Jinyuan Futures: Aluminum and zinc plummeted to lead other metals

Last Friday, LME's 6 metals fell across the board, especially the aluminum and zinc prices. Although they were not as good as other metals in the price drop, they have already surpassed other base metals. In addition, all commodities showed a downward trend last Friday, crude oil and gold are both negative, and the prices of agricultural products that have been strong in the previous period have also shown a trend of falling back.
In terms of spot of aluminum ingots, although the aluminum spot market price in Shanghai rose last week, some aluminum ingots have been sent to Shanghai in the latter half of the week, and many of them have come from domestic aluminum mills to meet the needs of delivery and consumption, and with the supply of After arriving one after another, it is expected that stocks in the future market will grow, and the tight supply of the market will be eased.
In terms of importing copper, the import of copper from the former zero-tariff shipments from Chile this week has arrived in Shanghai with a volume of 10,000 tons. With the continuous improvement of copper trading conditions, there will be several shipments of zero-tariff imported copper arriving in Hong Kong. The stalemate in maintaining the scarcity of imported copper for many months was broken, which will put pressure on the supply of the domestic spot market. In terms of LME inventory, LME stocks continued to increase on Friday night, and now it is close to 150,000 tons, which has increased monthly inventory by more than 40,000 tons. According to the data released by the CFTC, the current fund holdings are 10,000 net short positions, most of which are held by CTA funds, and from the recent increase in inventories from the New Orleans area of ​​the United States, it should be this batch of short-selling funds, and a large number. While all commodities showed a decline at the same time last Friday, the fund started to sell in the base metal market, aluminum and zinc have declined, and copper has broken down the early period. The crude oil and gold have also closed negatively, and prices have fallen.
The market outlook for copper prices, because the current LME copper position is only 220,000, while the aluminum price is 560,000 positions, far higher than the copper positions, so there are more short-term profit positions on aluminum prices, if If these positions have further liquidation pressure, they will inevitably continue to affect the prices of other metals. Therefore, with regard to the market price of metal, we must also pay attention to changes in LME stocks and positions. However, if zinc, nickel and other early-stage leading metals cannot effectively return to the previous period, metal prices will have a harder time to rebound and may continue to fall. .

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