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The world's industrial transfer is mainly cost transfer. China has a cost advantage. China's economy is carrying out industrial transfer and capital transfer in the global economic layout. The transformation of the global economic center from Europe and the United States to the ternary transformation has brought revolutionary changes to China's economy, and perhaps a global economic revolution with China as its main role. The world's machine tool manufacturing is not only civilian, but the privatization of the global military market is unavoidable. To study the global share of the weapons and military markets in the world, the products with extremely high added value are now ruled by the United States, Europe, and Russia. In particular, the United States borrows our money to engage in US defense research and development. We must promote the new upgrade of our industry by means of equity, production process and technology cooperation.
Delegates, invited by the General Assembly, let me talk about this year and the macroeconomic situation and policies of the 12th Five-Year Plan. I mainly talk about five questions for your reference.
I. Understanding of the international economic situation during 2010 and December. In combination with the development of the machine tool industry, changes in domestic and international demand, it is necessary to study the short-term, medium- and long-term development of the industry.
Second, the second half of 2008 and 2009 were the time when the global financial crisis expanded and spread, which was a very difficult time. The situation in 2010 is more complicated. How will the policy be introduced during the entire 12th Five-Year Plan period?
3. Has the domestic economy gone in the direction of the decline since last year? Is it up? Downstream? Is it entering the upswing cycle or is it a rebound in the decline?
4. The direction and characteristics of macroeconomic policies in the overall economic rise in 2010 and in the next few years.
5. In combination with the machine tool industry and the 12.5 plan, there will be big changes. There are major changes in the manufacturing field that need to be closely watched. Talk about personal ideas. I only talk about macros, not specializing in the environment, speaking about the environment. Great climate.
First, how is the global economic situation going?
There are two views, one is that the developed economies in developed countries, including the US and Europe, have not completed the financial crisis. According to a recent research report provided by the World Economic Forum, the crisis is not over, and it is necessary to guard against the second-step economic crisis, and it is considered to be a problem within the developed countries. This statement has been disclosed by various media and is the main view. Another view is that the important reason why the crisis has not ended is that the bubble caused by the proliferation of financial derivatives from developed countries has just melted into developing countries and developing economies, and the problems of developing countries will continue to be exposed one by one. Come out, so I think that Europe and the United States do not represent the entire world economy, because there are still many difficulties in the relatively small economies such as debt crisis and unemployment. The sound of these two views is still very big. My idea is that these two views are factual and well-founded, but it does not see the mainstream. It is not seen that after China's accession to the WTO, emerging economies have become the driving force and evolution of the global economy.
I believe that the economy will see a full and comprehensive recovery in 2010. The reason for this optimistic judgment is supported by the global macroeconomic status and microeconomic data.
The global economy is divided into several categories, first of all resource economies. Such as Australia, Brazil, India, Russia, the Middle East and other economies dominated by oil, ore, non-ferrous metals and other raw materials. Australia's economy grew in the fourth quarter of last year, Brazil and Russia were later, and Russia's industrial economy improved after October. The export volume, export value and export efficiency of oil and natural gas are all improving. Although there are events in the Middle East that have attracted public attention from Dubai media, I believe that as long as the oil is around 75-80 US dollars or more, the self-protection and upgrading ability of the entire Middle East is still strong. Dubai does not have a lot of oil in its place. The proportion of the economy is not very large, and only 25.6 billion of the 90 billion debts are to be repaid. The key is the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iran in the Middle East. The oil is between 75% and 80%, and the trade and fiscal revenues are indeed very good.
The Indian economy is similar to China's four quarters last year and has been playing against China. India is not only a new economy, but other aspects are also developing. This is a resource economy.
Followed by three sectors of developed countries in Europe, the United States and Japan. The three sectors account for a very large proportion of the world's 55 trillion total GDP. The United States itself is 15 trillion. Observing the Nordic and Japanese economies, the total GDP of the United States has increased in the third quarter, which is the first quarter of positive growth after the negative growth in the first half of last year. We are concerned about whether it is growing in the first quarter and second quarter of this year. My views and reasons are:
(1) Look at the US economy: The company has already lived and started to make a profit. Orders and capital flow account recovery are improving in the automotive industry.
(2) The recovery of production activities in the United States and the acceleration of innovation. For example, automobiles, new energy, and biopharmaceuticals are all improving. I noticed that the productivity of their industry is improving. The productivity in the third quarter of October last year was about 8%. This is very important. Seeing that the US economy cannot be like China, it only depends on investment, consumption, and industrial added value. The key is whether his productivity has increased. Productivity improvement is a very important sign.
3) The United States mainly experienced export growth before November 2009, and imports began to increase substantially in November, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Explain that the demand for US imports of imported goods has increased, indicating that income has improved. Although the unemployment rate is still high, labor income is not much, but wealth income increases. For example, the stock market, the Dow Jones index rose from 6,500 points to 10,800 points in March. The United States, whether it is a state institution or a family, holds a large number of property rights benefits such as bonds and stocks.
(4) In the United States, new indicators such as the Purchasing Managers Index (PRR) are mostly based on manufacturing, and the United States has reached 55.9%. Below 50 is a downturn, and above 50 is a boom. The United States is now close to 56%, and it is several months in a row.
Delegates, invited by the General Assembly, let me talk about this year and the macroeconomic situation and policies of the 12th Five-Year Plan. I mainly talk about five questions for your reference.
I. Understanding of the international economic situation during 2010 and December. In combination with the development of the machine tool industry, changes in domestic and international demand, it is necessary to study the short-term, medium- and long-term development of the industry.
Second, the second half of 2008 and 2009 were the time when the global financial crisis expanded and spread, which was a very difficult time. The situation in 2010 is more complicated. How will the policy be introduced during the entire 12th Five-Year Plan period?
3. Has the domestic economy gone in the direction of the decline since last year? Is it up? Downstream? Is it entering the upswing cycle or is it a rebound in the decline?
4. The direction and characteristics of macroeconomic policies in the overall economic rise in 2010 and in the next few years.
5. In combination with the machine tool industry and the 12.5 plan, there will be big changes. There are major changes in the manufacturing field that need to be closely watched. Talk about personal ideas. I only talk about macros, not specializing in the environment, speaking about the environment. Great climate.
First, how is the global economic situation going?
There are two views, one is that the developed economies in developed countries, including the US and Europe, have not completed the financial crisis. According to a recent research report provided by the World Economic Forum, the crisis is not over, and it is necessary to guard against the second-step economic crisis, and it is considered to be a problem within the developed countries. This statement has been disclosed by various media and is the main view. Another view is that the important reason why the crisis has not ended is that the bubble caused by the proliferation of financial derivatives from developed countries has just melted into developing countries and developing economies, and the problems of developing countries will continue to be exposed one by one. Come out, so I think that Europe and the United States do not represent the entire world economy, because there are still many difficulties in the relatively small economies such as debt crisis and unemployment. The sound of these two views is still very big. My idea is that these two views are factual and well-founded, but it does not see the mainstream. It is not seen that after China's accession to the WTO, emerging economies have become the driving force and evolution of the global economy.
I believe that the economy will see a full and comprehensive recovery in 2010. The reason for this optimistic judgment is supported by the global macroeconomic status and microeconomic data.
The global economy is divided into several categories, first of all resource economies. Such as Australia, Brazil, India, Russia, the Middle East and other economies dominated by oil, ore, non-ferrous metals and other raw materials. Australia's economy grew in the fourth quarter of last year, Brazil and Russia were later, and Russia's industrial economy improved after October. The export volume, export value and export efficiency of oil and natural gas are all improving. Although there are events in the Middle East that have attracted public attention from Dubai media, I believe that as long as the oil is around 75-80 US dollars or more, the self-protection and upgrading ability of the entire Middle East is still strong. Dubai does not have a lot of oil in its place. The proportion of the economy is not very large, and only 25.6 billion of the 90 billion debts are to be repaid. The key is the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iran in the Middle East. The oil is between 75% and 80%, and the trade and fiscal revenues are indeed very good.
The Indian economy is similar to China's four quarters last year and has been playing against China. India is not only a new economy, but other aspects are also developing. This is a resource economy.
Followed by three sectors of developed countries in Europe, the United States and Japan. The three sectors account for a very large proportion of the world's 55 trillion total GDP. The United States itself is 15 trillion. Observing the Nordic and Japanese economies, the total GDP of the United States has increased in the third quarter, which is the first quarter of positive growth after the negative growth in the first half of last year. We are concerned about whether it is growing in the first quarter and second quarter of this year. My views and reasons are:
(1) Look at the US economy: The company has already lived and started to make a profit. Orders and capital flow account recovery are improving in the automotive industry.
(2) The recovery of production activities in the United States and the acceleration of innovation. For example, automobiles, new energy, and biopharmaceuticals are all improving. I noticed that the productivity of their industry is improving. The productivity in the third quarter of October last year was about 8%. This is very important. Seeing that the US economy cannot be like China, it only depends on investment, consumption, and industrial added value. The key is whether his productivity has increased. Productivity improvement is a very important sign.
(3) The United States mainly grew its exports before November 2009, and imports began to increase sharply in November, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Explain that the demand for US imports of imported goods has increased, indicating that income has improved. Although the unemployment rate is still high, labor income is not much, but wealth income increases. For example, the stock market, the Dow Jones index rose from 6,500 points to 10,800 points in March. The United States, whether it is a state institution or a family, holds a large number of property rights benefits such as bonds and stocks.
(4) In the United States, new indicators such as the Purchasing Managers Index (PRR) are mostly based on manufacturing, and the United States has reached 55.9%. Below 50 is a downturn, and above 50 is a boom. The United States is now close to 56%, and it is several months in a row.
(5) The US capital market, including futures, is moving up. I think it is a bull market. I have said this point. According to the numerical calculation standard, it takes more than 250 weeks to enter the inflection point, which is usually the case. Industrial production and GDP have been accelerating recently, so the US economy is good from these six or seven indicators.
(6) Analysis should look short. See if the overall recovery is critical to see the short board. Like buckets, shortboards are good for extended lifts, meaning that water capacity is increasing. There are only two short boards. Which two short boards?
The first short board is real estate. The United States was poor in the first three quarters of last year. However, in the fourth quarter, especially in November, the sales of second-hand houses, investment in old houses, new houses and new homes increased. And the demand for real estate is expected to increase recently. The important source of the US subprime mortgage crisis was real estate. After the fever, the bubble burst caused various financial chain disruptions and caused a financial crisis. I think if real estate starts to recover after the government rescues the market, it should seize the opportunity of this subprime mortgage crisis to become a global financial crisis. Everyone should pay attention to the recent movement of the mainland's capital to the United States.
The second short board is the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate in the United States is now high. Less than 5% before the crisis, it has increased to 10.2% in October last year. The US unemployment rate is a very important indicator for judging the total economy, but what I am talking about is watching the dynamics, depends on whether it continues to rise? Still flat? Still the trend? I think it is Article 3. Because it was 10% in November and December last year, it did not go up. More importantly, the weekly index of unemployment benefits in the United States was 550,000 in October, and now it is 430,000 and 440,000. If the number of applicants for unemployment benefits is around 400,000, it means a comprehensive recovery of the US economy, which is defined by historical data. These are two short boards.
The short board is rising upwards. I think that the US economy will be unexpected in 2010, including the expectations of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. GDP will show significant growth. I think it will reach the level of 13.05% annual growth in the United States from 1978 to 2008.
GDP growth is above 3, and the upward trend is certain. There are some small economies in the 15 countries of the Eurozone, but there are two most important economies, one is Germany and the other is France. The German economy grew by 0.5% from the previous month, and France's recent industrial growth exceeded 1.2%. The reason why Germany and France grew was because of the export of Chinese equipment. Including automobiles, including chemical products, including medical devices. The increase in German exports has also led to the production of spare parts. The German economy is a very important country among the 15 countries of the Eurozone and the 27 member states of the European Union. I used to look at the UK and now I look at Germany and France. France is an Airbus order for China and others. The impact of the financial crisis on the UK is greater than that of the United States and other European countries, including Japan.
There are several recent phenomena in the UK that are worth noting:
1 Since last year, real estate has started to recover; 2CPI increased by 2.9% in December compared with December 2008; 3 UK industrial production is recovering recently, mainly in the industrial sector; non-US economy is mainly Japan. Japan was not good last September, but exports to China, including machinery, automobiles, machine tools, and electrical appliances in the construction sector, have grown substantially. Any resource economy with a high degree of closeness to China is also a good producer of developed economies. Turn around.
In short, the global economy is turning better and the trend is upward. Confidence indicators, new indicators, import and export indicators, output value indicators, and demand indicators have all come up, only employment indicators are worse. I have come to the conclusion that the global economy is recovering and the recovery is accelerating.
2. What are the policies of governments after the recovery?
The US government rescued the market at all costs, spending more than $700 billion, and the US Federal Reserve Bank recently earned tens of billions. In 2010, the global economy entered a three- to five-year rising cycle, and financial recovery was faster than expected. In the second half of 2010 or earlier, adjustments were made by appropriately shrinking liquidity funds and raising interest rates. It is now the lowest benchmark interest rate in the history of the world. The United States is 0.25%, the United Kingdom 0.5%, Europe 0.5%, Japan 0.11%, Australia added 3 times, each time added 0.25%, Vietnam plus once, Norway plus once, Israel plus once, India plus once, China 18th officially The upward adjustment was adjusted from 13.5% to 14%. The conclusion is: in 2010 and in the next few years, the introduction of a policy that uses monetary tightening as the main signal is inevitable. The first paragraph of each period of economic rise is shrinking. This contraction is not a retreat, but a contraction of when to the possible marginal effect. Investment arrangements at the time of marginal effects should be cautious.
Third, China's economic trends
The analysis of China's economic trends was bottomed out in the first half of 2010 and rebounded in the second half. The annual growth rate is around 8.3%. There are two main forces in the recovery:
One force is driven by the government. 4 trillion pulls, investing 1.9 trillion yuan in energy, and investment in people's livelihood, including improving nursing homes, schools, water conservancy projects, and rivers and rivers;
The second force is private investment and social capital investment. The increase in effective market demand this year, such as the demand for machine tools, will increase significantly compared to last year. There are big demands for the manufacture of high-speed rail, such as automobiles, airplanes, aviation, railroads, transportation equipment, high-speed rail, electrification equipment, information equipment, textile machinery, petroleum equipment, agricultural machinery equipment, construction machinery, environmental protection equipment, medical equipment, etc. Here, we must also talk about the four aspects that should be highly noticed in informationization: consumption production, production service, service information, and information for the whole people.
The demand for domestic demand in the manufacturing sector is expanding and is increasing substantially. There is a demand for the company's own upgrade, and the original export in the export demand is no longer the general rough processing export, but the export of the whole set of equipment and parts and equipment. To talk about this year's economy is to give everyone confidence, not to hesitate too much, to take advantage of the cycle of economic growth, investment in industry and trade and investment in social capital. It is the best time in the next 15 to 20 years. Investment arrangements. I don't think there is overheating, nor can it be excessive.
This year's domestic economic growth has several characteristics:
(1) A new cyclical trend has emerged. After seven years of adjustment, the government's measures are super strong. After the financial crisis, the economic downturn, the recovery, and the recovery, the old one is over and a new trend has begun. According to the convention, there will be rapid development of 3 to 5 years.
(2) The growth of the three major demands:
1 The growth of export demand. Export demand this year is better than 2009. I have noticed orders from the Pearl River Delta, orders for the Yangtze River Delta, orders for clothing and chemical products, and the Canton Fair for October are much better than the first half of the year, and the order signing rate has increased. This year's exports have fallen sharply in the third quarter of last year. If the structure is adjusted, competitive enterprises will rise. To grasp the export orders.
2 Demand for investment products and consumer goods increased. Car subsidies to the countryside, support for home appliances renewal, fiscal revenues close to double-digit growth, corporate income, 50% tax revenue double-digit growth, increase in disposable income of urban and rural residents, increase in employment, and new labor market Changes will improve this year. In 2009, we are doing everything possible to maintain growth. 2010 is not a question of security but a market stabilization and economic stability.
3 The development needs of the capital market. China's real estate market and stock market will not have big problems. We need the development of the capital market. China is a big country, and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises cannot be without capital markets. We must promote the development of physical capital and use capital leverage to develop our economy. It is the second revolution to lubricate physical capital with financial capital.
The machine tool industry has to do five-year and ten-year planning to be the world's number one. Equity and credit are the driving force for the growth of our strength. The human economy has two major inventions, one is the free economy and the other is the capital market. This is a major creation of human economic development. You can't worry about having risks, you don't talk about development, and you have risks to make a profit. After the equity restructuring, financial innovation will develop at an unexpected rate. Machine tool companies can't always sell machine tools honestly, and companies without financial capital awareness are not good companies. To sell our added value, sell your own expansion, and sell your own market share. The development of the financial capital market this year will be very fast and a new trend. It is recommended that the government should guard against risks and prevent bubbles. Prevention is for development, and the development of funds in this market must be adhered to from beginning to end. Everyone is worried about the high expansion and expansion is phased. There have been two costs in 30 years, the rate of increase in the 1980s was 7.8%, and the last 10 years was 2.6. I don't think there will be high inflation if the policy does not appear blind. This year, our economic food stocks are abundant; meat, poultry, and eggs are rich in non-staple food; there is no problem in home appliance production; plus policy is early, and the level of decision-making is in place, so that supply and demand are under control.
Fourth, the direction and characteristics of the 2010 policy
The 2010 policy is different from that of 2009 and is a conditional two-way adjustment. Last year was a one-way relaxation. This year, it is mainly to adjust taxes, expand the production capacity of enterprises, and adjust the tax rate. At present, GDP has too much fiscal revenue, and the company's own financial resources are not enough. Some resource taxes and environmental taxes should be improved, but they are conducive to independent innovation, are conducive to the development of high-end, are conducive to expanding consumer demand, and are conducive to the improvement of people's livelihood, both addition and subtraction, and reduction in development capabilities. This year's rate hike is inevitable. Let's look at the trend of CPI and look at the trend of US policy. From the perspective of the market and the interest rate cost cycle, it is low in the first half and high in the second half. It is necessary to determine the proportion of investment portfolios and layout investments in different years of the rising cycle based on the rising trend of financing costs. This year's policy changes will be more, do not worry, are conditional two-way fine-tuning.
5. In combination with the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, what are the major changes that need to be closely watched?
(1) Global rebalancing. The United States now imports more and China exports more. China must quickly adjust its product mix, and low-priced, low-level products must be improved. The machine tool should be medium to high. Now the weapons, aircraft æ¼ 10, except the engine are our own. The engine is flying and flying. Our space satellites, Haier wireless transmissions for home appliances, wireless transmission of signals, and wireless transmission of networks are made in China. Some of China's manufacturing is a combination of Chinese and Western. China has the advantage of labor, machine tool manufacturing experience, CNC technology patents are growing rapidly, and marine port exploration machinery is also developing rapidly. Our human capital and technical level have the ability to impact in the mid to high range. International pressure is forcing you to move forward. This is a big challenge.
(2) From a strategic point of view, the demand brought about during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period includes new energy, new materials, new medicine, information technology, manufacturing, and nuclear power equipment, transportation equipment, building energy-saving equipment, and grid intelligence. And so on, the information sensing technology strategy industry, when absorbing this piece, must be sensitive, forward-looking and savvy. Be sure to look forward to how much technical support there is in China, which can drive the world's exports.
(3) Pay attention to several changes during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period when arranging production:
The first is aging, and the second is the deepening of industrial development and the modernization combined with modern services. The expansion of the development space vector, the upgrading of the east, the development of the southeast coast is very fast. Small enterprises in Kunshan and Shanghai have made progress in manufacturing, numerical control, process informationization, and marketing networkization to industrialization. Third, urbanization has developed to a deeper level, and urbanization of migrant workers has to be solved. Fourth, internationalization . To broaden your thinking, it is also a machine tool. You should see something like a machine tool other than a machine tool and see additional value. It is necessary to see things other than things, because informatization makes material production easier.
Enterprises are under pressure to increase their competitiveness. Increasing the share, improving product quality and improving the quality of service are both stressful and challenging. The world is Chinese, and China is global. The competitiveness of Chinese companies has been tested by the world. Chinese enterprises must be self-reliant and must be chased forward. Now there is quantity and quality. There are several world firsts in China, with raw materials first, coal first, steel first, machine tool orders first, auto orders first, ... China's aircraft will be the first in 10 years.
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Major changes in the 12th Five-Year Machine Tools Manufacturing Industry
Report by Vice President Chen Dongqi of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission at the 6th Standing Committee of China Machine Tool Industry Association