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At the time of the withdrawal of monetary policy, fiscal stimulus will also end this year. At present, it seems that the role of the budget in driving the economy has returned to normal or more. The Ministry of Finance has no longer used fiscal means to stimulate the economy, and China’s economic stimulus era has ended.
It is reported that the management requires commercial banks to strictly control the credit to local financing platforms, which may indicate that a considerable number of investment projects secured by local finances are difficult to launch as scheduled. A considerable portion of the 4 trillion yuan of investment that stimulated the economy in 2009 came from local governments.
Wang Zhihao, research director of Standard Chartered Bank Greater China, said that although the tax revenue growth has fully recovered and the central government has a treasury fund of 2.2 trillion yuan, China’s fiscal stimulus measures are now basically over. It seems that the budget is driving the economy. The role has been more or less normal, and the government is no longer using fiscal means to stimulate the economy. This round of fiscal stimulus was launched in the second half of 2008 and reached a considerable scale in the first half of 2009. China’s fiscal stimulus is more like a submachine gun, and the government has suddenly used all the stimulating means that can be thought of. A large number of infrastructure investment projects were approved for construction, and huge amounts of bank credit flooded into the economy. The real estate industry was boosted by strong credit and tax incentives. The central government has a lot of money. For the time being, these stimulating actions have slowed down.
Macroeconomic regulation and control faces a "difficult" test 2010 is a crucial year to continue to cope with the impact of the international financial crisis, maintain stable and rapid economic development, and accelerate the transformation of economic development. How to do a good job in economic and social development throughout the year is an important part of the forthcoming discussion at the National People's Congress.
Starting from the 25th of this month, China's large and medium-sized financial institutions will raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points again, which is the second increase in more than a month. The use of this measure is a flexible move of monetary policy to cope with the new situation. It also highlights the dilemma facing the current regulation: on the one hand, we must continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and on the other hand, we must constantly fine-tune the policy according to the development of the situation. .
"If the loan is not properly contracted, the pressure of future price increases will further increase; if the contraction rhythm is not well grasped, it may bring the risk of corporate financing and economic downturn. While suppressing excess liquidity, try not to bring economic development to the forefront. Negative impact, this is a huge test for monetary policy decisions," said Li Daokui, director of the China and World Economic Research Center at Tsinghua University.
In fact, not only monetary policy, but also the entire macroeconomic regulation and control of China will face a dilemma. As far as the economic stimulus package is concerned, premature exit may result in the abandonment of the former efforts and even reverse the situation. Without proper adjustment after the economic recovery, it may aggravate the original contradictions such as overcapacity and redundant construction, and increase inflationary pressures. New question. Based on this, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to deal with the relationship between maintaining growth, adjusting structure, and managing inflation expectations. On the one hand, it will continue to maintain steady and rapid economic growth, and at the same time accelerate the transformation of development mode, optimize economic structure, and improve development quality. There is no doubt that the macroeconomic regulation and control situation in 2010 will be more complicated.
"The adjustment of China's economy in 2010 has not only the structural adjustment of economic development, but also the adjustment of the economic stimulus plan. It is full of variables," said Tang Min, deputy secretary-general of the China Development Research Foundation.
World Bank: Economic growth may slow down in the second half. However, the World Bank’s 2010 Global Economic Outlook report said that the global economy is recovering. However, the recovery is weak, and it is likely that the impact of fiscal and monetary measures will weaken and current investment. At the end of the cycle, it slowed down in the second half of 2010. In fact, industrial production has begun to show signs of slowing down. Although the baseline scenario shows that global growth will decline by 2.2% in 2009, by 2.7% in 2010 and 3.2% in 2011, it cannot exclude the double-down scenario of a slight slowdown in 2011, nor can it rule out the recovery. The possibility of enhancement.
Lin Yifu, chief economist of the World Bank, said on the 24th that the foundation for global recovery is still weak, and many economies need to maintain fiscal stimulus. World Trade Organization Director-General Lamy also said that world trade fell by 12% last year due to the economic crisis, the biggest drop since 1945.
China's monetary policy begins to withdraw from the era of economic stimulus may end
In response to a series of risks arising from local government financing platform project loans, the CBRC has required commercial banks to resolutely implement the “three investigations†of loans and stop new credits for projects that have no capital and only rely on financial guarantees. This may indicate that a considerable number of investment projects secured by local finances are difficult to launch as scheduled, indicating that fiscal stimulus policies have “exit†signs.