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On one side to heaven, the other side may go to hell.
The development model of China's solar photovoltaic power generation application market is going through a fork in the road – either it may gradually form a virtuous cycle of commercial development, or it may eventually become a non-marketing industry that is under the government.
This kind of dilemma is caused by the debates issued by the National Development and Reform Commission's "Notice on Improving the Price Policy for Photovoltaic Power Generation", which is more prominent in front of public opinion. The rumors that the relevant policies will be introduced in the near future are in vain. Perhaps it also indicates that there is still some kind of game and trade-off for the subsequent development direction.
Although the cost is still higher than the traditional fossil energy, with the participation of government subsidies, the use of pre-designed cost sharing and benefit distribution model, the commercialization of photovoltaic power generation to the society has been proved to be achievable, this is Germany and The successful development model in Europe, the United States, Japan and other regions is evidence.
However, although the whole society has the responsibility and obligation to bear the cost of clean development, the model of the burden of new energy development by the whole people is still facing increasing challenges. The biggest controversy is who should take greater responsibility for emissions and pollution?
At a time when the contradiction between development and environmental protection is increasingly prominent, this has become one of the core issues in the international geopolitical game.
The solution to the problem has long been achieved by first developing countries and regions and those with large emissions, backward development areas and clean energy suppliers, and purchasing the high-cost part of their clean development to reduce emissions and promote cleanliness. The marketization of energy prices.
This model is widely regarded as the best mechanism to promote clean development. Among them, carbon emission reduction trading and carbon tax are considered to be scientific and reasonable in design.
However, the theoretically beautiful model does not necessarily work in reality. This kind of model can be implemented on a global scale or within a country. The reason why it is difficult to implement, the biggest resistance is undoubtedly the game from the stakeholders involved. The global market is no exception, the domestic market is no exception.
Controversial draft
A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a draft of the "Notice on Improving the Photovoltaic Power Price Policy" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinion Draft") to some government agencies and photovoltaic power generation enterprises, which once triggered a heated debate in the industry.
According to the different solar energy resources in different regions, the "Opinion Draft" divides the country into four types of solar energy resource zones, and has developed corresponding grid tariffs. At the same time, a distinction is also made between distributed generation and large-scale ground power plants.
Objectively speaking, the "Opinion Draft" has made some obvious progress on the basis of the previous one. In addition to the difference in the regional benchmark on-grid price, which reflects the difference between resources and income more reasonably, it is clear for the first time that the high-priced acquisition period of photovoltaic power is 20 years. It is undoubtedly a reassurance given to PV power investors.
Qi Haifeng, CEO of Zhongsheng Optoelectronics Group, believes that this policy is more detailed and more targeted than the 2011 PV on-grid tariff policy.
However, most of the industry insiders interviewed by the reporters believe that the benchmark electricity price in the “Opinion Draft†from 0.75 yuan to 1.00 yuan in the Class I resource area to the IV resource area is significantly lower than the current investment return demand; The draft still fails to address some of the focus issues that PV power investors are paying more attention to.
Li Yun, sales director of Fu Nengshi (Shanghai) Trading Co., Ltd. believes that 2 to 3 cents should be added on the basis of the draft opinion. Otherwise, “without reasonable returns, the development of the entire market will be inhibited, especially for the lack of In terms of financially supported private capital investment, he said that the market is not short of funds, as long as there is a reasonable expectation of return on investment, there will naturally be a matching amount of funds to enter.
According to Zhou Xuebin, general manager of Tianwei (Chengdu) Solar Thermal Power Development Co., Ltd., the subsidy of electricity price by region is still an extensive subsidy method, because there are many sensitive factors related to the income of solar power generation, such as solar energy resources and energy. Demand, land, natural environment, etc. However, Zhou Xuebin also said that the development process of a new industry will inevitably go from disorder to order to standard operation. Therefore, it is neither optimistic nor too pessimistic to calmly analyze and treat the upcoming electricity price policy.
Professor Xu Zheng, director of the Institute of Solar Energy, School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, said: "The timely settlement of electricity prices is the most concerned issue for everyone, and there should be a clear time (settlement subsidy) time node." But he also said that the draft It only reflects the general direction of national policies, and it is not a specific subsidy policy.
Lu Jianzhou, general manager of Shanghai Taoke Network Technology Co., Ltd. also believes that the draft of such large-scale financial subsidy policy will generally be lower than market expectations, and then adjusted after receiving market feedback.
However, Su Weili, the chairman of independent power operator Tianhua Sunshine Holdings Co., Ltd., gave a more pessimistic evaluation of the "Opinion Draft". He said that from the "Opinion Draft", it is difficult to see the hope that this market can develop.
"Actually, whether it is the five major power groups or energy investment companies, everyone is not so concerned about the specific price of electricity. Everyone cares more about two points. The first is the issue of limited payment, and the second is the timely settlement of subsidies. The two are the life gates of China's PV market.†Su Weili believes that if you can't give a clear solution to these two core problems, investing in PV power plants in China, even if some companies can earn money in the short term, this market It is also difficult to develop, and it is difficult to form a virtuous circle because “it is impossible to form a model that can be commercialized.â€
For specific electricity prices, Suvilly does not think it is the most important. "Future PV subsidy price is definitely a downward trend. No matter whether it is adjusted or not, the downward trend is certain, and the concept of 1 yuan will be broken sooner or later," he said.
However, for the issue of limited transmission, Suweili attaches great importance to it. "This is the issue that investors should pay most attention to. The domestic wind power market is already the best way to learn from it. Now, enterprises that hold wind power, including central enterprises, suffer from it. The losses incurred by the company are very serious. This kind of loss is still the part of the grid that is recognized by the grid. In fact, there are still a lot of electricity that is not recognized by people."
Commercialization
Many people believe that the commercial development of photovoltaic power generation lies in the fact that its cost can achieve parity competition with thermal power. In fact, this may be a misunderstanding of the development of new energy sources such as photovoltaics.
An energy expert who did not want to be named said that for the time being, whether the cost of traditional energy sources such as thermal power is calculated scientifically and whether it covers the cost of environmental damage, only the subsidies for traditional electricity are hidden under the government subsidy. The ratio is not necessarily lower than photovoltaic power generation. Therefore, "on the basis of financial subsidies, photovoltaic power generation can fully implement a commercialized and market-oriented development model. Isn't this the development of photovoltaic power in European countries such as Germany?"
Xu Zheng believes that state subsidies should never become the mainstay of the development of the photovoltaic industry. He said that with the global energy crisis and the worsening climate environment, clean energy has received more and more attention. The development of low-carbon economy has become the consensus of all countries in the world in recent years. A more scientific and reasonable approach should be the trading of carbon emission reduction rights and the development of funds for collecting clean energy by collecting carbon taxes.
In the context of the increasingly severe environmental and energy crisis, Xu Zheng believes that it should “reduce the consumption of high-carbon energy such as coal and oil as much as possible, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and encourage traditional power stations (such as thermal power) to purchase carbon emissions from photovoltaic power generation. To revitalize and develop the photovoltaic industry."
For Zhou Xuebin, the six years in the photovoltaic industry is like riding a roller coaster, thrilling and exciting. He believes that the most important issue in the photovoltaic industry is the top-level design of the industry. From the manufacturing to the application market, it is necessary to make a master plan based on the rules of market competition, rather than the problem-solving problem of headaches and pains. .
Regarding policy hesitation, in the perspective of Suweili, who has many years of experience in investing in overseas PV power plants, “this depends on how much the government wants to pay in the development of energy conservation, environmental protection and new energy.†Su Weili said that China's photovoltaic industry Previously, the manufacturing-based development model was based on the export of foreign exchange, so the management and local governments strongly supported it. "But now I have to pay for it myself, and I began to hesitate."
Su Weili said that if the government does not want to pay, there are ways to adopt a green certificate system and a carbon trading system, such as Romania, New Jersey and other countries and regions. "Whoever consumes high energy and emits high carbon dioxide is converted into carbon dioxide per ton." How much money, this money is earmarked. For example, if I am a solar power station, how much carbon dioxide is reduced by my power station, I can get the corresponding emission reduction money from the government. It can also allow direct transactions between enterprises, that is, The implementation of market-based trading of green certificates. This market-oriented approach can quickly reduce the cost of carbon trading through market means, and promote the reduction of the costs of all parties, and ultimately form a virtuous circle."
In the view of the above energy experts, many industries involving major national interests cannot actually be called full commercial development, but part of the market-oriented operation under the policy and financial subsidies, including energy, railway and other industries. No, this is not the case. "Actually, this is still a problem of understanding and a problem that is both important and important." He said that from the long-term perspective of energy security and national security, the development of clean energy is an inevitable direction, and there are problems in photovoltaic power generation. It is necessary to gradually promote the advancement of technology in development, rather than waiting until the technology matures to develop.
Interest behind the glass door
In Suvelly's view, in the current market environment, apart from the upstream manufacturing enterprises, I am afraid that only two companies can continue to invest in power stations. "First, there is a lot of money, and it doesn't care about short-term profits. It can withstand years of losses, just for the status of the industry and some strategic investors like Internet resources. They may think that in the long run, electricity demand is growing, and the limit is also For the time being, the resources are occupied first, such companies are there; the second is not to regard wind power or photovoltaics as the only business, but just a useful supplement, a company that is worthy or does not care whether this part of the investment is profitable. Their purpose is to enter the energy conservation and environmental protection industry, and the clean energy business accounts for a small proportion of the entire plate of these companies."
As an early proposer of asset securitization of domestic PV power plants, Su Weili received many invitations and hoped that he could participate in the asset securitization design of some PV power plant projects, but he refused.
Su Weili believes that only on the basis of clarifying the above two core issues, the asset value of photovoltaic power plants can be evaluated, the business logic of investing in photovoltaic power plants can be established, and the possibility of asset securitization can be achieved. "If these policies are unclear, PV power plant investment in China may become a public welfare undertaking. The public welfare industry does not make money without making money, such as building roads. Some roads must be repaired because people have to walk."
Previously, many market analysts predicted that after the national "two sessions" in 2013, the policy on the photovoltaic power generation market will be clear. However, it has been two months since the end of the "two sessions". Apart from the fact that the dispute over the "Opinion Draft" has not disappeared, the photovoltaic industry seems to have become deserted. Many industry insiders interviewed by reporters said that this year's 10GW planning goal is difficult to complete due to such waiting and waiting.
The dystocia of policy, in the eyes of the aforementioned energy experts, is mainly because no one intends to become a payer. He believes that no matter which kind of subsidy fund raising model is adopted, in the end, there will always be people who come to pay for the development of clean energy, no matter who pays and who benefits. In his view, whether it is the emission reduction transaction or the carbon tax, the buyers who buy it may be more state-owned enterprises and central enterprises.
And this may be the problem.
Many people in the industry believe that in the current market environment, if China's PV manufacturing industry fully counts on the Chinese market, it will not be redeemed. As a result, the reshuffle and asset restructuring of the photovoltaic industry may be a mainstream in 2013. There may be many PV manufacturing assets that are absorbed or acquired by some central enterprises and state-owned enterprises at zero or very low cost.
A more pessimistic PV listed company executive said that this year, the PV industry's national advancement and retreat may be a general trend. Whoever can be merged by central enterprises or state-owned enterprises, who can survive. "Maybe, when the private enterprise withdraws from the industry, the industry will really get better." He said with a very complicated mood.
However, pessimists also have optimistic times. Suweili believes that as long as the issue of limited emission and subsidies is solved, it is only necessary to give a time road map for the decline in electricity prices, so that investors can have a clear expectation for the future and urge them to carry out technological innovation according to the road map. , cost management, resource allocation, etc., may revitalize the entire Chinese PV industry.
"I am not afraid of the price drop, I am afraid I don't know when it will fall. I am not afraid of not knowing the price of electricity. I am afraid I don't know how much electricity I will buy." In Suvelly's view, as long as the policies and systems are legalized and clear, China's photovoltaic power generation The healthy development of the market is not a problem.
And if everything is unknowable and unpredictable, I don’t know when the government will issue policies, and I don’t know when subsidies will be available. Such an environment will inevitably lead to the development of the entire industry. “Now the upstream manufacturers have become downstream investors, and everyone has embarked on a road of no return. And they should have been down-to-earth to study their own manufacturing technology, and then upgrade one processing enterprise into a real high-tech enterprise. Why are SunPower and FirstSolar having high market capitalization? Because they have their own technology," said Suvilly.
In his view, the core issue of China's PV industry development is not the question of whether it can be commercialized, but the government's preparation to coordinate the social integration of funds to pay for the development of clean energy and energy conservation and emission reduction. He said that if it is not limited, if the subsidy is issued in a timely manner, the low price of electricity will not matter much. As long as the income can cover the financial cost, there will be a lot of capital willing to enter this market, and the cost that the government needs to bear can actually be very low. .
PV subsidy "opinion draft"
Abstract Adopting the pre-designed cost sharing and benefit distribution model, the commercialization of photovoltaic power generation to the society has been proved to be achievable. On one side to heaven, the other side may go to hell. Chinese sun
With the pre-designed cost sharing and benefit distribution model, the commercialization of photovoltaic power generation to the society has been proved to be achievable.