The coal market is expected to stabilize in the future

Under the influence of the full implementation of the coal resource tax on December 1 and the lead price increase by Shenhua Group, the port coal price rose as expected, but the downstream thermal power users did not buy it. During the three-day period during which thermal coal prices rose, only four ships were shipped to Qinhuangdao Port for shipment. Severe conditions are rare.

It is understood that after Shenhua took the lead in raising the price of coastal thermal coal in December, China Coal and its coal have risen by 15 yuan/ton. Among them, the Pingdingshan Coal Co., Ltd., due to the high content of *, has only raised its price by 12 yuan/ton. In addition, although China Coal's preferential policies did not change from November, it increased the volume discount in December.

In the context of the overall weakness of the coastal coal market, the main reason why large coal companies have raised their coal prices in a contrarian direction is supported by policies. In addition, the coal resources tax will be implemented nationwide from the point of view of the cost-levying reform. The incentive for the local provinces to maintain coal prices will be further enhanced.

The tax rate of the current coal resource tax is determined by the provincial government within the prescribed range, and the tax rate range given is from 2% to 10%, while the coal resource tax rate reported by Shanxi Province is 8%. It is awaiting the approval of the Ministry of Finance. In the case where most coal-producing provinces have reduced or cancelled some fees, apart from the higher coal resource tax rates measured by some coal companies in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, the actual tax rate estimated by most companies is between 1% and 4%. .

The impact of a series of measures such as Shenhua, China Coal, and other large companies taking the lead in capping and insuring prices, and the relevant authorities restricting the number of imported coal companies from accepting imported coal has continued to rise, and in the short term, it is indeed beneficial to the domestic coal industry and it is also beneficial to the domestic coal industry. Stabilize the employment of coal-staff workers and some local taxes.

Compared with the upstream resource industry’s price increase expectations, downstream thermal power users do not buy it. Most users are in wait-and-see mode. Purchasing enthusiasm is reduced to a historical low, and the number of shipping vessels is also continuously decreasing. A large number of coal deposits are in the port and no one is interested. The price game between the two sides of the electricity has once again increased.

Qinhuangdao port statistics show that on the 1st day of the Shenhua price increase, Qinzhou anchorage ship to be installed fell to 27 ships, of which the already-scheduled boat suddenly dropped to a level. On the 2nd, the number of ships to be loaded on the anchorage of the Qin Harbor fell to 17, of which only one had already been processed. As of the early morning of the 3rd, the number of ships to be loaded on the Qinhuangdao port anchorage was once again set at a new low of 13 vessels, of which only two had already been handled. The port operations situation was the worst in four years and the situation was very severe.

Analyst Wang Xufeng said that on the 3rd day, Qinhuangdao port coal stocks soared 150,000 tons in a day, reaching 6.74 million tons, which was the highest level of coal deposits in the past four months, and the pressure of destocking in ports has continued to increase. If there is still no significant improvement in the shipment of rough ships in the short term, the port inventory will continue to rise, breaking the 7 million tons mark is just around the corner.

Although the coal for winter heating has gradually entered the peak period with the drop of temperature, the downstream demand still shows a trend of no flourishing in the peak season, which makes it difficult to significantly increase the power load, and the power group has a low incentive to pull. According to the latest statistics, the total daily consumption of the major coastal power groups fell to 570,000 tons, while the electricity coal stocks rebounded slightly to nearly 13.8 million tons, and the number of days available for storing coal jumped to 24.2 days.

In the face of downstream buyers of coal-fired power, coal expert Li Ting said that if Shenhua can continue to increase prices, the domestic coal market is expected to enter a relatively long period of stability, even if many downstream users are unwilling to accept it. The reality of Shenhua’s continued price hike will sooner or later be accepted. On the contrary, if Shenhua once again cuts coal prices due to short-term market pressure, the coal market may experience a worse situation in the future.