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In August, the electricity consumption was greatly “downshiftedâ€.
As the "outpost" of the national economy, the latest "military situation" reported in August of electricity consumption released yesterday - China's economic growth rate showed signs of slowing down. According to the latest data released by the National Energy Administration yesterday, the total electricity consumption in August was 434.3 billion kWh, which was almost the same as the data of 434.9 billion kWh in July, but the year-on-year growth rate fell sharply, from 11.8% in July to 8 This month's 9.1%, this is the first time this year, the indicator has fallen below 10%. Another evidence of the slowdown in China's economic growth is that the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the added value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 13.5% in August, down 0.5 percentage points from July. Experts interviewed by the "Daily Economic News" reporter believe that China's economic growth may fall slightly in the second half of the year. The decline in electricity consumption growth in many places According to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, the growth rate of electricity consumption in many provinces in China has dropped significantly. Taking Hunan Province as an example, in August this year, the primary, secondary and tertiary industries and residential electricity consumption increased by only -3.85%, 0.74%, 6.72% and 2.83%, respectively, which were -0.3% lower than the growth rates in July and June, respectively. 7.6, 16.9, 8.5 and 21.1, 13.1, 19, 17.9 percentage points. In the first eight months, except for Zhuzhou and Huaihua, the growth rate of electricity consumption in most cities and states in Hunan Province slowed down from January to July. This situation has also occurred in Jiangsu Province, an economically developed region in the east: the growth rate of electricity consumption in August was less than 4%, while in July it was 10.85%, a sharp drop of nearly 7 percentage points. For the reasons of this kind of situation, Jiang Kezhen, a researcher at the Energy Development Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that in addition to the reasons for economic growth itself, there are other influencing factors. “In fact, some companies have predicted that there will be a power gap in the peak summer electricity consumption, so they may try to avoid this time in production.†Statistics show that industrial electricity consumption in March was 310.6 billion kWh, year-on-year. The increase fell from 11.82% in July to 9.3%. From January to August, China's industrial electricity consumption increased by nearly 12% year-on-year, while the industrial added value of above-scale industries increased by more than 14%. The growth rate of industrial electricity is lower than the growth rate of industrial added value, which shows that the energy intensity of the industry has decreased, which also shows that China's energy conservation and emission reduction has achieved further results. Jiang Kejun also said that some places have had to adopt some measures to limit the development of high-energy-consuming enterprises, especially in the developed areas of the east. The development of high-energy-consuming enterprises in these areas has reached a certain peak, which also reduces electricity consumption to some extent. the amount. “However, this is an opportunity for economically developed provinces to adjust their industrial structure very well, especially during the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, they should focus on developing new industries to reduce energy consumption.†Economic growth or gradual slowdown with analysts It is believed that the decline in industrial power consumption reflects the current signs of slowing economic growth in China, and economic growth will fall slightly in the second half of the year. Some people even assert that the Chinese economy has fallen into stagflation and will continue for at least a year or two. However, Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, believes that it is not directly inferred from the electricity consumption data that the economic growth rate is slowing down. "Although the growth rate has decreased, it is still growing. We need to focus on analyzing the reasons behind the data, which will lead to a slowdown in electricity consumption. In particular, we must analyze the specific electricity consumption of these industries." Xiaolei pointed out that if the electricity consumption of high-energy-consuming enterprises is reduced, then it is not a bad thing. At this time, we also need to adjust the economic structure and energy structure. Even if the economic growth slows down, the magnitude may not be great. Some experts said that from the production point of view, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index showed a pick-up trend in August, indicating that the future production situation is good. At the same time, the possibility of a sharp decline in exports is also relatively small, and the actual growth of consumption will also stabilize, so China's economy will enter a period of steady recovery.