of GDP last year, electricity consumption base It is also relatively large, so this year's power consumption growth will not go up." In the face of change, the competent authorities are also thinking about countermeasures. The National Energy Administration recently held a number of provincial and municipal energy situation analysis meetings. According to the newspaper's query on the website of the local energy bureau, the domestic economic situation has generally declined due to the global economic pessimism and other factors. The economic growth of all regions has generally slowed down, and the pressure for steady growth has further increased. In the next stage, as the effects of various measures of “steady growth†of the country gradually emerged, and the peak of energy consumption during the peak summer season, energy demand may “steadily rise†with the change of economic situation, but it is uncertain. There are also many factors, and it is necessary to strengthen the judgment. Focusing on transformation and upgrading According to the reporter's understanding, in the recent economic analysis meeting of the National Energy Administration, the Development and Reform Commission Operation Bureau and the Comprehensive Department, many places have suggested that the country adopt a more accommodative monetary and fiscal policy. The person in charge of the comprehensive department of the National Development and Reform Commission said that on the basis of in-depth research, it will make a more accurate judgment on the current situation and provide decision-making basis for the next macroeconomic regulation and control. However, some industry insiders believe that it is unlikely to implement greater relaxation. The reason is that this will seriously affect the transformation of the way the economy develops. The reporter was informed that the current economic growth of the western provinces and cities is not slow in all provinces. For example, the Sichuan Economic Information Center predicts that the economic growth rate will be above 13% in the first half of the year. The economic growth rate in some of these areas is even contradictory to the country's total energy control. For example, according to Sichuan's current economic growth rate, it is difficult to achieve energy conservation goals if it is to implement a five-year doubling plan proposed by several provinces in the west. According to the information of the party congresses in various localities, except for a few areas such as Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Henan, which have not explicitly raised the five-year GDP (regional GDP), the remaining 20 provinces and cities have clearly emphasized that the five-year economy has doubled. The proposed goal also proposes "12% of the five-year average annual target, plus a price increase of around 3%", suggesting that the actual economic growth rate is above 15% per year. To this end, Yang Fuqiang, an adviser to the US Natural Resources Defense Council, believes that the economic growth rate planned by various regions is too high. "The result is that the total energy control cannot be broken down, or the economic growth rate of each locality needs to be adjusted up and down on the current basis." The national “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†proposes that the energy consumption per unit of GDP will fall by 16%, the corresponding GDP growth rate will be about 8%, and the total national energy consumption will be 4 billion tons of standard coal. Even if renewable energy is not considered, the final total will also be As for the 4.3 billion tons of standard coal, the total amount of energy corresponding to the planned economic growth rate has reached 5 billion tons of standard coal. Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Research Center of Xiamen University, also believes that the current local practices are very contradictory. When the economic growth rate declines and the demand for power and energy decreases, many places have put forward the idea of ​​ensuring stable and rapid growth of the energy industry and accelerating market promotion. However, if the growth rate is pushed up, the energy conservation assessment indicators will not be completed. "With the downward pressure on the economy and the insufficient effective demand in the energy market, the energy industry should be put aside and focus on transformation and upgrading." Lin said. The economic growth rate has gradually entered the eight-era era. The entire Chinese economy has entered the 8% medium-speed growth stage and seems to be becoming a trend. Not long ago, according to the forecast of Bank of Communications and Renmin University, the economic growth rate in the second quarter will be less than 8%. The Bank of Communications even predicts that the economic growth rate in the second quarter may be around 7.5% of the annual target, so that the economic growth rate in the first half of the year will be less than 8%. Even if it improves in the second half of the year, it will be only about 8% for the whole year. According to the reporter's analysis, China's average economic growth rate in the past 30 years is about 9.8%, and the economy is below 8%. Only in a few years, such as 1989 and 1998. At present, the economic growth rate has declined for eight consecutive quarters. People's University and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences have judged that, given the rapid growth that China's resources and environment can support, the potential growth rate of China's economy will enter medium or sub-high speed. Growth stage. In response to this downward trend, Shen Lisheng, an expert on the number of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, thinks it is very good. Because the current economic growth rate is around 8%, and the price is around 3%, it is a perfect combination. According to this, the Chinese economy can still double in about 7 years, so that it can be quadrupled in 15 years. Shen said that the Chinese economy cannot be too fast because the rapid economic growth will inevitably raise prices. At present, the economic growth rate is even at 8%, and the price is around 3%. This is only 3% of the growth of the US economy. The price is less than 2%, which is not the same. “The key is that high growth should be achieved with low inflation. This is the high-quality scientific growth.†Shen said. In the long run, the overall national conditions are also changing. Previously, the number of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimated that due to the end of the demographic dividend, China's potential annual economic growth rate will be about 2.2 percentage points lower than in the past from 2021 to 2025. In the next 40 years, from 2011 to 2050, the aging population factor can reduce the potential annual economic growth rate of China by about 1.7 percentage points.